(Playing a riff on this post over at Bayou Renaissance Man)
Risk cannot be destroyed. It can be shifted. It can be diluted or shared which gives the illusion of risk mitigation, but it can never be totally destroyed.
What is risk?
Risk is uncertainty or roughness or variation. Activities that depend on weather are "risky" because there is much uncertainty with regard to the weather.
At a micro-level, risk can be mitigated by pooling or coupling outcomes. This is the entire foundation of the Insurance industry.
Poor grain yield in Ohio can be offset by record yields in Iowa. As long as there are functioning grain-markets and enough transportation the unevenness is invisible to 99.99% of Americans.
Another example is "mutual aid" for emergency services. If an Eaton County cop is not available a Jackson County cop might respond to your call even though you are 10 miles away from the Jackson County line. A big fire in Hamlin Township might have rigs show up from four different agencies.
A third example is to tax those who are "lucky" to help out those who are experiencing a run of bad luck.
So how can I write that risk doesn't disappear...I just showed how it did
Secondary and tertiary effects make the risk a whack-a-mole enterprise.
For example, policy makers and politicians look at "mutual aid" and decide to not fund emergency aid efforts or other critical infrastructure because they expect a neighbor to do so.
Tax-payers decide to Go-Galt when they see money siphoning out of their wallets to support the SLL (Slackers, Layabouts and Lazy).
Businesses shutter their doors or move when they see DAs wink at theft (which they see as a casual tax on successful businesses) and assault. Large cities twist arms at the state capital and force WOKE laws statewide to stem the flight of tax-donkeys. That results in productive people/businesses relocating across the state line rather than just one-county outside of Seattle or Chicago or wherever.
Lurking in the weeds
If you remember back to yesterday's post, I discussed how a crack in a Liberty Ship's deck could circumnavigate around the entire hull due to the all-welded construction. Coupling systems together creates systemic risk. The odds of systemic risk are numerically lower than the risk of a failure at any given local level, but the consequences of systemic risk are orders of magnitude higher.
One example of this might be the tax subsidies for electric vehicles. Progressives are in LOVE with the idea of EVs but at this point they are failures as a stand-on-their own enterprise. They are not viable without massive resource transfers from the non-EV universe. Pushing EVs past what is technically viable while starving and legislating against the viable parts of the economy is the equivalent of basing your economy on a perpetual-motion machine to power generators...it might appear to work as long as their is a motor tucked way where it cannot be seen.
And as multiple "grids" of systems are interconnected, we face the theoretical possibility of "cascading failures". A failed bridge reroutes a part which gets lost which causes a power-plant to go off-line which causes a black-out which shuts down natural gas distribution which.....
So what can we do as individuals to armor our homes and families?
Time is the ultimate commodity. Figure out what it takes to hunker-down while the dust settles. Becoming a refugee is almost never the right answer...unless you live in an extremely affluent enclave in a sea of poverty or are downwind of a breached nuclear reactor or have a wild-fire or tsunami about to knock on your front door.
Run the mental exercise: Could you survive on your property for three weeks and not have ANYBODY leave? No take-out food. No meds. No water.
Could you do it if the grid was down? Hint: Life will become intensely physical. Lay in a supply of socks (including compression socks to provide a slip-layer between your cushy, work socks), work-gloves, hats, work-boots, bandaids and Tylenol. There will be no electronic entertainment. You might want a few books printed on paper.
If that is not possible, could you make it if you were able to visit your closest neighbors or access resources within a 1/4 mile or 1/2 mile of your property?
If you are feeling peppy, run a two-day trail. Drop all of the breakers in the breaker-box and see if you can last two days and two nights.
Who would you allow to bunk-up with you? Your children? Your in-Laws? How about unmarried significant others? How about cousins and nephews and nieces? These can be brutal questions. It is better to have an outline in your head BEFORE you see their headlights in your driveway.
Have preps. Have a plan. Make test runs. Get more physically fit.