I start from the premise that the news has a vested interest in spinning the story to match some narrative. All editorializing is polluted.
What has been reported, quite breathlessly, is that the Ukrainians retook about six villages in the last three days. The one that received the most inches of reporting was P'yatykhatky in Zaporizhia Oblast.
There are at least three different locations that simply putting Pyatykhatky into a search engine will take you to. One of the Pyatykhatky is a town of strategic importance with a rail-switching yard. That is not the Pyatykhatky that the Ukrainians retook. This one is.
The Ukrainians retook a town of about 90 households and 300 inhabitants. No railroad. No major highway. No bridges or dams. It appears to me, a non-military guy, to have the strategic importance of Onondaga, Michigan (one church, two bars and a gas station).
Editorializing
If this is the kind of luke-warm spit that the press is spinning into "important victories" then the Ukrainians ran out of gas. They might have hardware but they are running on empty with regard to human assets.
Picture two, fat, old drunks in the 115th round of a bar-room brawl. Both so fatigued that they can barely raise a hand to strike the other. Panting and sweating and cussing.
That seems to be an accurate analogy for the forces fighting in Ukraine.
The conventional wisdom is that to take ground the invading force must pack logistics close to the point-of-departure. They must be able to muster a three-to-one numerical advantage over the defenders. The defenders should be "softened" with artillery and then the invaders must flood the area before the defenders can reconstitute their defenses.
The reason for packing the forward position with material is so it can expand like a jack-in-the-box into the newly occupied territory.
That sequence might change with technology but the three-to-one ratio probably does not. What technology can do is to provide a temptation to expand the conflict by attacking out-of-theater targets that have little to do with the campaign at-hand. In other words, to escalate the scope of the conflict which is entirely different than winning a conflict.
I would love to get "schooled" by those who know more about these things.
The Russians are in a defense in depth, the Ukrainians have spent the past couple of weeks dying against the screening line. They have made no real progress and have lost a good portion of all the cool stuff NATO has sent them along with a good portion of their lates Army, # 3 I believe. US/NATO are pretty much out of everything now so the Ukraine will not be getting a lot more to use.
ReplyDeleteThe Russians are not punch drunk and exhausted.
ReplyDeleteWe are here Because you are not the mainstream. Don't spout mainstream off to us.
Otherwise live you, here twice a day. Ps; I miss the well written stories
I don't mean to be argumentative, but if they are not depleted, then why are they prolonging the war? What advantage does it offer them?
DeleteThe longer the war drags on the more NATO bleeds materiel that cannot be replaced with current factory capacity. Russia is prolonging the current war in the Ukraine to shorten the eventual war with NATO.
DeleteThey are not “prolonging” the war, Joe. They are waging it according to classic Russian doctrine. Encircle the enemy and relentlessly grind him down with stand-off weaponry like artillery. Don’t trade lives for useless territory; don’t outrun your supply lines, etc etc etc. Wars like that take years to resolve.
DeleteAmericans are used to Shock and Awe warfare. It works against Second and Third World opponents… but it won’t work against a modern entrenched peer adversary. This is largely why the Kraine is the debacle that it is. The US thinks the Russians are all drunks and thugs with crappy equipment, and the Ukes would just walk all over them.
My fear right now is that as the situation deteriorates, the Americans will get drawn into the Kraine…and the Russians will do to them what they did to the Ukrainians.
"Out Of Theater" may well affect the logistics/supply of the opponent.
ReplyDeleteYes, attacks will degrade logistics/supply but usually results in more civilian vehicles being pressed into duty transporting goods longer distances.
DeleteThe pressure-point is resolve and public-opinion. I am not sure that will get much traction with Putin.
Interesting analysis:https://open.substack.com/pub/simplicius76/p/sitrep-62123-russia-re-orients-to?r=x1di7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
ReplyDeleteSeems pretty informed locally. Updates frequently.
I believe nothing being reported about this conflict. Both sides...and everyone involved...have plenty of reasons to lie about what's happening. I do know that if Russia had half the military prowess they have always claimed this mess would have been over in a month. Russia is a paper mache bear. All talk and no ability.
ReplyDeleteIt appears to this observer that Russia has chewed up and shit out three iterations of the Ukrainian Army within 18 months. Russia has no incentive to end the SMO as long as NATO continues pouring resources down a rat hole.
DeletePeople with an agenda are so blinded by ideology it is impossible for them to see reality.
DeleteBut according to General Aesop, this is the key to final victory
ReplyDeleteAesop is actually one of the guys who has significant military experience.
DeleteHe might offer useful insight. He might say the Zelensky is stepping on his Richard by prosecuting a political counter-offensive where he is trying to take back every square-inch rather than driving to strategic and economic objectives like the oil-fields and refineries of Dornbas. That is just a guess about what he might write if he chose to read my blog and comment.
