(Playing a riff on this post over at Bayou Renaissance Man)
Risk cannot be destroyed. It can be shifted. It can be diluted or shared which gives the illusion of risk mitigation, but it can never be totally destroyed.
What is risk?
Risk is uncertainty or roughness or variation. Activities that depend on weather are "risky" because there is much uncertainty with regard to the weather.
At a micro-level, risk can be mitigated by pooling or coupling outcomes. This is the entire foundation of the Insurance industry.
Poor grain yield in Ohio can be offset by record yields in Iowa. As long as there are functioning grain-markets and enough transportation the unevenness is invisible to 99.99% of Americans.
Another example is "mutual aid" for emergency services. If an Eaton County cop is not available a Jackson County cop might respond to your call even though you are 10 miles away from the Jackson County line. A big fire in Hamlin Township might have rigs show up from four different agencies.
A third example is to tax those who are "lucky" to help out those who are experiencing a run of bad luck.
So how can I write that risk doesn't disappear...I just showed how it did
Secondary and tertiary effects make the risk a whack-a-mole enterprise.
For example, policy makers and politicians look at "mutual aid" and decide to not fund emergency aid efforts or other critical infrastructure because they expect a neighbor to do so.
Tax-payers decide to Go-Galt when they see money siphoning out of their wallets to support the SLL (Slackers, Layabouts and Lazy).
Businesses shutter their doors or move when they see DAs wink at theft (which they see as a casual tax on successful businesses) and assault. Large cities twist arms at the state capital and force WOKE laws statewide to stem the flight of tax-donkeys. That results in productive people/businesses relocating across the state line rather than just one-county outside of Seattle or Chicago or wherever.
Lurking in the weeds
If you remember back to yesterday's post, I discussed how a crack in a Liberty Ship's deck could circumnavigate around the entire hull due to the all-welded construction. Coupling systems together creates systemic risk. The odds of systemic risk are numerically lower than the risk of a failure at any given local level, but the consequences of systemic risk are orders of magnitude higher.
One example of this might be the tax subsidies for electric vehicles. Progressives are in LOVE with the idea of EVs but at this point they are failures as a stand-on-their own enterprise. They are not viable without massive resource transfers from the non-EV universe. Pushing EVs past what is technically viable while starving and legislating against the viable parts of the economy is the equivalent of basing your economy on a perpetual-motion machine to power generators...it might appear to work as long as their is a motor tucked way where it cannot be seen.
And as multiple "grids" of systems are interconnected, we face the theoretical possibility of "cascading failures". A failed bridge reroutes a part which gets lost which causes a power-plant to go off-line which causes a black-out which shuts down natural gas distribution which.....
So what can we do as individuals to armor our homes and families?
Time is the ultimate commodity. Figure out what it takes to hunker-down while the dust settles. Becoming a refugee is almost never the right answer...unless you live in an extremely affluent enclave in a sea of poverty or are downwind of a breached nuclear reactor or have a wild-fire or tsunami about to knock on your front door.
Run the mental exercise: Could you survive on your property for three weeks and not have ANYBODY leave? No take-out food. No meds. No water.
Could you do it if the grid was down? Hint: Life will become intensely physical. Lay in a supply of socks (including compression socks to provide a slip-layer between your cushy, work socks), work-gloves, hats, work-boots, bandaids and Tylenol. There will be no electronic entertainment. You might want a few books printed on paper.
If that is not possible, could you make it if you were able to visit your closest neighbors or access resources within a 1/4 mile or 1/2 mile of your property?
If you are feeling peppy, run a two-day trail. Drop all of the breakers in the breaker-box and see if you can last two days and two nights.
Who would you allow to bunk-up with you? Your children? Your in-Laws? How about unmarried significant others? How about cousins and nephews and nieces? These can be brutal questions. It is better to have an outline in your head BEFORE you see their headlights in your driveway.
Have preps. Have a plan. Make test runs. Get more physically fit.
While it was a slog for me to get through, read "Antifragile" by Nassim Taleb, and really grok it, read and internalize what he is saying. It provides you with a 1-degree shift in your paradigm. Very powerful over time.
