Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Proportional Response

The US launching twenty missiles is not a technical challenge.

It is a problem in the multi-dimensional calculus of proportional response.

Ideally, the response would not open any doors into other dimensions. What do I mean?

Consider that twenty US missiles, properly targeted, are capable of taking 26MW of Iranian electrical generation capacity off-line. That is 37% of their total capacity and would lower the per-capita electricity availability to be on-par with Botswana and Uzbekistan.

The choice of Botswana and Uzbekistan were not randomly chosen for impact, both of those countries have per-capita power consumption levels that are 63% of Iran's. That is a stone-cold fact.

Electricity is necessary to pump fuel, create light, communicate and run computers. Electricity is necessary to manufacture war-making materials and to run the oil industry, the main source of Iran's income.

Electricity availability is also prime evidence that leadership is competent and has citizen's best interests foremost in their priorities. Brown-outs and voltage fluctuations can destroy consumer electronics and Mama ain't happy when the smoke-emitting diodes in her refrigerator and TV are activated.

Replacing electrical generating equipment like turbines and boilers is not a short lead-time venture. Rupture a natural gas feed-line and the plant is back-in-business in a matter of weeks. Rattle a high-speed turbine with microscopic clearances and it might be a half a decade.  Rattle enough of them and replacement stretches out to a full decade as production capacity bottlenecks availability.

The question is not "can we" but "should we"?
Targeting their power generation and distribution system would inevitably result in their targeting ours.

Further, they would not see impairing 27MW of capacity as proportional, they would see reducing us to Botswana levels of production as proportional.

Fortunately, determining the proper proportional response is not my job.

Note to self: Look into investing in Carrier Pigeons and cabbage seeds.

1 comment:

  1. Proportional response is a bad idea.

    Infliction of pain is a great response.

    Bombing a country back to the stone age is a shitty idea.

    Removing their current military and future atomic capability is a great way to start the pain.

    The NATO / Bill Clinton idea to bomb Yugoslavia back to the stone age to remove Slobodan Milosevic was a dumb move.

    Keeping the PEOPLE of Iran as neutral or favorable towards the USA is the smart way to proceed.

    Deterring Mullahs and Ayatollahs from spreading terror is the objective. Moammar Khadaffi ceased his evil actions when FB111s dropped munitions in his courtyard. We heard ZERO from Libya until some moslem community organizer stirred shit up.

    And every act of moslem terror on US soil should be met with the leveling of a mosque in Iran.

    Poke the bear, get the teeth.


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