Sunday, October 3, 2021

Civil wars and demographics

This is a random, off-the-cuff observation. I don't have data to support it.

It is my belief that civil wars are most explosive in regions where there is a 45%-40%-15% composition of three factions, especially when the 15% is in the position to be the gate-keeper for some key resource.

The 15% can play the two sides against each other. The dynamics become wildly unpredictable. Ultimately, the 15% is the biggest loser as the two near-majorities have long memories.


  1. The only demographics that I can think of that fit those percentages are: progressive, conservative and government drone...

    1. What if "The Civil War" lights off in a patch-work fashion?

      I think there are many metro areas that fall into roughly the
      45%-40%-15% category.

  2. Gah, Fred beat me to it... But I think the 'actual' conservative percentage is >50%

  3. Being stuck in a mixed area ("mixed" in this respect), I long ago read the Matt Bracken essays on this topic and kind of gave up, seeing as how I'm still stuck here.
    I suppose there's still time to move to the countryside somewhere...

  4. If you are looking at tribal/racial groups, Hispanics fit there. They mainly vote Democrat, but are trending more Republican lately.


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