ReplyDeleteHis concept is fantastic, employing challenging, but oh so worth it. Especially in light of this subject.... becoming antifragile makes impeccable sense. The concept has changed how I do some of my prepping.
I've done a 4 day trial. 'Tis an interesting exercise.
ReplyDeletePlus, of course, I did it in moderate weather. Not the depth of winter.
3 weeks is but a tithe of what you will need. 90-180 days is a real minimum before the dust settles... may be a year.
All your preps do is give you time.
My two day trial showed me that a steady diet of white-rice and beans locked up my bowels as if it were concrete. In retrospect it was totally foreseeable. Even without chaos around me, it was very unpleasant.
DeleteLots of OH SHIT (or in my case OH, NO SHIT issues can be found and ironed out while it is not a big deal.
Joe, it takes time for your intestinal tract to adapt to new foods.
DeleteGo on a two three day bender with lots of hot curry if you need an example.
Eat what you store, store what you eat. In my house we do a weekly bean pot and serve a side dish of beans at every meal. White Beans can be blended into spaghetti sauce to add protein and reduce the amount of meat in the sauce for that felling full sensation.
Most modern foods we eat have a LOT of cooking oils in them. Look at calories from fat for examples. That keeps the guts moving along well along with plenty of water.
WATER, WATER, Water. You never have enough safe water.
The one prep that I can't see being tested is the resolve (and skill) to deal with the 24x7 threat of the 'gimmedats'. Not that many of us around who have been in that arena (war zone)
Delete24-07 threat of Gimmie Dats comes in MANY FLAVORS.
DeleteOfficial Gimme Dats with uniforms and laws to gather supplies "for the community emergency".
From the sudden visit of a family member and his family who has NOTHING to add to the pot and is likely to run off or worse become a troublesome person when things get spicy.
Betrayal is a real problem if they can get something from betrayal.
See above official Gimme Dats for details.
Can you feed, shelter and protect them also, given they bring nothing to the table except a Attitude "we're family" you owe them and a hungry belly?
From the neighbors, see above.
From the typical fantasy of easily Identified LOUD Tactical IDIOT Gimme Dats that line up like paper targets in the range.
BTW Not going to happen, they will be a LOT sneakier and deceptive. Like the hungry ragged mommy with a baby deceptive. Go to sleep, find the locked door OPEN and visitors inside, sneaky.
You need TRUSTED FRIENDS to provide that cover my 6 stuff.
Like several families living in the SAME HOME. Not 2-7 miles away, just call us and we'll save you folks. Like THEY would Leave their homes undefended to save you? Really? To get ambushed enroute?
I wish I could find a link to Braken's "Indian Country" story.
Yes, the gimme dats scenario is quite difficult to test.
DeleteOf greater concern, the "soros/cartel" funded "technicals" from the innner cities.
I've seen something vaguely akin, where a truckload of armed men attack a rural "homestead", usually a "grow".
In one such case the perps came dressed as DEA, and handcuffed everyone, only to have one of them get loose and pursue, catching up one the road nearly 10m away, resulting in a rolling shootout. (home court advantage can be huge, even just knowing the roads)
In another case the truckload had a son handcuffed prone, when the dad fired from the house with a 22 handgun, which jammed on the first shot. The perps evidently didn't expect return fire, and immediately jumped back in the truck and bolted... never to be caught. (I don't even know if the father/son ever even reported it)
To ERJ probably why the local food bank hands out prunes with rice and beans!
DeleteI've run two 6 day trials (hurricane forced) which both went well, and also very quickly pointed out areas of improvement to be made. No surprise that the second time went better than the first. It will be interesting when the third time inevitably happens. Water, water, water! You can't have too much.
ReplyDeletedepends on where you are. Water is NEVER an issue for me. At most 200 yds away. I have the means to filter and even hand done RO if need be.
DeleteJust having a house full of fully functional kids and grands for two weeks was an education. Pantry took a hard hit, even people who love /like each other need a bit of 'space'.
