A classic post (2006) from Xavier Thoughts

Xavier was a traveling nurse who provided hospice care to cancer patients in inner cities. He carried potent narcotics and was exposed to criminals who wanted to steal what they knew he was carrying.

That forced him to be a keen observer of human nature and to learn to deal with the criminals.

Unfortunately, I cannot direct you to a link that shows just that post. Rather, it is embedded within a month of posts so you have to dig to get to it. Xavier, please forgive me if I violate "fair use".

Xavier Thoughts, March 2006, Recognizing Threats, Selection

The criminal, once he has observed a potential victim, will send out some test runs to determine if the person is indeed prey, or predator. These tests may be asking for a match, the time, or change. The initial tests all have one thing in common. They violate boundaries, and determine if the selected person will allow their space and generosity to be violated.

This is the one, best time to opt-out of the victim-selection process. Sometimes a Big noise and a Big show are appropriate. Predators do not want attention. A very loud "Fnck OFF!" and a vigorous shove are called for. It sends the message "I will not go passively to the fate you choose for me. YOU will get hurt."

One great thing about being intelligent is that we can learn from idiots. We can even learn from Whoopie Goldberg. The over-the-top reactions that are inappropriate in civilized settings where people attend to nuance can be very appropriate on the city streets where subtlety and nuance are washed away but the bustle and noise.

The predator is mimicking a common panhandler to get in close, test the waters and position himself for attack. All of these persons are easily recognized by their inappropriate behavior and boundary violations. Like the fish who fails to recognize the moray eel on the reef, the person who fumbles for change with a predator has sealed their fate. The ruses are many and varied. I have seen crackheads target tourists and ask to get their pictures taken. I have seen balloon ladies that had accomplices working in the shadows. I have seen young women toss out lewd comments as their male accomplices tried to blend into the landscape. I have seen kids sitting on trash cans in housing projects while older gang members waited around the corner. I have even seen one teen lay on the side of the road in the projects waiting for a good Samaritan as his accomplices hid behind a dumpster. Like the anglerfish, these predators actively dangle lures to allow them to catch prey. To be seen as a potentially superior predator, one must simply recognize the threat, refuse to engage, and continue without alarm.

Does this process sound anything like Seattle's CHAZ experiment and Mayor Jenny Durkin's non-response? Durkin failed the victim selection tests.

If the predator is engaged, a request for change quickly becomes a demand for a dollar, then a twenty, then a blow to the head as soon as the victim refuses. This kind of escalation is common with young gangs who quickly befuddle their prey with unrelated questions and demands from all directions. As the victim struggles with the insistent demands and questions, the gang will begin positioning itself for attack. These criminals work like sharks, first brushing their victim, then bumping it, and finally going after the victim is a swirl of blood and gore as others also jump in.

Somebody is in the background running the theater. It is not the guy unlocking the gate into the gated community. It is not the young men at the front of the mob throwing rocks. The hand-in-the-puppet is in the middle of, or near the back of the mob. He is directing probes and watching responses.

It would be instructive to watch drone footage to see if the HITP can be identified the way Mazer Rackham identified the mother-ship in Ender's Game.

The most feared predator is the one who uses the silent selection process. This criminal watches the parade of people passing by, while trying to blend into the scenery. He wants to be neither seen or remembered. Once he recognizes and selects a victim, he knows he needs the right time and place to launch his attack. He may follow his selected victim to a more promising location. If he follows his victim, he knows that he must go unrecognized as a predator. He is the tiger in the jungle, relying on stealth to get close enough to quickly subdue his prey. Like the tiger, he leaves his lair to hunt. He may stalk his victim for long periods of time. He may lose interest in a selected victim that never knew he was there. He may follow the victim until the victim enters an area where an attack can be successful. If the time and place are already in his favor when the victim is selected, however, the victim will be like the fly who fails to recognize the chameleon among the leaves. Thankfully, these predators who use the silent selection process are not as common as other predators. They are, however, highly effective, giving the victim very little warning. The key to recognizing them is the last chance of conflict avoidance.