"Emboldened by Putin's success and the lack of a credible response by the west, China takes Taiwan, N Korea takes S Korea, Pakistan attacks India, Iran attacks Israel, the Mexicans, (with Communist help) will think its a good time to attack and gain Callfornia and Texas." -From a bulletin board on the 'net
China takes Taiwan
Likely to the point of approaching certainty.
North Korea takes South Korea
Unlikely. They might attack but Norks have too many weak-spots. Fuel and food shortages for example. Koreans, whether from the north or the south, are some of the toughest people on the planet. I cannot see the South Koreans simply rolling over.
Pakistan attacks India
50:50 chance. "Attack" is not the same as "Win". Pakistan cannot win unless coordinating with China to force India into a two-front war. India is too big and also has nukes.
China involving India in a two-front war also embroils China in a two-front war. I cannot see China doing that for Pakistan.
Iran attacks Israel
75% chance they will attack Israel if things escalate. Unless West steps in, it is a near certainty that Israel will invest 4 nuclear devices as an object lesson if Iran chooses to attack. Israel does human-intelligence very, very well. They know where to detonate those 4 nukes for maximum emotional impact.
Mexico attacks California and Texas
Residents of those states who were born in Mexico might attack California and Texas infrastructure but the nation of Mexico attempting to chisel California and Texas off the Continental US seems very remote.
Regarding Taiwan
The Progressive hyper-regulation of EVERYTHING is largely enabled by abundant, inexpensive integrated circuits.
Six airbags in every motor-vehicle? Absolutely and totally dependent on an army of integrated circuits to constantly monitor the accelerations and compute magnitudes, frequency content and direction.
Running engines on the raggedy edge of stoichiometrically exact regardless of the energy content of the fuel? Ditto.
Compressing images and voice into digital mode, pushing through limited bandwidth and then reassembling a thousand different conversations on the other side. Ditto.
Not to be a Luddite, but the people whose knickers would be totally twisted into a knot if we regressed to a 1985 integrated circuit environment would not be the driver who went from 6 air bags to 1, 34 mpg to 33 mpg or having to think about what he was going to say before making a phone call. It would be the Deep State orcs who want to keep their thumbs on us dirt-people.
Comments
I know I have dozens of readers who are WAY smarter about this stuff than I am. I also know that many of you are constrained from publicly expressing your opinions. If you are one of those smart guys/gals who CAN express your opinion, I want to hear your thoughts.
I don't think we're stopping at 1986. I think that any supply of chips are going to be earmarked for the DoD contractors for 'National Security' reasons.
ReplyDeleteAs well as fuel, textiles and anything else in limited supplies.
I think that salvage yards are going to be quickly stripped bare of every useable part that can be readily repurposed. Technical folks are going to keep their stuff running and functional with ingenuity.
Relay logic, homemade water filtration and heating systems etc.
I think our decline will be a stair step down. But it's gonna be the farm boys and hicks that get it done.
I don't think it will ever be a good time for Mexico to try to get back Texas by force. They might end up giving up the coast all the way down to Cancun. Just sayin'.
ReplyDeleteI disagree about CCP conquering Taiwan. The CCP wants the chip fabs and technology on the island and it takes very little to disable a fab line. Open a few clean systems to the atmosphere and the line will be shut down for a long time. Destroy a far UV light source for exposing the masks and you are down hard until it can be repaired.
ReplyDeleteSwitzerland mining the tunnels and bridges to deter invasion during WWII. I expect the Taiwanese have done the same thing to the Golden Eggs Peking desperately wants.
ERJ - Not a person in the know or smart, but of those potential situations I see none of them as particularly likely. The most likely - possibly - is China taking Taiwan, although I think the West might end up smarting at this point by not looking like they are doing much, so they would be all the more likely to act. And China would want a functioning Taiwan to corner the chip market, not destroy it.
ReplyDeleteNorth Korea? They could be opportunistic, but I suspect the Kim regime needs an all or nothing win as they could not absorb a loss.
Pakistan? I do not know enough comment.
Iran? This seems possible, if for no other region the Iranian regime may feel everyone is looking "the other way". Agree that Israel will have option.
Mexico into CA or TX? The only reason I can think of is "why"? Most likely in Texas or the parts of CA that are not coastal or Southern, they would hit some resistance - and frankly, I suspect the cartels are making far more the way things are.
ERJ - I should also probably note that what I do see as possible is other, smaller conflicts heating up as attention is somewhere else. Armenia and Azerbaijan for example.
