Fine Art Tuesday

 

Michael R. Nelson was born in Sacramento, California in 1949 and is still alive.

His artwork can be purchased at Nelson Fine Arts. 

If Mr. Nelson objects to my posting low-resolution copies of his paintings, then leave a comment and I will take this post down. 

 

Copper toxicity

 

Kayser-Fleischer Rings

Markshere2 called me out in the comments of the last post.

Max out credit cards? Really?

Nothing short of bigass comet heading to wipe us out would make me max out credit cards.

Collapse in Egypt will crash the dollar / economy / international supply lines?

I'm missing something here. 

The thing is, I mostly agree with him and perhaps I did get carried away and resorted to hyperbole. However...

Background

One thing you will hear from old farmers who handled a lot of different kinds of livestock is that many types of farm animals can seem perfectly fine and then, out of nowhere, fall to the ground and die in a matter of minutes or hours.

One example of this is copper toxicity in sheep. Using trace-mineralized salt that is formulated for cattle can be a death sentence for sheep and you will never see it coming.

Sheep tend to accumulate copper. They are not very efficient at excreting excess-to-need. Perhaps they evolved in landscapes where copper is either rare or other mineral out-compete the copper absorbtion pathways.

Regardless of cause, the sheep's liver starts storing that excess copper and there is no safety relief-valve. Little-by-little the amount of copper in each liver cell increases until one cell dies due to copper toxicity. The cell autolyses (digests itself and releases its contents) and the surround cells absorb most of those nutrients...including the copper.

Those cells were already red-lining their capacity to absorb copper. The incoming jolt kills most of them. They, in turn, release their contents and neighboring cells absorb the copper they just dumped.

The number of cells dying increases as the sphere-of-death expands outward. In time, the copper overload is killing cells that are distant neighbors and tissue that is not in the liver.

The first cell that died had no impact on the sheep's brain but it triggered an avalanche of dying cells that eventually results in the brain dying...often in a stunningly short time.

Back to Egypt

If Egypt (population 120 million) tumbles into hyper-inflation (for food prices), there will be mass, outbound migration. They will not go south into Africa. They will not go west. Some might go to Syria (population 26M and getting bombed by Israel), Iraq (48M) and Turkey (87M) since they are culturally similar...but those countries are akin to the liver cells that are already red-lined with copper. They have the same issues. They cannot take any more. 

That leaves Europe and the US. Sentiment in Europe is starting to swing to the right, but at the current time the EU will welcome them with open arms even if the first wave is a million.

Perhaps the fabric of Europe will hold. But it is likely that the wave of Egyptians will trigger waves of Syrians, Iraqi and Turks + chain migration of additional waves of Egyptians.

It easy to scoff at Europe's economy as too dependent  on "culture, tourism and status apparel", but Europe produces many things that are vital to the US economy, chemicals, drugs, pigments and dyes, catalysts, machine tools, hybrid seeds, niche farm equipment (like aquaculture) and so on.

For example, in 2012 there was a fire in a German chemical plant that was the only supplier in the world of an exotic polyamide*  (plastic) that was used by every US auto manufacturer for fuel system components. Switching to another polymer would force EPA emissions recertification of every vehicle line. Buyers were scavenging the world, calling warehouses looking for stray pallet loads of that polyamide so they could keep the auto plants running.

So one product of one chemical plant going off-line had the potential for shutting down the entire US auto industry.

The previous essay fingers Egypt as a good candidate for the place where the cascading failure will start. 

Economics

Mathematically, it is defensible if you can borrow money at an interest rate that is lower than the rate at which prices are going up. Scarcity drives up prices.

*My memory isn't what it used to be but I think it was marketed as "Nylon 18". 

Eclectic Grab-bag

Surveying my gardens this morning I saw a little flash of orange. It was the same orange as the cheapest basketballs you could buy when I was a kid. Not at all like a snail.

Colorado Potato Beetle larva!!!

Not on every plant, but enough to know that it was time to address the issue.

Colorado Potato Beetles tend to lay eggs on adjacent plants. When the distance between rows is large in comparison to the distance between plants within a row, it is common to have streaks of between three and ten plants in the row populated with larva and then gaps where the plants are "clean".

If a fellow were trying to conserve his supply of insecticides, it is possible to walk the rows and when larva are spotted to spray the infected plant and then to spray two (or three) plants to either side of it in the row on the assumption that the mother laid eggs on those plants as well.

It comes down to "What is the bottleneck resource?". If it is labor, then it is much faster to spray the entire potato patch. If the limiting factor is availability of effective pesticides, then using some intelligence can really stretch that supply.

