Skinny senior citizens, the woodpile and a conversation overheard

Skinny old people

While I was fishing around the internet I stumbled across a peer-reviewed paper that claimed that young and middle-aged people who are "underweight" have death-rates that are comparable to the population who are of "optimal weights". It also claimed that senior citizens who are underweight had higher death-rates than those populations with "optimal weight" (and possibly overweight). The paper's conclusion was that BMI targets for senior citizens should be revised. 

I am leery of that proposal. There are assumptions of about the direction of causality. There are many underlying health issues that can manifest as weight loss....oral health, acid reflux, ulcers, colitis, depression, osteoporosis caused by inactivity to name just a few. Weight is data and not necessarily a stand-alone pathology.

Woodpile

I am still reducing the 48" bolts into 16" piece and then splitting-and-stacking them. If my calcs are right then 12000 pounds of wood has the heating value of 570 gallons of heating oil. It looks like I picked good year to beef-up my backup heating plan.

TMI

I was in a situation where I had to spend time in a confined space with strangers. Unfortunately, one of them felt a need to over-share information.

She shared that her parents are idiots because "they don't know how to handle money". 

She does not like being married. Her mom and her children asked if she was going to divorce her husband but she doesn't have enough energy to pull the trigger on divorce. She is dating a guy "who is a lot of fun" but she has no intention of a long-term relationship him...but he is good enough for now. I got the impression that she was the kind of woman who rented containers of milk rather than buying them because she was not a "long term relationship kind of girl".

She "is triggered" by the people she is working with because they walk around behind her and fix her mistakes.

She moved into her dad's house and shortly thereafter banished him to a nursing home. She was fretting about how she could protect the equity of the $400k house she now thinks of as hers from Medicare claw-back*. 

I took an instinctive dislike of the guy she was talking with. He was a "hipster" and spewed psycho-babble in a pious, soothing voice and spoke with precise diction in the third person. 

 "Cultural normative scripting is how other people control you and how they prevent you from reaching your full potential" was a typical bit of pseudo-wisdom he shared with the 304. Now that I look back, everything he said was some variation of that theme. That phrase was probably his Master's Thesis.

His clothing was a cross between John Lennon and somebody cos-playing a wizard from Harry Potter.

The girl was merely stupid and self-centered. The guy was pretentious and slippery. 

"Unctuous" is the adjective that sprung to mind. 

I made an executive decision to put in earplugs, something I rarely do in public places. I was sitting with my back to the wall and I wrapped a strap of my luggage around one arm. I pretended to fall asleep.

* The typical plan for a low-IQ person scheming to "protect" the equity in their parent's house is to falsify documents that fraudulently claims that they bought it from said parent(s). They back-date the document and forge the witness signatures. The attempt typically fails when the document is not notarized and there is no documentation of payments made or taxes paid on the $400k gift.

Like trees, most of us increase in girth as we age

 

Source (UK data)

The main strength of the paper is the thorough (longitudinal) analysis of 273,843 BMI observations on 56,632 participants in studies spanning births between 1946–2001 and ages from 2–64 years. No other study has such extensive serial data covering such a wide range of ages and birth years. 

In terms of weaknesses, 

(1) it was not possible to model separate trajectories for overweight and obesity; 

(2) the trajectories were smoothed over age periods in which no sweep took place and thus did not capture local traits, such as a peak during puberty, for some studies; 

(3) we assume our findings are due to changes in adiposity more so than fat-free mass, but this might not always be the case [51,52]; and 

(4) by excluding non-white participants, we were not able to consider the extent to which secular trends in obesity might be driven by the changing ethnic composition of the UK...

The measurement protocols for weight and height were not consistent within and between-studies, which could have introduced bias if, for example, self-reported measurements were systemically under or over-reported. The tendency of people with greater BMIs to under-report weight suggests that our results are conservative

For a man of average stature, he becomes "overweight" at 169 pounds. For the average woman, she becomes "overweight" after she passes 143 pounds.

Those same individuals have to gain 34 and 29 pounds respectively to graduate from "overweight" to "obese".

In the 1946 (immediately after 10 years of economic depression and 6 years of World War, 1958 and 1970 Body Mass Indexes were virtually identical for 10 year-old children.

From age 10 and after, the boys/men gain weight decade-by-decade for the duration of the study.

In the 1946 study, women's BMI remains virtually unchanged until 1960 when those women are approximately 30 years old and then their weight slowly climbs.

The 1958 study shows women's BMI starting to creep upward starting at an age that is eight years sooner than the 1946 cohort.

The 1970 study shows women's weights starting their upward creep even sooner.

The 1991 and 2001 data show both boys and girls with approximately 10% more individuals in the overweight or obese categories. That is 2X the "floor" from the earlier studies.

The tabular data for the 1970 cohort shows 7% of 10 year-old boys, 18% of 20 year-old men, 52% of 30 year-old men and 67% of the 40 year-old men being overweight or obese. It also shows 12% of the 10 year-old girls, 16% of the 20 year-olds, 34% of the 30 year-olds and 49% of the 40 year-old women being overweight or obese.

One more reason to flee Deep Blue Cities

 

A crab-bucket move.

"If we cannot rise to your level, we will put you out of business and force you down to ours."