DeleteWeakness invites action on the part of bad actors. I would be amazed if China didn't do something during Pedo Joe's infestation of the White House. As for other actors...much harder to say though
ReplyDeleteIran has always stated their intention of destroying Israel. Slow Joe being in the Oval office doesn't make Israel any easier
a target, though it DOES mean they may have a harder time getting
resupplied if they get involved big time with their neighbors.
With the level of institutionalized insanity and the lemmings heading for the cliffs I wouldn't care to predict what day it will be tomorrow --ken
ReplyDeleteI don't think I would argue with any of that Joe... except maybe for Iran/Israel. The Iranians are masters of brinkmanship, and the generally know who they can push around and get away with it and who they can't. I would like to think they'd be smarter than to attack Israel ... but you never know. They took that swipe at Trump during his term, and the guys in charge of that were all dead 24 hours later... so they do miscalculate from time to time...
ReplyDeleteIf Kim and his sister were smart, they would cut a deal with the South to guarantee their wealth and safety, and then capitulate to the South. The increase in quality of life for Norks would guarantee their becoming viewed as the saviors of their people from the long nightmare of communism. They would finally get the praise they crave, for real.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that Israel has weaned itself from dependence on US money, but continues to take it because, why not? I also suspect that the Saudis and other modern Arab countries would secretly love to see the Shiites of Iran sent back to the 6th century.
I can't reopen my old dug well and install a hand pump until the ground thaws. That's my biggest obstacle to off-grid preparedness.
I do like goimg down these rabbit holes, but I see it different.
ReplyDeleteCollapse is unlikely, for many reasons. Pockets may collapse, but just as quickly pockets will spring back. When the NE blackout hit, there were enclaves with power within days. American ingenuity. While its poaaible to enact something strategicalky (stuxnet), you're talking a serious escalatiin, which I don't think is in the cards.
Remember, Putin is a memeber of the Young World Leaders/WEF club. You think maybe he's playing his role?
China/taiwan is the intersting one. A destroyed Taiwan isn't good for China in the short term, but it also isn't good for the rest of the world, either. They're quite crafty, too, they play chess/long game. Knocking the whole world back to 1920 while they have control of the only chip fabbing on the planet isn't a bad arrangement from their viewpoint. Especially if you knew it was coming. And if you follow that train of thoughy, slow joe has been in the works for years, so the plan they're hatching is grander than even the rona. That was just one part of it. You don't think they noodled out steps 4, 5, and 6?
The Jews and Arabs won't stop until the sand glows at night. Bet on it. That war has been going on for what, 3,000 years? This is just a lull in the action.
Mexico won't touch the CONUS, can't handle their own right now. Don't see the cartels dinging the US, either (stories about kill squads smacks of propaganda, just like the russian bounties in afghanistan). Cartels want power and money, and they have all of it they could want with the current arrangement. What could they possibly gain by risking a response from USMIL?
Norks are still a hermit kingdom. They won't attack. They want food and TVs, not land and people. Now if South Korea wanted to re-unite...? But they never will.
Pak/India - who cares? No, really, barring a nuclear exchange (maybe a tit for tat), how does this affect me here in CONUS? More expensive clothes? Smaller selection at Bed Bath and Beyond? I'll watch for isotopes in the jetstream. Again, age old fight, won't really 'change' anything.
Agree with Beaucal above - smaller regional conflicts.
China/Taiwan is the biggun. China is very clear and up front, thats our island. Yes, political novices can tell now is the time, this plan was put into action decades ago, they got it figured out, 6 different ways. War gaming how is fun, but what good does it do? Assume it will happen in <= 2 years, now what? Yeah, I need a new laptop, too.
What predictions aren't you seeing? The unknown unknowns? What happens to/in the CONUS is far more poignant.... But Glen and Ken are correct, I hesitate to even hazard a guess.
Putin is 69, don't think he's in the "young world leaders" club.
DeleteThe Mexico one is the scariest because we wouldn't defend it
ReplyDeleteI was surprised how far Russia is going in Ukraine; I felt they were either sabre rattling or they'd take a chunk of the east as a buffer... I'm surprised they are interested in the whole country; Ukrainians are known for their guerrilla war and it would take a HUGE army to control the whole country.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they'll try to install a friendly government and hope it sticks?
As far as other countries, I can't make a guess right now. As mentioned above, I'm more concerned about what happens in the US. What are the Dems going to do to stay in power? Are they going to find an excuse to cancel the elections? Is Russia going to hurt our power grid? So on and so forth...
DeleteMexico has already invaded and occupied California, Arizona,New Mexico and Texas.
ReplyDeleteMexico has been attacking the Southwest for decades.
ReplyDeleteMy take is that Putin realizes his rein is ending and he wants to make mother Russia whole again so he will go down in history as one of the greats. Also I think he will do whatever it takes.
ReplyDelete