|Historic price of Urea, a form of Nitrogen bounced around $225 per metric ton.|
|Price of Urea Futures for the logistical window needed to hit midwestern fields during the 2022 planting season are about $775 per metric ton.|
The fertilizer issue can be looked at two different ways: Production costs and Market responses to shortages. Urea at $775 a metric ton will add about fifty cents a bushel to the cost of production but the price is likely to go up far more than that.
One is that every metric ton of urea (46% Nitrogen) is used to produce a thousand bushels of corn. No Nitrogen means less corn. A shortage of grain creates a bidding situation which is likely to drive the price up well beyond the additional fifty-cents a bushel the $775/metric ton will add to the cost of production.
Glyphosate a.k.a Round-up
Glyphosate, a very commonly used herbicide, was whip-sawed by reduced production in China and the same supply-chain constipation that will impact Christmas presents.
The price of glyphosate, when supplies can be found and secured, are running up to four times historic averages.
Glyphosate is commonly used on corn (maize), soybeans and cotton.
If I ran the universe, I would be putting the brakes on the production of ethanol for fuel. It is stupid to make ethanol from corn at a caloric loss when we could be looking at $4 per dozen eggs ,$5 a gallon milk and $8 a pound hamburger in a year.