|It is worth noting that these curves tend to lay over and become more horizontal as people change their behaviors and the virus burns into more resilient populations. For instance, look at Washington's numbers.|
Assuming a 3% fatality rate and assuming everybody in Michigan gets it, then a quarter-million Michigan residents will die in another two weeks.
And then we will be done. 3% of nine-million is a bit less than 300,000 fatalities.
Bella informed me that we have two positive tests in Eaton Rapids.
There are plans to "spill" Covid-19 cases to out-state hospitals as Wayne and Oakland County hospitals get pinned. I can see why they are doing it but it increases the exposure "pressure" in our area.
|Oakland and Wayne Counties (1018 and 2316 cases respectively) contain 30% of Michigan's population and 70% of the Covid-19 positives.|
It boggles the mind to think that we will be popping out the other side in two weeks. It is far more likely that Covid-19 is picking off the low-hanging fruit, health-wise. The people dying today were probably exposed ten to fifteen days ago.
It will be interesting to see how quickly the growth curve lays over as a result of social distancing and the freezing of the economy. It is entirely possible that closing the schools might temporarily accelerate the growth as kids who were exposed then expose grandparents or other elders pressed into kid-care duty.
Bella is planning a run to the grocery store tomorrow morning. Both Kubota and Bella have birthdays next week. It will be Kubota's 21st birthday. He is currently planning a campfire with two friends coming over. Not hermetically sealed but by no means an epic blow-out.
One of the details the Seven Cows was accurate about was Little Wedgie Stubert as a vector. We saw this times a million with college kids and spring break. Large urban areas are noted for out-of-control Yutes. We have them too but they are spread thinner across the landscape than in legacy cities.