I can value his opinions even if I don't agree with everything he writes.
Nurses (with or without combat experience) really aren't into logistics and war planning.
DeleteThis one in particular is so blinded by his own beliefs and assumed superiority, its comical. If I had gotten so much wrong with the KungFlu, I'd STFU, but thats what makes his posts so entertaining!
Shame really, his wit is rapier sharp, and he has quite a gift with language, but despite the contrary evidence all around, he clings to his beliefs to the end. Prolly still wears a mask when grocery shopping, 'because surgeons do in the OR.'
Aesop gets his info from the mainstream media. YouTube and the MSM are showing pics of clean Uke soldiers, victoriously parading and patrolling areas that may or may not be recently won battlefields. When they shoot, you never see what they’re shooting at. The “experts” in the MSM are often men like Aesop, who are often held in contempt by men that served with them, and by real experts that actually know what they’re talking about.
DeleteBy contrast, Alt-Media is filled with images of scrapped Bradley’s and Leopards, with grinning Russians posed beside the wrecks and stacked Uke corpses. The Russkies cheerfully rifle through it all looking for smokes, souvenirs, and weapons. There is little in the way of narrative-building. I’ve listened to Vlad’s speeches, translated in real time. I’ve heard the mass media flat out lie about what Putin actually said several times.
Aesop and the mass media don’t get that Russia is no longer communist. The Cold War Soviet drunks, thugs, and gangsters are long gone. Russia is now a legitimate country with valid security interests. They are also ruthless fighters. Their goal now is to kill Ukrainians, and destroy their equipment. They will happily cede territory to do that, and retake it later when it is to their advantage to do so. They are enjoying spectacular success. They are now fighting NATO and if the US foolishly gets involved…I’d make their odds of success to be at least 70/30 against.
So far, Alt-media and the “conspiracy nuts” have been predicting events with amazing accuracy so…my money is on them.
Douglas MacGregor IS an expert, with actual experience in command and military and political analysis. He is another source of info worth your time.
AnonymousJune 23, 2023 at 7:02 AM
DeleteBINGO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Simplicus provides an insightful pro-Russian perspective. Sarcastosaurus (also Substack) provides a pro-NATO view. Suggest reading both and figure the truth is in the margins.
ReplyDeleteWinner winner chicken dinner!
DeleteMoonofalabama is another good one, as well as that Patrick (Lancaster, Lannister?) doing the video updates on oy tube.
Qualitarian sums it up nicely above. 18 months in Russia still owns all the land it took by force, Ukies are sending women and children to the front in the 2nd iteration of free NATO shit.
#winning!
Vox has a good update from 2 other sources (links provided).
ReplyDeletehttps://voxday.net/2023/06/23/not-meeting-expectations-on-any-front/
Unfortunately, the situation in Ukraine (substitute any country Americans are clueless about) appears to be, at its root, a money laundering operation with collateral damage.
ReplyDeleteHere’s a simple word salad for current American policies , foreign and domestic :
Loot, Shoot, Scoot. In no particular order.
Not that it’s anything new:
ReplyDeleteEmpire has its own model of wealth generation
2000 years ago-
Robbers of the world, having by their universal plunder exhausted the land, they rifle the deep. If the enemy be rich, they are rapacious; if he be poor, they lust for dominion; neither the east nor the west has been able to satisfy them. Alone among men they covet with equal eagerness poverty and riches. To robbery, slaughter, plunder, they give the lying name of empire; they make a solitude and call it peace (ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant).
ERJ, re-reviewing history as I have been over the last six months or so, the parties and names remain different, but the eventual resolution will be the same as it has ever been. The fact that we can read Thucyidides 2500 years after he wrote and still see all of humanities issues and political efforts and find analogies for them in the current period suggests history is a far better guide than lots of people like to think.
ReplyDeleteRussian visiting Bradly Square. Guy gags at smell of dead bodies. The de-tracked Bradly diesel is still idling as the soldiers pick up American rifle, mags and ammo. https://www.bitchute.com/video/4xZYSMnOI9xp/
ReplyDeleteRoger that.
DeleteThat got me.....engine still humming. No (live) UAF troopers around
Russia Russia Russia!!!
ReplyDeletesounds like the Brady Bunch.
Russia has the annual GDP of Texas and corruption out the ying yang.
I believe no news from that craphole except Cui Bono "Follow the Money". I don't care about either country and the USA should not be spending 10 cents there or one single drop of US blood.
Ukraine has the annual GDP of Zambia and wrote the book on corruption (just ask Hunter & 'Big Guy').
DeleteFixed it for ya.
You're welcome!