Sunday, August 9, 2020

What would you do differently if you thought hyperinflation was knocking on the door?

Have you ever noticed that some authors fall in love with a word and it pops up in several of their books? When the author is good enough, we gladly overlook this tiny quirk.

Weldon Hill loved the word "Insouciance". Carl Hiaasen loves the word "Exsanguinate".

 

The supply chain 

The supply chain is exsanguinating.

The shelves at some of the local big-boxes are getting a little thin.


Weimar Republic

One of the best documented cases of hyperinflation occurred in Germany's Weimar Republic in the early 1920s. The economic hardships very directly led to Hitler coming into power ten years later.

Suppose you believed there was a greater than 5% chance the United States could tip into the hyperinflation whirlpool. What would you be purchasing now?

Sturdy clothing? Footwear? 

How about saddle soap and neatsfoot oil? How about tubes of grease?

Most of us have tons of "stuff". Most of us are lacking in the consumables it takes to maintain that "stuff" for-the-duration.

Side note

I was able to have a frank discussion with Belladonna about hyperinflation and about what assets and professions did relatively well during the Weimar Republic spin-down. Nobody escaped unscathed but some assets totally puked while others held up fairly well.

For example, in most places I don't expect the speed-boats and bass-boats with the 90 hp outboards to retain value should hyperinflation bite. They require too many inputs and have too little output. A 14' jon-boat with a 9.9hp two-stroke...might be fine.

199", flat-screen TVs? Not so much. Little, handheld, stand-alone video games...maybe OK.

I think she was old enough to hear me.

10 comments:

  1. A library that can teach you and your group how to do things that were routine 100 plus years ago an the tools to do it with. And maybe you will learn quick enough to stay alive. --ken

    ReplyDelete
  2. I would have started buying gold back when it was 300 bucks an ounce.

    ReplyDelete
  3. To be strictly on topic- I don't know. I buy the things that I think I will need. My model is a war that lasts 5 years where things are rationed or scarce like in World War II. Last week, I bought 75 sewing needles, thimbles, and gadgets to thread the needles. I already had thread. Today, I bought a good pair of shoes. I will think of something else next week too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great minds think alike. Great choices, in my opinion.

      Do you train and run sled dogs?

      Delete
    2. No, I just picked that name at random. Say Joe, you can contact me at d.......er54@yahoo.com if you need an editor. I am retired and would be glad to volunteer. Just a thought...

      Delete
  4. It was so bad in Germany, that I heard one woman bought bedpans because that was all they had. There's probably a joke in there.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I agree with you Joe, about buying tangible objects. I have been slowly doing that myself. Good shoes a couple weeks ago, freeze dried food, have solar panels ordered. Trying to get my truck up in shape and will order a new computer just to have for that. Goods in hand are better than cash in envelopes.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Buy stuff that is useful and keeps well. Extra gallon of WD40. Extra oil filters. Extra bottle of sulfur supplement (keeps mosquitoes, ticks and chiggers interested in others). Harvest money coming in from every surge in sales that coincides with government money distribution and pay down debt. Those are the cheaper dollars that your econ professor talked about.

    ReplyDelete
  7. "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson is a good study of the Weimar Inflation and how people did or did not make it through.

    That said, I think we are a way from hyperinflation. It will come, just not real soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't bet on it. The Mrs. was wondering what extra "stuff" we could buy right now. The idea will spread.

      Delete