Noted in passing

The wife of one of my former coworkers passed away earlier this month and I will be going to the "visitation" this afternoon.

While I wasn't exceptionally close to this particular coworker, the trajectories of our lives were parallel. His wife worked in the same field as Mrs ERJ. Our marriages were within a few months of each other and Mrs ERJ and my coworker's wife were born in the same year. They lived in a small, very inexpensive house in a dumpy, working-class neighborhood on the south side of Lansing for the first few years they were married. We lived in a dumpy, working-class neighborhood on Lansing's east side during those same years. When we moved out of Lansing, they relocated north of town and we relocated south of town.

I purchased that house in 1984 for a half-year's salary and sold it in 1991 for the same price. It was not an investment. It was a place to live. 

Fertilizer

Cruising the internet, I see TSC does not offer urea or ammonium sulfate on-line.

Family Farm and Home (a local chain) still has it but does not ship. A 50 pound bag of urea (46-0-0) costs $40.

Blue Ash

If you live in the green area you might have a Blue Ash on your property.

A high percentage of Blue Ash trees are resistant to the Emerald Ash Borer and Blue Ash seeds are selling for $20 an ounce, retail. (A tip of the hat to Lucas Machias)

Blue Ash twigs are very distinctive because the young twigs have four, corky ridges ruling along their length giving the twig a faintly "square" shape in cross-section.
 

I anticipate light-blogging until Saturday

I have places to be and things to do.

"Give it a drink, Danny"

I vaguely remember a writer sharing that his father had a unique way of telling him to step back and get some perspective.

"Give it a drink, Danny"

Even though the writer grew up in a city, I assume the saying had its origins in plough-men and their horses. When your team is flagging, 'tis not the time to bring out the whip but it is the time to find a bit of shade and a bucket of water.

So, "Danny", as a young man, had a habit of becoming consumed with whatever event was immediately in front of him. He hyper-focused and became difficult to live with.

Sometimes, wisdom resembles simply being too tired and having run out of other options. Danny's dad would trudge up the stairs to Danny's room and stand in the doorway leaning against the frame. The advise wasn't loud. It was weary. The voice of a man who worked too many hours a week at a job that was arduous and boring.

"Give it a drink, Danny."

Then his father would turn and trudge back down the stairs to (perhaps) drink his nightly allotment of Old Milwaukee or Carling long-necks. 

"Give it a drink, Danny" might be timely advice given the tensions and distractions of today 

Saint Patrick's Day

The Medieval Church sprinkled the year with "Feast Days" to the tune of about one every three weeks. Local custom added more. They were wedged in between the crush of planting and harvest. There were winter/early spring festivals and there were mid-summer festivals.

Saint Patrick's Day falls in the middle of Lent, perhaps as a respite for those whose abstinence/penance became too heavy to endure the entire 40 days. St Paddy's Day is a bit like the Seventh Inning Stretch in baseball.

This Lent, I gave up my liquid libation in the evening. Mrs ERJ noticed that I am much more fidgety and seem to need less sleep.

I notice that I am losing weight and may have to punch another hole in my belt!!! Not only am I forgoing the calories but that "fidgeting" means I am moving more. I do not plan to indulge tonight, but for those of you who do, please be safe!

Fine Art Tuesday

 

The Calling of Saint Matthew

Caravaggio was born in 1571 in what is now know as Milan, Italy and died in 1610, possibly from lead poisoning, syphilis, sepsis acquired during a brawl in a bar or perhaps he was assassinated.

The Inspiration of Saint Matthew (as he wrote his account of Jesus)

 

Close-up of his head showing the detail and lighting

The Martyrdom of Saint Matthew

Saint Paul's Conversion on the Road to Damascus

Weather, Blow-guns and Nukes

This has been quite the year for "weather".

We are lucky. All we are getting is wind. Other parts of the state are got hammered with ice and deep snow. The last report I saw estimated 80,000 customers in Michigan are without electricity. Other states have been hit worse.

Spring

After a very warm first half of March, the second half of March is predicted to be "normal".

March daily high-low temperatures. Values on the left are actual and values on the right are predicted.

The first week of April is predicted to be close to normal and the last 20 days to be five-to-ten degrees F below average.

Homeschooling with Grandpa

 

11mm diameter "spit-wad" low and right-of-center.

Today's lesson was improvised weapons with an emphasis on blow-guns.

 

We started with tissue-paper softened with tap-water and will progress to 2" long bits of MIG wire in foam sabots repurposed from hearing-protection. The high school band will definitely put her in the brass section due to her enhanced lung capacity.

 

Wednesday's lesson will be the extraction of phytoalkaloids and insect-derived compounds using low-pH solvents.

Exit strategy

 

A very old bit of advice is to not enter a war in Asia before you have a robust exit strategy.

 

I hope our leaders in D.C. have given that some consideration.

 

In fairness to them, even though Afghanistan was a Goat Festival, especially the withdrawal; nobody has flown any airplanes into US landmarks since September 11, 2001. So maybe that counts as some kind of victory.

 

The leftists are claiming that Iran will eventually get nukes, so what is the point of our military action? Frankly, I would consider delaying their getting that capability by fifty years to be much more desirable than them having enough material to cobble together a Fat Boy in November of 2026.