Wednesday, March 4, 2020

What are the odds of two weapons-grade Corona Virii evolving simultaneously?

Let's do some back-of-envelope calculations.

One pathogenic corona virus makes the jump from animal to humans every ten years.

Two pathogenic corona virii making the jump in the same year is a 1-in-a-hundred event.

Two pathogenic corona virii making the jump in the same three months is about 1-in-400. Let's not even attempt to compute the odds that they both centered on the same region in China.

While it is neither here-nor-there for my preps, those odds are evidence that there was a security breach at a biological weapons lab. Not proof; evidence.

The fact that there are two different strains also makes the fact that people are "recatching it" more understandable.


  1. Joe,
    As much as I enjoy a good conspiracy theory, and personally lean heavily towards an anthropogenic origin for Covid-19, I don't think that multiple strains of the virus "escaped" simultaneously. Take a look at the work done by these folks:

    I don't pretend to understand the data presented completely, but it seems to me to indicate that the appearance, through mutation, of multiple strains at this point in the outbreak is to be expected. That said, I'm concerned that an early mutation has proven to be more virulent and more deadly than the original "escapee".

    We live in interesting times. The one thing I credit the Clinton administration with is funding the sequencing of the human genome. That investment gave a mighty shove to the science of genomics and allowed us to "see" this virus, and see it change, mere months after its appearance in the wild. That is remarkable to me and gives me some hope that we can get a handle on this thing.
    As to the bioweapon hypothesis, against my natural inclination, I try to keep in mind Hanlon's Razor.There are an awful lot of "stupid geniuses" out there. If our paths ever cross (maybe in GR?) I'll tell you about a dinner conversation I had with a woman who runs a bio lab at a VERY prestigious university. It'll curl your toes.

    Stay Healthy.

    1. Thanks for the comment.

      Virus DOES mutate rapidly because it lacks an editing/checker function as it makes copies.

      I will check it out.


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