ReplyDeleteOur refuge in the country is where me and mine WILL make a stand, it's gonna be interesting...
A little east of Paris
The traditional Project Management paradigm is that risk can be reduced, mitigated, transferred, or accepted. Elimination of a risk can only occasionally be accomplished, often at significant expense of time and money.
ReplyDeleteOur second Winter event went much better than our first Winter event.
To your point, a great many people will likely be trapped in urban environments should some significant interruption happen. As currently I am one of them, I would like to think that just because one is urban - or sub-urban - that they are no more a "write-off" than those who have are intensely rural.
I believe that some urban people will survive a grid down scenario, but it will be more difficult than in rural areas - and it will likely be far more brutal "us vs them".
DeleteWe’re in a small town and lose power several times a year due to weather, usually a day or two. Preps are made, and sparing use of the generator keeps the freezer and fridge cold. I’m betting those urban people will be sore distressed in the event of grid down for any time. We weathered 12 days of no power one winter, but it does take work. The big question is whether relatives and friends show up looking for help or food.
ReplyDeleteSouthern NH
We did 9 days with out power because of a wind event. Because of the generator, it was an almost a non issue. With out the gen, it would quickly turn into 1870.
DeleteIn a true grid down time, anyone hearing your gen COULD turn into a very ugly, potentially fatal situation. Keep praying and prepping.
True that. We could hear some of our neighbors running generators all day and part of the night. It would be easy to follow the sound if you were of a looting thieving mind-set.
DeleteGear is good, mental outlook is more important. I do recall reading old sailors lasted longer than younger folks in lifeboats when stranded. Some of it may have been do to previous experience or just a mental toughness.
ReplyDeleteAs for sharing food outside your biological family, it is easier to feed your neighbor than to shoot him. I have a giveaway inventory of 20 pounds of white rice (lasts almost forever) in 1 lb bags. Also 20 cans of pinto beans, bought on sale in the fall when they often go on special at 50 cents per can.
ReplyDeleteMy plan is that I will make a show of rummaging around to come up with one pound of rice and one can of beans, give it to the supplicant and tell him sternly that is all I can give and don't come back.
As for generator use, I have two inverter generators which are remarkably quiet. The 2 kw gen set will easily run all my refrigeration as well as clothes washer and vacuum cleaner. Also a medium size microwave oven. The generators run for 20 minutes or so until the task is complete and then shut down - no sound footprint and no fuel use. The freezer and fridge need to be powered up 4 or 5 runs per day in the summer. Never in the winter, of course.
When the generator is running it is also recharging batteries, phones, uninterruptible power supplies, lithium iron phosphate deep cycle batteries and anything else that can be done intermittently
This electric supply regime was tested when our part of the county blacked out for 18 hours in the winter. The biggest problem was the eerie silence because the hot tub pump was not running.
A country boy can survive! Wife wasn't happy about the hot tub, though.
Like a stray dog or cat, once you feed him, he will be back. Bet on it.
DeleteDo you ahve a plan for once the generator runs out of fuel?
I’ve heard that some gennies can be converted to run on alcohol. So the engineering types could set up a crude still to make some alcohol out of apples, potatoes, corn, what have you, to run the generator. Again, sparing use of the gennie is recommended, while you can.
ReplyDeleteSouthern NH
We went for a month without power after a hurricane, and about 2 weeks after another. With a 2000 watt generator we were comfortable. We had enough power for fans, refrigerator, freezer, tv and cable during the day. We had power enough at night for a small window unit in the bedroom, freezer, and refrigerator. With a gas dryer and stove, we could run a washer, then dry the clothes and cook. Did not run an electric coffee pot or microwave. We had headlamps for lighting. 2000 watt generator is pretty economical on gas, which can be a problem to find, but we had enough stored up until gas stations opened up. We were back before others and the neighborhood is very quiet and dark except for natural gas outside lamps which some houses had. Supposedly some generators were stolen in East Texas after a hurricane with running lawn mowers left to slow response. Also supposedly some generator thieves were shot and left, picked up by leo with very little investigation somewhat later.
ReplyDelete