Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Black Lives Matter


Black Lives Matter is a movement that focuses on young Black men who lose their lives at the hands of police.

In 2018 three-hundred-eleven Blacks lost their lives to police.

BLM activists would have you believe that traditional, "White" culture is the biggest threat to the lives of Black men.  They could not be more wrong.

White culture
Traditional, Western (i.e. "White") culture places a high premium on getting married and staying married. The Progressive "War on Poverty" culture actively discourages marriage.

Married men have lower mortality rates. How much lower? In men between the ages of 19-and-45, married men have mortality rates that are half the rate of men who have never been married. HALF

In the age group between 44-and-66, married men have a mortality rate that is approximately 60% of men who have never been married. Source.

Suppose we have two populations of twenty-one million men. Why twenty-one million? Because there are twenty-one million Black men in America.

Suppose one population marries and the other does not. What do their mortality curves look like.

21,000,000 males modeled as 275,000 live births a year and applying default male, American mortality rates. The assumption that most men will be married SOMETIME is implicit in the BLUE line. Lines are identical to age 20. The red line reflects the increased mortality rates for "Never Married".
OK, maybe that doesn't look very impressive because it is diluted by the population of 21 million. What does the DIFFERENCE between the two populations look like when charted?

Two otherwise identical populations of American males with an initial cohort size of 275,000 at birth. The blue line is the difference between the "most married at some time" and "never married" mortality rates.


Rolling all the cohorts into an aggregate-population number shows the increased mortality of the "Never Married" results in a population that is 1.2 million lower than the "Married at some time". Note that these missing men are all of voting age, that is, over age 18. That 1.2 million men who died before their time DWARFS the +300 a year killed by police.

Does this look infected?
World's worst pickup line or legitimate question?

The data for the 19-44 age group shows that the "Never married" group has a mortality rate due to infections that is 9.1 times the "Married" group.

The "Never married" group has a mortality rate due to "Other" that is 2.7 times that of "Married"

The "Never married" group has a mortality rate due to "Pulmonary" and "Homicide, suicide, accident" that is 2.4 times that of "Married".

The "Pulmonary" cause of death being high was a bit of a surprise but then Mrs ERJ suggested that it has been her experience that most men are less likely to vacuum the carpet, dust horizontal surfaces and put away food/trash to keep cockroach/mice populations down. Cockroach dander is a major cause of asthma attacks.

Conclusion
The Western "White" family model of parents being married (to each other) is likely to reduce mortality in sub-populations where marriage is a novelty.

The potential reduction in mortality DWARFS the numbers of Black Americans killed by police every year. Every year, the ten cohorts between ages 56 and 65 average 1100 more deaths for the Never Married vs Married. That is, each cohort has three times more deaths due to Never Married then the entire population suffers at the hands of the police.

In case multiplication does not come easily to you, looking at JUST the ten-year group from 56-65, being married would save THIRTY times more lives than BLM's wildest fantasy of ZERO Black men killed by the police. And that is just one set of ten cohorts.


3 comments:

  1. Great analysis. And that's just one aspect of life . . . .

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  2. Thanks, ERJ, that is a great analysis. This type of writing is what brings me back here all the time. You look at things so much different than I do.

    One even finer piece of investigative blogging would be to show the differences among never married, once married, twice married...and the til death do us part sacrimentally married.(you know, like swans?)

    Thank you for investing the time and talent to provide all this good information. PEACE.

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  3. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/03/the-nuclear-family-was-a-mistake/605536/ 
    Wow, loads of family related stats I didn't know.

    ReplyDelete