Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Just how astronomical are the odds?

Just how astronomical are the odds of 139,000 votes that are ALL for Biden and not a single one for Trump?

Assuming that the population of voters submitting the ballots are split 50:50 Biden:Trump then the odds are about one-in-one-followed-by-four-thousand-zeros. Those are the same odds as flipping a "fair coin" 139,000 and getting the same side each time.

That number defies human comprehension and cannot be processed by normal humans. Judges are humans and trying to impress them with the number of zeros will bounce off of them.

A proposal

Make it concrete by handing each justice a "fair coin" with one side painted blue and the other side painted red. Then, tell the nine justices that all Republican challenges will be dropped if any of the nine justices flips forty "blue" sides in a row. Take as long as you want.

What are the odds of that happening?

The odds of flipping forty-blue-in-a-row is about one in a trillion.* At one flip a second, nine justices would make a trillion flips in 3500 years if they did not sleep, take off weekends or stop to eat or go to the can.

Forty-in-a-row is a HUGE amount less than 139,000-in-a-row.

*Ten-in-a-row is 1:1024. Twenty-in-a-row is 1:1,048,576. Thirty-in-a-row is 1:1,073,741,824


  1. Anybody with the IQ of warm toast knows that it is simply IMPOSSIBLE for a car to pull up, boxes of ballots be hauled out and for ALL OF THEM.....EVERY SUNGLE ONE of them to be for Biden. This is fraud, blatant, open obvious fraud. The left isn't even TRYING to pretend this is an honest election. They don't care. Thy have gotten away with so much crime, so many abuses, so much cheating with ZERO consequences they simply do not care if we know they are cheating. And history has proven NOTHING will happen to them. They will get away with this crime, they will win this election and they will DESTROY AMERICA.

    1. They don't care because they want you to know that they have the power and there isn't a damn thing you can do about it.

  2. To quote the immortal Daffy Duck- "You realize, of course, that this means WAR".

    1. Oops ! I misquoted. "You realize, of course, that this means WAR". is a quote from Oscar-winner Bugs Bunny.
      Mea culpa.


  4. Joe, to the best of my knowledge, that 139k block of votes for Sleepy Joe turned out to be a fat finger typo. They didn't happen. What did happen, as attested to by none other than Nate Silver at 538,
    was the delivery of 23,277 votes in Philly, all for Biden. I'd love to have you run the numbers on that.

    1. First, I must report an error in my calculations. The odds for 139,000 should have been one-in-one-followed-by-41,000 zeros.

      The odds for 23,277 Biden-in-a-row is about one-in-one-followed-by approximately-7000-zeros.



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