Executive summary
One scenario that some of us entertain about the coming hard-times is that many people will look to us as a refuge. Given the prevailing entitlement-mentality, they will expect us to take them in regardless of the cost to us and to others who we might have invited.
This essay captures some of my thoughts on the subject of being a lifeboat during the storm.
Labor capability
It is very incomplete to talk about food production under austere conditions without talking about the availability of labor and the economic system that allocates that labor.
In very round terms, 12% of the population of the US is under the age of 10. With few exceptions, this portion of the population is a labor sink. That is, labor must be found to care for them.
For the sake of argument, 6% of the population is between the ages of 10 and 15 and we will consider them to be labor-neutral.
Every fifteen-year cohort after that comprises 20% of the population up to 60-to-75 which is 15% and older-than-75 which is about 7% of the population.
To simplify things, I am going to assume that the 15-through-45 cohort (60% of population) can do the same amount of physical labor, that the 45-through-60 cohort can do 80% of the younger cohorts and the 60-through-75 cohort can perform 65% of the young-pups.
Men vs. women
Another underlying assumption is that woman can do 80% of the net calorie-burn that a man of the same age can do. The implications are profound. A single-mom showing up with two children is a net labor drain of -0.2. That same woman showing up with her man is a significant, positive labor contribution +0.8. The difference is the additional adult and it is of the more aerobic gender.
Still want to argue? A 30 year-old, male "advanced" athlete can be expected to run a 5k in the 19 minute range. A 30 year-old, female "advanced" athlete can be expected to run a 5k in the 23 minute range. Since the calorie burn of most "work" is spent moving our carcass from Location A to Location B, 5k times are reasonable proxies for our ability to perform productive work.
Some kinds of work, like cutting and hauling wood and shoveling dirt, place a premium on upper-body strength and then the scale tips even more sharply toward favoring men. I have seen women perform those tasks in the factory but they have been more vulnerable to rotator-cuff injuries and there will be little medical care to treat those kinds of injuries.
Having THAT conversation
Suzy Strident shows up at your door and demands a place on the life-boat along with her two brats.
You refuse.
She demands an explanation.
You do not owe her one.
HOWEVER: If she cannot bring net positive labor to the enterprise and she stirs-the-pot then she is toxic. You are the captain of the life-boat. Do not allow her entry. As captain, you cannot place your emotions above the welfare of the physical vessel or the physical and emotional well-being of the "crew" and passengers who are already on the manifest.
Another dimension to consider is the impact an unattached woman might have on the relationships of the married couples. In this scenario, we would be sharing quarters and there will not be a ton of privacy.
If Suzy is your daughter, tell her to make her peace with the father of your grandchildren and then she and her family will be welcome. Since 80% of divorces are initiated by women, it is likely that she gave him the heave-ho.
I understand that millions of divorces are caused by the man being a POS but many millions more involve men who are not garbage but for various reasons were not able to meet the woman's expectations. In many cases, the fact that she dumped her guy is evidence that she is a my-way-or-the-highway personality and that will not work if you are to be the captain.
Work-hardening
There will be a vast range of the capacity to perform physical work when your refugees show up.
Assuming young, two-parent family groups, 25% of the adults will be capable of zero physical work when they show up on your doorstep. You can spend a couple of hours sitting on a bench at Walmart to verify this assessment.
10% of the adults will be capable of performing six hours of productive labor over an eight-hour interval.
It is my belief that nearly all 15-through-45 year-old adults can be capable of performing six (or more) hours of physical labor in a day with proper conditioning but every adult MUST work-harden so the CAN perform at that level during periods of peak demand like haying and apple picking and processing the firewood.
That means that Mrs Cindy Softie must not get too cozy running the compound's daycare (i.e. sit in the rocking chair and rocking infants). She has to rotate through "field work" three times a week even if she can only go through the motions for half an hour at first.
It is my belief that three months of intelligent conditioning is plenty of time for nearly all healthy 15-to-45 year-olds to reach 65% of their ultimate ability in terms of being able to perform physical labor for extended periods of time.
Conclusion
I know I have some readers who are women.
What is your take on Suzy Strident showing up on the doorstep?
I know that what I wrote is exceptionally cold but Suzy is very unlikely to change her personality after she gets aboard the lifeboat. The only motivation for her to make adjustments in her expectations is BEFORE she is allowed aboard.
Nice try, Anna, but you are not allowed into the life-boat.
ReplyDeleteWe need PRODUCTIVE people, not scammers.
ERJ - You are hitting it out of the park this week.
ReplyDeleteFor those that have read Lucifer's Hammer, this was an issue that figured into the description of life in the retreat run by the Senator - not only the calculation of calories, but who got in and who got expelled for food theft.
