Tuesday, March 10, 2020

What does 3% mortality look like

Three twenty-something ladies of my acquaintance are planning to go to Toronto.

Toronto is a beautiful city filled with amazing attractions. The last time Mrs ERJ and I went Toronto had everything one would expect in a city and almost none of the bad stuff.

That was then. This is now.

Yesterday, Toronto reported 29 deaths cases of by Covid-19.

This morning it was 35.

They plan to do all the touristy stuff; Restaurants, theater, street life, China town.

One of them has a mother who has a heart condition. One of them has a mother who is seventy. One of them has a brother who is overweight, smokes and is diabetic.

"No problem. You are over-reacting. We will be fine."

Photo credit: The sage of Northern Texas
The last time I looked, most experts were suggesting Covid-19 had a 3% mortality rate. A 3% mortality rate is the same as putting ONE BULLET in one of these revolvers, having the first girl pick one up, spin the cylinder, press the muzzle to her temple and pull the trigger.

Then the second girl picks up a revolver and repeats. Then the third.

Then they take the guns home. They discard three empty ones so they have two revolvers with one live round.

Then each mother, in turn, must pick up a gun and spin the cylinder, put the muzzle to her temple and pull the trigger.

One-chance-in-twelve is about 8%, the mortality rates associated with a precondition like heart-disease or being 70.

They aren't just making the decision to play Russian Roulette for themselves. They are making it for their entire family.

The last time I checked, one of the young women decided to stay home. The other two are sure the old people are over-reacting.

These are real issues during our epidemic. The girls are looking at social media and seeing their friends in Mexico, San Francisco, South Padre and so on. They feel entitled to a spring break because social media informs them that this is what cool, young people do.


  1. We used to live in a time when actions has consequences, good ones for right decisions and bad ones for the wrong decisions. We started learning that when we were very little with scuffed knees and black eyes. Now we are protected and coddled throughout life so the young people never learn. In our artificial society catastrophe is inevitable.

    1. I agree.

      Some of it can be laid at the feet of easy, student loan money. I washed dishes, did lawn care, shampooed carpets, hung guard-rail, etc through college. The idea of blowing thousands of dollars to get drunk on a beach in Florida or puke in an expensive, big-city hotel was insane. I knew how much sweat every dime entailed.

      With student loans, kids get in the habit of yearly blow-outs. They figure they are entitled.

      And they expect Bernie to win and absolve them of the debt incurred, partially, in partying.

  2. I am finding that the normalcy bias is STRONG with most people when it cones to taking this epidemic seriously. It is especially strong in young people.

  3. No personal responsibility... Sigh...

    1. Personal responsibilities of the twenty-somethings or the parents who allow the potentially infected daughter back into the house?

      The parents own their houses. They have the only say of who can come in the door. If the daughter LIVES with in that house, they simply have to find another place to live when they come back.

    2. In a way, you beat me to it. I was going to say that when they returned, the locks would be changed and all their stuff would be in a storage locker, first month's rent paid. Key would be in an envelope on a post sitting on the front walk, along with a note informing them of these steps. See you in 28 days, sweetie. As long as you're not infected, in which case we'll see you whenever.

  4. This really brings it home.


  5. We have a week-old grandchild (our first) a thousand miles away in Phoenix. We were going to fly out for a visit in a few weeks, but that plan has changed. We'll drive, pack our own food, stay the hell away from anyplace crowded and use lots of hand sanitizer. We'll probably be OK.

  6. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.html

    36 covid-19 cases in Ontario. No deaths. Are you Fake news? :)

    1. Good catch. Should be "cases" not "deaths.


  7. https://terriermandotcom.blogspot.com/2020/03/social-distancing-in-one-image.html


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