Boring details 

Same water-prep as before. This time I used 3 ounces of 13.3% Permethrin per gallon of water. The plants are bigger now than they were on June 8. I went through two gallons of spray over 650' of row.

Permethrin is non-polar and is absorbed by the waxy cells in the leaf's outer layer. Pemethrin has a very low vapor-pressure and is persists in the leaf for a long time. It is not very mobile in the plant since it is not water soluble. 

Southern Belle reports that there are no larva visible on her potatoes...yet.

One nice thing about CPB larvae is that they like to eat the tops of the plants. That makes them easy to see and pretty much ensures that the parts of the plants that are most at risk get good coverage.

I assume the tops taste better than lower leaves. Maybe they are sweeter. Or maybe it is because the lower leaves are older and might retain toxicity from the earlier spraying.

Another consideration (for organic control) is that these larva might be beyond the easy reach of ducks. I estimate that the plants are currently  18"-to-24" high and that would be quite a stretch for the ducks. I could train them to follow me and I could shake the plants. CPB larva drop out of the canopy when stressed in that way. That would put them within easy feeding-range of ducks.

Chipmunks

Something is appreciating my trapping efforts, and it is not the chipmunks.

This is what I found this morning. It is the front 1/4 of a chipmunk. The rest of the animal was a midnight snack for some animal. It reminds me of the stories of people fishing off-shore of Galveston, Texas. Lots of sharks out there in the Gulf of America.

Mowers

I am fiddling around with changing the motor on one of my dead push-mowers.

The diameter of the through-holes in the engine-block for mounting the engine to the deck are 8.6mm which is the minor diameter for M10-1.25 bolts. A 5/16" bolt will fit with a tiny bit of play. That is, 8.6mm is a bit larger than the major diameter of the threads. A 1/4" bolt simply swims in the hole and requires some stacking of washers to ensure that they don't fall through the hole.

It may be counter-intuitive, but a nut-and-bolt with the bolt being smaller than the hole and torqued-to-yield is usually more resistant to dynamic side-loads than a bolt threaded into a tapped hole. The long, skinny shank of the bolt is stretchy (like a bungee cord) and loss of stack-height due to fretting or material creep is absorbed and forgiven by that bolt stretch.

I will probably opt for SAE Grade 5, 1/4" bolts (less risk of hydrogen embrittlement than Grade 8) and Grade 3 nuts with Grade 8 lock-washers and washers. Cast aluminum is not very forgiving of being over-stressed by bolts.

Plumbing

I am tinker-toying together a bunch of tubing and fittings with the intention of helping a friend salvage some heating oil (virtually identical to diesel fuel, except the color) from an in-ground tank.

I have a love-hate relationship with this kind of work. It is frustrating and time-consuming. I don't consider myself particularly gifted at it but that might be because I know several people who are absolute geniuses at that kind of work.

Keep your eyes on Egypt

Egypt is a flash-point along several different axis. Food insecurity and food-inflation in Egypt are in the top five world-wide. Food inflation is currently running at about 7% per MONTH in terms of typical wages. Furthermore, from a geopolitical standpoint, Egypt is near the center of a very explosive region.

Egypt was in the vanguard of the "Arab Spring" uprisings. History rhymes. 

Much of Egypt's irrigated agricultural land grows wheat and barley to make bread, the staff-of-life. They are very dependent on synthetic nitrogen fertilizer (#3 in the world in pounds-per-acre at 400 pounds per acre per year  applied to agricultural land) to grow that grain. They were monkey-hammered by the Uke-Rus war that stopped shipment of wheat through the Black Sea. The US/Israel/Iran conflict put a cork in the Persian Gulf and blocked Nitrogen fertilizer shipments.

If/when Egypt blows up, drop whatever you are doing and drive to your favorite big-box store and max out your credit card. Rice, beans, motor oil, solar panels, pool sanitizer (chlorine), water softener salt, nails, screws, tarps, seeds, soap... Whatever strikes your fancy. I am not sure it will matter in the sense that nearly everything will become hard to get.

The sample paragraph revisited

“…I had a generally happy childhood. Then, in 2016, they (my parents) started going further and further to the right (coincidentally(?) the year Trump was elected the first time) and getting drawn into conspiracies until they finally moved to a different state completely for ‘freedom,’” shares a Reddit user, “We simply no longer have the same values or beliefs. I will not let my own children be around them unsupervised once I heard them call COVID a Chinese conspiracy.”  Source

A cynic would read between the lines and recognize that the narrator constructed a Karpman Drama Triangle with their children cast as the victims, their parents as the aggressor/oppressor and themselves as the virtuous rescuer/enabler. 

Furthermore, the cynic would ask "Cui bono?" (Who benefits?).

