Sunday, March 29, 2020

This might be shorter than we thought

It is worth noting that these curves tend to lay over and become more horizontal as people change their behaviors and the virus burns into more resilient populations. For instance, look at Washington's numbers.
According to the New York Times, the number of deaths due to Covid-19 in Michigan is doubling every day.

Assuming a 3% fatality rate and assuming everybody in Michigan gets it, then a quarter-million Michigan residents will die in another two weeks.

And then we will be done. 3% of nine-million is a bit less than 300,000 fatalities.

Bella informed me that we have two positive tests in Eaton Rapids.

There are plans to "spill" Covid-19 cases to out-state hospitals as Wayne and Oakland County hospitals get pinned. I can see why they are doing it but it increases the exposure "pressure" in our area.
Oakland and Wayne Counties (1018 and 2316 cases respectively) contain 30% of Michigan's population and 70% of the Covid-19 positives.

It boggles the mind to think that we will be popping out the other side in two weeks. It is far more likely that Covid-19 is picking off the low-hanging fruit, health-wise. The people dying today were probably exposed ten to fifteen days ago.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the growth curve lays over as a result of social distancing and the freezing of the economy. It is entirely possible that closing the schools might temporarily accelerate the growth as kids who were exposed then expose grandparents or other elders pressed into kid-care duty.

Bella is planning a run to the grocery store tomorrow morning. Both Kubota and Bella have birthdays next week. It will be Kubota's 21st birthday. He is currently planning a campfire with two friends coming over. Not hermetically sealed but by no means an epic blow-out.

One of the details the Seven Cows was accurate about was Little Wedgie Stubert as a vector.  We saw this times a million with college kids and spring break. Large urban areas are noted for out-of-control Yutes. We have them too but they are spread thinner across the landscape than in legacy cities.


  1. I'm having a hard time reconciling my belief in all the opinions that we were over-blowing this (Princess Diamond, etc.) with the data from ERs showing up.
    Perhaps there weren't enough susceptible passengers on the boat as their are in metropolitan centers?

    1. A couple of factors to think about.

      Did the ship's HVAC system recirculate air or did it blow it off?

      Another factor is that senior citizens (as opposed to students who are seniors) are less apt to indiscriminately swap body fluids and are generally very respectful of body space.

      Some parts of our society are near-perfect Petri dishes for spreading communicable diseases. Pre-schools filled with snotty nosed kids, for instance.

      Other parts are nearly the opposite. Grumpy pensioners living in the piney woods of Kalkaska County and shop once-a-month.

      What makes it messy is that the two ends of the spectrum are not totally isolated from each other.

      My mom is a shut-in and averages 17 individuals caring for her over the case of a week. What can be done?

    2. Well, I refuse to panic.
      I'm not afraid of the virus, or death.
      Pain? That's another matter :)
      But I am concerned that this is unnecessarily killing our economy leading to an unhealthy onset of more socialism, statism.
      Our governess accelerates those concerns.
      May our Father protect your mother and her care-givers.

  2. I certainly hope they spill non-wuhanflu patients to the other locations. Might as well keep the wuhanners in one spot and move people who are uninfected to relatively uninfected regions. Should make quarantine easier instead of worrying about transport sanitization and then setting all the other hospitals up for such measures.

    1. Hey Bro: If you get it and are shipped to Eaton Rapids I will sneak you some BBQ.

    2. Thank you good sir. Should the situation arise, that would be appreciated.

  3. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

  4. I remember Wedgie. As I recall, the local sheriff cancelled Wedgie's ticket permanently for violating curfew in a manner that put all of the Capiche communities at great risk of cross contamination with Ebola. I also remember Wedgie's last words. Something like, "You gotta do what you gotta do, and I gotta do what I gotta do".

    Which brings me to my observation. Since I am laid off for who knows how long, I have been going to the local town lake about three evenings a week with my canoe, and paddling two or three laps around the lake. Each lap is four miles, so three laps gets me about two hours and 45 minutes of good aerobic exercise and fresh air. I see other people there, joggers and bicyclists, and occasionally another paddler or rower. And everyone respectfully keeping their distance from each other. All well and good. Solo outdoor exercise is a good way to stay healthy and beat cabin fever.

    What disturbs me is that most evenings at the lake I am still seeing groups of Utes in their 20's gathered in tbe parking lots, in close proximity with each other, hanging out, drinking and smoking weed, hootin' and hollerin', and generally carrying on like there was not a care in the world.

    They obviously are at that age where they still.think they are invincible. They don't think they can get this virus, or if they do get it that it will just be like a mild cold or flu. Because after all, everyone 'knows' it is only old people who are dying from it. And just as obviously, it has not occurred to their tender little minds that if they get it, they will probably be the ones to give it to their own parents, aunts, uncles, and grandparents. Who may then very possibly die from it.

    Wedgie Stubert, indeed.

  5. We just got our first case here in Houghton County here in the UP tonight. My email sure got busy suddenly with all the group chatter. We were hoping, but we knew.... ---ken

  6. Replies
    1. If you ask my wife and kids, I don't listen to anybody.

      On a serious note, I prefer reading because I can read faster than I can listen and I can skip ahead.

      The other thing about reading is that a poor speaker with good thoughts is not penalized as much in the written word.

      You are talking about Hans Gruber, I am guessing.

  7. I too prefer reading. If I need to I can go back and reread something for clarity. My hearing is deteriorating as well, getting old is not for wimps.


Readers who are willing to comment make this a better blog. Civil dialog is a valuable thing.