Work hardening - I am very conscious of the fact that even with the martial arts training, workouts, and aerobic exercises that I do, I am still largely working a desk job and have a tendency to not want to do physical activity (nor, sadly, fall into that 15-45 year age bracket).
I am amazed at where your head runs to. Very eye opening thinking. When I was 14 (late 70's), I hired out to neighboring farms to bring in hay. We'd work sunup to sundown throwing baled milo stalks in winter, or alfalfa in summer. Work hardening is a term I've never thought about, but have done. It is a thing. I re-roofed this house in 2012. It took me two weeks of vacation and the balance of three months after work to finish it up. I only had six hours a day in me of that kind of grunt work then. After the injury in 2020.... I have maybe an hour a day of real work, and it has to be broken up into five minute segments. It's a hard wall. Thankfully, I don't eat very much any more.
ReplyDeleteIf you start soft, you have to watch for rhabdomyolysis. That'll weed out the population by kidney failure. I think about that, how the couch potatoes will suffer when they have to become physically active overnight to flee or work to live...
As to Susie, right on the money. I got hit with the "I have to find what makes me happy" divorce a while back. That mindset will never BE happy. And it's tendency to be divisive is a known negative. She shows with a -0.2 drain in labor, but the attitude pull even more resources into the negative column. And it's harder to eject than refuse entry. At least in my experience.
DeleteHappiness and love are daily decisions in the long term. The emotion is fleeting and not to be trusted. Not to be confused with gut feelings, especially from the trusted woman in one's life. My wife is much more attuned to that sort of thing than I, as are most good women.
DeleteFor the first twenty years, I was sure she was a good woman. I'm a firm believer in the trustworthy woman has the radar to guide the man's navigation or arms. It worked well for us. But, over the last twenty years, she became a victim. Somehow, all we built together was wrong, and suddenly (to me), she needed separate everythingk, trying to find happiness. Weird times, man.
DeleteI mentally separate unattached women into Never Married, Widowed and Divorced. Each class I treat differently with Divorced strictly avoided as much as possible.
DeleteSeven years ago I was talking to my brother in law about being productive in the dystopian future. I suggested several things he could turn a hobby into an avocation, but he said he didn't want to do that. I said that is all right, you can always make candles. He didn't want to make candles but I rubbed his big tummy and said he had misunderstood me. I ment he could be made into candles, everybody is going to work because there will be no Social Security, medicare, SSI, welfare or 401K's.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, we are all slaves to mother nature. Only our wealth has allowed parasites to believe otherwise.
DeleteThroughout Human history there have been just two choices. Cold, wet and hungry - or - hot, thirsty and hungry.
i am 70+ and depend on soc sec that is what i worry about
DeleteHahaha. Thanks, ERJ, I needed that!
ReplyDeleteHarder to eject than refuse. Remember that Woody. I seem to know lots of sues and wind bags.
ReplyDeleteVery good points. When times are tough, we all need to contribute.
ReplyDeleteIt will be a difficult transition for many, and outright impossible for some.
The past few decades of peace and prosperity are not the human norm. People fixing to get an education in reality.
ReplyDeleteTangential to this track of thought, I'm reminded that skills (and tools) can be multipliers! A highly skilled carpenter can do 2x a competent one. The person who can manufacture a hay rake is more valuable outside the field I would think? Something could start as simple as whittling a whistle on a saturday night..
ReplyDeleteI have a daughter who can out work 90% of the men in this day and age but that aside, they used to talk about “women's work” as in tasks that women can do while they tend the kids since in society it is normal for women to reproduce as well as to have “those days”. On days when the men are dropping trees or hauling wood to the wood yard for final processing they can work more efficiently if the ladies bring lunch and more water to them in the woods. The ladies can haul a bundle or cart of “squaw wood” home to feed the summer cook fire as they return to process food for storage, repair clothing and make dinner mean while keeping the kids out of trouble and teaching them simple tasks. Even a three year old can be taught to pick potato bugs. A six year old can be taught to pull weeds out of the turnips or to help feed the calves or gather eggs. Of course women who do not have children in tow can do many things the men can but they can’t be expected to have the same physical strength. The trick is to exploit their strong points such as many women have better small motor ability then many men so designate complex hand work or sitting down projects to skilled women especially on “those days”!
ReplyDeleteexcellent comment, anonymous.
Deleterecognizing individual gifts leads to natural division of labor as long as no one is barred because of sex. if a female likes splitting wood then let her go for it. if a man likes to sew and is good at it let him go for it. always allow for exceptions to the norm, where possible/
Cash making job for evey american to earn and work online. earns more than doller15k every month with this home based job.bvg i made doller18521 from this job in my spare time afte my college
ReplyDeleteOpen The Link———–>>> 𝐖𝐰𝐰.𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝟐𝟒.𝐜𝐨𝐦