The "Great Replacement" is not a nefarious, externally directed effort to replace "traditional" Americans.
In the words of Pogo, "We looked in the mirror and the enemy was us"
The women with the very lowest birthrate in America are women who started college but did not graduate with a degree. The number of (births in a lifetime)/2 (gotta replace those sperm donors, too) is 0.52
Quite basically, the population would halve every generation if we only had this cohort.
And this is not a small cohort. It is about 22% of the female population between ages 18-and-45.
This cohort is the anomaly in the data. It is lower than both lower and higher educational attainment. The most rational explanation is that this cohort took on a great deal of debt but did not get the credentials needed to command higher wages to pay-down that debt. Consequently, they delay having children.
The next lowest birthrate belongs to women who attained their four-year degree (and graduate degrees). Their BiaL/2 is 0.86 or a halving of population every 4 generations. Incidentally, peak fertility for this cohort is in the 30-to-34 years of age time span.
This cohort makes up approximately 20% of the female population in the 18-to-45 year age group.
The largest single cohort at 35% are the women who graduated from high school and have NO college. Their BiaL/2 is a robust 1.14 or a population doubling every five-and-a-half generations.
The cohort of women who entered high school but did not graduate represents 16% of the population of women between ages 18-to-45 and their fertility rates are almost identical to those of high school graduates (but no college).
The final cohort are women with less than 9 years of education and they represent 6.3% of the population of women between the ages of 18-and-45. They have a BiaL/2 of 1.73 which translates to a doubling every 1.3 generations.
Who is the villain?
Every person who does not confront "marginal" students with the consequences of entering college but not graduating is responsible for "The Great Replacement"
Nobody wants to make a girl cry.
Nobody wants to be accused of being a "dream killer".
Very few people are telling kids the hard facts-of-life.
It is only getting worse. It used to be you had ACT or SAT scores and could (hopefully) direct aspiring students to a Community College. Sadly, standardized test scores are now considered "racist" and are being phased out.
The other way we are complicit is with our tacit acceptance of out-of-wedlock births. The data shows that MARRIED women have a BiaL rate that is 80% higher than that of unmarried women. I assume it is due to the financial security of having a man who committed to staying with you in good times and bad, richer and poorer...
The rolling-over-and-accepting that times are different and marriage is optional has a negative impact on the fertility of "traditional" Americans.
Sorry Mr. Tucker Carlson. You are a GREAT reporter and commentator but you are wrong about this. This is where we end up when EVERYBODY wants to "feelz good" and candy-coats hard truths.