Is it possible that the narrator is hiding their anger and venom behind a curtain of righteous indignation? Is it possible that the narrator is angry that they were deprived of free babysitting? Is it possible that the narrator's energy is due to having their fantasy shattered when their parents valued saving themselves thousands of dollars in taxes every year more than saving the narrator hundreds of dollars in the cost of babysitting?

The crocodile tears on social media absolves them of having cost and bother of transporting their children all-the-way to a Red State in the summer. They can enroll them in the city's free youth programs and let the kids walk.

The narrative allows the parent(s) to project virtue to all of their friends rather than projecting "I am cheap". 

A few pictures from the potato patch

We picked up about a half-inch of rain overnight.

Yesterday was my big opportunity for tilling and mowing. There have not been many three-day windows without rain so it was either till on Sunday or wait an unknown amount of time before I could do it.

I still have hand-weeding to catch up on.

From the potato patch

Picture taken after tilling at about 8:30 in the morning.

One quarter of the potato patch is dedicated to vegetables that are not potatoes. Approximately 50' east/west and 20' north/south

I call this composition "A gardener and his loyal companions: Fence-post, man and Preying Mantis". Warning: ALWAYS feed your Preying Mantis before removing from cage.

Rows from left-to-right: Rutabaga, rutabaga, mangel that needs weeding, carrots with beans planted every 2' for makers, misc peppers and eggplant, beets.

The fenced garden was also tilled. Total elapsed time of 90 minutes.

Fathers' Day: No-contact families

According to Psychology Today

...No-Contact Families Are Becoming a New Norm

While many people experience a nurturing and loving childhood, others aren't so lucky.

When people grow up, they may choose to limit or cut off contact with their family for many reasons.

Neglect or abuse, unresolved conflicts, betrayals, and different values are some leading sources of tension. 

 Toxic and abusive parenting is a common cause of estranged children

A sample paragraph

“…I had a generally happy childhood. Then, in 2016, they (my parents) started going further and further to the right (coincidentally(?) the year Trump was elected the first time) and getting drawn into conspiracies until they finally moved to a different state completely for ‘freedom,’” shares a Reddit user, “We simply no longer have the same values or beliefs. I will not let my own children be around them unsupervised once I heard them call COVID a Chinese conspiracy.”  Source

My take on the no-contact phenomena is much more upbeat

A period of no-contact is a natural and healthy developmental stage that many, perhaps most adult children go through. There does not need to be a victim. There does not need to be an oppressor. It Just Happens.

All four of my kids went through (or are going through) this phase. This is not a problem. Even Jesus spent 40 days in the wilderness at the start of his ministry.

The strength of parental bonds (even if you were only a so-so parent, more-so if you were an involved parent) warps the time-and-space that the young adult child moves through. The shock of leaving college and re-entering the hurly-burly of the real world can be a real challenge.

They need space to navigate in their new life. Frankly, they need less "noise" as they sort through their "friends" and new-values and the challenges of their new, Darwinian environment. They have to reconcile what they were taught was "reality" in college with the reality they encounter after college.

Parental input jangles their thinking and they ask "Are these echoes of my parents yakking at me or are my evolving values and emotions authentically mine?" Then there is the issue of them automatically defending their choices even when they have hidden doubts about them. They need to decide if Billie or Krystell is a bad friend on their own. Your objections will only muddy the water.

Some kids have a low-drama, surgically clean break while they "find themselves". Others get trapped in a push-pull situation where they want some things (money, affirmation, watch their pet when they go on vacation) but want total separation in other things. 

Others waffle which proves confusing because of the mixed-messages the parents and other family members receive. Part of the kid wants to stay close and receive affirmation. Another part of the kid subconsciously* knows that they need to push away. The subconscious part makes them irritable, prickly and cranky and disagreeable. They want to push away but they don't want to feel like the villain.

How long does it take?

I doubt that there is any one, single answer. The estrangement described in the sample paragraph might well be for the rest of his/her parent's lives. In other cases, the estrangements might occur serially as clueless parents (and kids) rush back into legacy expectations from the child's teens.

One factor that comes into play is the ratio of parents-to-kids. When parents had six and eight kids there was not enough "mom" to go around and kids were far less likely to be smothered.

The high ratio of parents-to-kids also fosters helicopter parenting. That results in parents having too many repetitions of rescuing their kid, too many repetitions subtly telling their kid "You can't cut it".

Single parents (almost always the mom) with a single kid are especially pernicious. The mom doesn't have a husband to distract her. There is a lot of temptation for the mom to project her needs for closeness that she would normally get from her husband onto her child. "It is just you-and-me against the world, kiddo". That is a hell of a burden to place on a child and the guilt-bonds can be exceptionally sticky...and create exceptional resentment.

