This is a random, off-the-cuff observation. I don't have data to support it.
It is my belief that civil wars are most explosive in regions where there is a 45%-40%-15% composition of three factions, especially when the 15% is in the position to be the gate-keeper for some key resource.
The 15% can play the two sides against each other. The dynamics become wildly unpredictable. Ultimately, the 15% is the biggest loser as the two near-majorities have long memories.
The only demographics that I can think of that fit those percentages are: progressive, conservative and government drone...
ReplyDeleteWhat if "The Civil War" lights off in a patch-work fashion?
DeleteI think there are many metro areas that fall into roughly the
45%-40%-15% category.
Gah, Fred beat me to it... But I think the 'actual' conservative percentage is >50%
ReplyDeleteBeing stuck in a mixed area ("mixed" in this respect), I long ago read the Matt Bracken essays on this topic and kind of gave up, seeing as how I'm still stuck here.
ReplyDeleteI suppose there's still time to move to the countryside somewhere...
If you are looking at tribal/racial groups, Hispanics fit there. They mainly vote Democrat, but are trending more Republican lately.
ReplyDelete