Before The Plague, workers had been chained-to-the-oars. Serfs were tied to the land. Tradesmen had limited mobility.
After The Plague wiped out between 30%-to-50% of the population, there was a tremendous labor shortage. Land was left untilled. Regions were without blacksmiths, bronze casters, tanners and the like.
A worker, if unsatisfied with his station in life could leave his district and try his luck somewhere else...and he probably did fairly well!
Covid-19 over-reaction
We might be seeing something similar with the over-reaction to Covid-19.
Workers are in short supply.
Long-standing institutions are toppling. For instance, how long can "gate-keeper" requirements that are hold-overs from the guild system keep standing when there are not enough tradesmen to keep the wheels on the bus and to keep the sewage plant running?
Knowledge workers are working from home. Management is figuring out how to measure productivity from a distance.
The Compulsory Education racket demonstrated the marginal benefits for most students over age 12.
AI is looming over the horizon. Frankly, government may be impacted more than virtually any other sector. Government does not manufacture anything and transports very little of any physical item.
The actors who pushed the hyper-reaction to Covid probably WANTED changes to society but I doubt they considered secondary and tertiary effects.
What I wanna know is how all those workers who have left the labor force are paying their bills?
ReplyDeleteWho is feeding them, paying their rent, and buying their clothes.....and their beer and $8 coffees....and their tech?
I've heard two theories: They're dead... and They're disabled. I'd prefer to think they've gone "Galt", but I don't. Hope I'm wrong.
DeleteUnemployment, disability, mooching off family, not paying rent, food banks, SNAP EBT cards, ER medical care, second-Tuesday free clothes at the Good-Will, ghosting car payments....
DeleteA number of them had enough time in or enough saved that they could quit the big job and make do with part-time employment. Quite a few of those are working under the table.
DeleteI'm hoping that a lot of folks are realizing that working more hours to pay for the bigger house, the fancier car, the crew who mows the lawn is a sucker's game.
A more accurate employment statistic would be the percent of the population of employable age actually working. As I understand it the percent unemployed is based entirely on those who are applying for unemployment insurance. It doesn’t include those who are living with parents or who are living on student loans which they hope to be forgiven or the homeless who may not exist in any ones databases. I’m not sure where mothers who are staying home to care for small children and keep house should be counted. I know that a lot of service jobs are on offer in Glennallen Alaska are not paying enough the make a forty mile one way commute workable!
ReplyDeleteThere are several federal unemployment U numbers (monthly statistics). The number we usually hear is based on those on understand; the better measure is those Fully Employed.
DeleteLast time I looked, it had dropped from 65% to the upper fifties. I assume it has dropped further since.
The hubris of those in charge never allows them to see the unplanned effects of the policies they implement. And there is ALWAYS unplanned consequences.
ReplyDeleteAs for who is feeding, clothing, housing and supporting all the people who aren't working....easy answer. The people who ARE working....via increased taxes/inflation. It's a way to buy votes. Though with "mail in voting", ballot harvesting and Dominion Voting Systems why the left feels the need to continue buying votes is a mystery.
The people forcing changes on the country believe they change some aspects without affecting other aspects... They are clearly wrong but we don't yet know how wrong.
ReplyDeleteArguably the Black Plague was transformative in Europe, not just for the change in the power of the "employed", but in the overall society itself (Florence, for example, was reduced from a population of 120,000 to a population of 50,000).
ReplyDeleteArtificial Intelligence is a potential game changer, although still early (which means, I expect, that it will be used when it is not quite yet ready). To use a simple example, CVs and Cover letters can be generated based on job descriptions. Imagine a world where the job description, CV/Cover letter, and initial review are completely done by AI (Hint: It is already here).
Content Generation is another area rife for improvement. I am looking for one of the outcomes of the Hollywood Writers strike to be minimizing or making illegal the use of AI for the generation of television/movie scripts. I am willing to bet someone is already trying to generate some using AI, or have done so in the recent past.
This really could be as impactful as the Industrial Revolution. Knowledge workers will, I think, be disproportionately impacted.
More likely, you will have to be a "credentialled", dues-paying union-member to use the script-writing, AI software.
DeleteThis has all been war-gamed and is going exactly to plan. There are no "Oh shit, we didn't think about that's". Before it is over, only the TBTF will still be standing, still completely controlling both our governments and our lives. Other countries are on fire over this WEF plan to destroy everything white including the middle class. And a large portion of humanity in the process. We, as a nation, are pretending it's not happening. Not sure that's much of a plan.
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