Sunday, October 31, 2021

Vitamin D blood levels and Covid risk


Quintiles, Vitamin D blood levels in senior citizens by various regions. Source
Quintiles hold 20% of the tested population.

This paper suggests that blood Vitamin D levels over 50 ng/ml have a VERY high level of protection against Covid morality mortality. VERY high meaning "close to zero morality", a term rarely used by statisticians or doctors.

One of the nagging question addressed by this paper is the question "Do low Vitamin D levels imply risk or does Covid reduce Vitamin D levels?" It is a chicken-or-egg question. This study attempted to resolve that question by focusing on Vitamin D levels "...preinfection or on the day of hospital admission..."


Regression suggested a theoretical point of zero mortality at approximately 50 ng/mL D3.

The datasets provide strong evidence that low D3 is a predictor rather than just a side effect of the infection. Despite ongoing vaccinations, we recommend raising serum 25(OH)D levels to above 50 ng/mL to prevent or mitigate new outbreaks due to escape mutations or decreasing antibody activity.  Emphasis mine.

The red line added to the table of numbers shows how many quintiles have fewer than 50 ng/ml.

ESTHER is a German study of about 10,000 people

Tromso is a Norwegian study of 37,000

MONICA/KORA is a study out of Bavaria of 13,000 participants

SENECA is a numerically small study (2000 participants) that included residents of Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Poland, Hungary, Norway and Greece.

HAPIEE is from Eastern Europe and the data is from Czechoslovakia, Poland and Lithuania. The non-normal looking data between quintiles for the countries on the Baltic may be due to non-fish-eaters and fish-eaters.

NHANES is from the United States and had approximately 30,000 participants.


Approximately 20% of US citizens between the ages of 50 and 79 have Vitamin D titers that put them in the at-risk category for Covid mortality.

Between 40% and 100% of that age group in Europe is in the at-risk category. Data from Europe shows a high degree of regional variability.

Vitamin D is available as an inexpensive, dietary supplement.

Hat-tip CoyoteKen


  1. There is an alternative explanation. Vitamin D levels are positively associated with exposure to sunlight. Exposure to sunlight is positively associated with being outdoors. Being outdoors lowers the risk of getting respiratory diseases.

    I recall several months ago an article about how poorly Florida was doing managing COVID and how well Massachusetts was doing comparatively. This was during summer and I wanted to post a comment that during summer, everyone in Mass is outside but everyone in Fl. is inside, so that might be responsible for the difference rather that governmental policies. Unfortunately, Yahoo news doesn't allow comments anymore. I note that since the weather has gotten cooler, the Florida rates have gotten a lot lower.

    1. Great points.

      In the North, the UVB levels drop even during peak daylight hours due to the miles of atmosphere the slanting rays of the sun must drill through.

      I don't see spending time outside and supplementing with dietary D as mutually exclusive.

    2. Should have read "...UVB levels during the late-fall and winter..."

    Put your mask on
    shut up and
    get dozens of vaccines.
    (place the internet's largest sarc tag here)
    Yep, early on there was a lot of data, information, suggestion etc that vitamin D was a key factor.

    1. My plan to avoid being cancelled is to present information with very little editorializing.

      I am counting on guys like you to take care of the editorializing in comments.


  3. And, as I pointed out months ago, this is why the Urban African-ancestored folks have a higher risk....they don't get outdoor enough and they have darker skin so they make less D when (if) they do get outside.... add that to a diet that is lacking in D and you get what you get.
    No racism involved....

  4. I snickered when I read your first paragraph. "Close to zero morality". I know it was supposed to be "mortality", but I like it better that way. Certainly explains ALL government, Fauci, many doctors, etc. Maybe it was on purpose? Freudian slip?

  5. This past summer we had a nasty cold run through the place my wife and I work. 7 of 10 got sick and one died. I did not test positive for "Covid" but my wife did and several others did too. My wife called her Dr. and was told to take 1000 Vit C, 50 zinc and Vit D3 three times a day. We already take supplements so it was no big deal for us. The guy who died was 71, way over weight, ate a very unhealthy fast food diet, drank too much and was an undiagnosed diabetic. He also suffered from depression. He went to the hospital and was dead a week later.

  6. In January 2020 I was still living in WI. I had just broken my arm and was housebound more than normal for an old coot. Some of the blogs I read are written by prior military like I am. Ex Mil were fleeing the Far East do to some “Bug”.
    I was already taking some extra Vitamin D daily because winter. Then somebody suggested Dr. Joseph Campbell in the UK and his view point on Vit, D. It made sense to me. I increased my D to 5,000 iu daily and kept that up until just recently when I dropped them to 2,000 iu daily. I also take 1,000 mg of Vit C daily and when I have to go out amongst humans I take 50mg of Zinc. So far I've been healthy.

  7. I've been taking 2000IU supplements since 2019. So far, so good. Also 1500 Vitamin C daily.

  8. Just doodling on dosage here. I think i need a check on my work.

    50 ng/ml. The body contains about 7 l of water in the blood, 15 l in the tissue fluid and 20 l of water inside the cells. Adds up to 40 l (rounding for napkin math.)
    Thats 40,000 ml of fluid. Times 50 ng/ml equals 2,000,000 (two million) ng of vitamin D.
    Devide by 1000 ng/mcg equals 2000 mcg of vitamin D.
    Devide by 125 mcg per vitamin D capsule (the large 5000u) is 16 tablets of the large size every day.

    THAT SOUNDS EXCESSIVE. Can somebody with more smarts than me answer the essential question.

    How much is enough to get to 50ng/ml?

    1. I don't think you need to take the whole amount every day, it doesn't flush out and stays in your body a while -
      Vitamin D deficiency is common in climates with low levels of daily sunlight, since the body can make vitamin D in response to sunlight. Taking vitamin D supplements may help combat this problem. Because the metabolism of vitamin D is complex and excess amounts can be stored in fat and other tissues, it is difficult to determine how long a daily dose of vitamin D would stay in the body, but it appears that large doses will last for approximately two months.

  9. The Recommended Dietary Allowance (RDA, or 'Adequate Intake') of Vitamin D3 is 20 micrograms / day (800 IU) for people over 70. The Upper Tolerable Limit (UL), which is the highest amount the average person can take without risk, is 100 micrograms / day (4,000 IU). 30 minutes of direct sunshine should supply all the Vitamin D one needs.


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