Summary

Periods when kids are not talking to their parents are not pathological; they are normal and healthy.

Think of your being available without pushing-for-closeness as a gift you are giving your child.

If your child is in push-pull or waffle-mode, then remind yourself that based on the evidence, contact with you is causing them pain and making them angry. Remind yourself that you don't want to cause your child pain or to make them angry. If that is too painful, then remind yourself that it is an inarticulate part of their subconscious talking in the only way it know how. 

Give them time. They will probably sort things out and things will normalize. Likely, they will emerge with a three-dimensional view of you rather than a 2-D, cardboard cutout and you will engage where your values are in alignment and you will (mostly) avoid the landmines where they do not.

Bonus meme

*"Psychology Today", subconscious...see what I did there? 

Turkeys, raccoons, Seattle's economy as a bellwether

I am hearing more turkey gobbling when I am outside than I have ever heard in my life.

I am also catching far fewer raccoons and 'possum in my traps.

Raccoon populations are known to go up-and-down. The down is often caused by distemper. Distemper is very closely related to the virus that causes measles in humans and it can spread like wildfire when the raccoon population density is high or when an event like drought limits the number of food sources and the local population is concentrated at those sources. That is, the trash-dumpster at the local restaurant  or the porch of "that nice lady who feeds wildlife" can become Grand Central Station for raccoons.

The virus attacks a succession of tissue types. The first tissue on the menu are the lymph nodes. Those are the organs that product the majority of the antibodies that suppress bacteria and viruses.

That entire "the population can go up and down" makes me think of the stock market. Yes Virginia, it can go down.

Seattle's economy

A report came out from the Downtown Seattle Association that claims the "Jumpstart" tax has had a chilling effect on the Seattle economy.

When passed in 2020, city leaders said Seattle’s record new “JumpStart” business taxes would generate progressive revenue from Seattle’s largest, highest-paying businesses to fund COVID-19 relief (an important need at the time), affordable housing, essential city services, long-term economic recovery and resiliency, while jumpstarting economic prosperity throughout the city.   

But since 2020, what we have seen in downtown Seattle is not a “jump start”, but instead, a slowdown. Since being implemented, downtown Seattle has lost around 30,000 jobs. The office vacancy rate increased to 32% in the downtown core. And more than $10 billion in office value has been lost.  

Meanwhile, in Bellevue, dating back to 2020, the city has seen more jobs come to its core, lower office vacancy, and the stability of office building values. This provides a stark tale of two cities and two tax environments just miles apart.   Link

Direct Foreign Investment for the Greater Seattle Metro Area by year. Raw numbers look impressive (Source)

 

The numbers are very scary after adjusting for inflation to 2015 dollars. According to Financial Times, Seattle went from #2 metro region for "Attractiveness for Foreign Investment" to #13.

I used 3% inflation for 2015-2019 and 10% inflation for 2020-2025. You can quibble about exact inflation numbers all day long. I gave you the numbers so you can use your own, favorite inflation numbers and create your own chart.

One of the traps that growth-enterprises can fall into is that investment that is flooding in can mask the fact that the enterprise is not viable, that it is not making a "true" profit. The same thing can happen to a regional economy. Investment flooding in stimulates high-paying construction jobs and speculative real-estate feeding frenzies.

After the hysteria has run its course, the region is "over-built" and under-tenanted. The organic, home-grown business activity cannot sustain the cost of maintaining the grandiose monuments that were erected.

Seattle is also bucking a secular trend. AI is replacing a lot of coders who used to write generic code for apps. On the favorable side for Seattle, Boeing will be getting a lot of contracts to backfill losses in Iran and inventory gifted to Ukraine.

Not just Seattle

A breakdown of Phoenix, AZ economy

We are living in a bubble-economy. Politicians of all stripes and colors have been goading the Fed to pump the economy full of liquidity since 1999.

That money has been frantically looking for parking spaces in safe-havens while the perpetual malcontents have been agitating to "get whats mine".

Thinking of one of my friends whose net-worth is in the neighborhood of $10M...what good is it to have that much money if all of the inventory of the drug-store has been stolen...either from the shelves, while in transit or at the point of manufacture?

I am not slagging him. He has properties in several different locations, including a building the small town where his wife grew up. He has many physical skills that could come in handy. What will be devastating to him will be liquidity traps if/when things go into the septic tank. Bankruptcy proceedings could take years, especially if the courts get flooded with multiple, complicated bankruptcies. Outcomes in court are politically skewed and precedent is now considered just a vague suggestion.