Heller and Shannon: Risk/reward ratio

The embers of the campfire were fading. Shannon, LR, Snek and Slider were wringing every last drop from the magic of the moment.

Nobody wanted it to end.

“I don’t mean to put anybody on the spot” Shannon began “but if things are so rotten and if traditional Americans are so prepared, why aren’t we in the middle of the Second Civil War?”

As the night had worn on, Snek had been speaking less and less and Slider had started speaking more. Shannon was not surprised when Slider answered.

“The risk/reward ratio is too high” Slider said.

“What does that mean?” Shannon asked.

“Everybody you think might be a target is a deke” Slider said.

“What is a deke?” Shannon asked.

“A decoy” Snek filled in.

“Lemme tell ya a story” Slider responded.

“There is a football team in Alabama who is coached by ol’ Nick hisself” Slider said. “Every year the best high school players sell their souls to sit on his bench figuring that will get them in the pros.”

“This year, Tennessee had a good team. A DAMNED good team. Everybody in the state stopped doing whatever they were doing and watched the game.”

“Except the cops” Slider said. “They pulled patrol duty and were meaner than snakes...real ones.”

“Me, Snek and our buddies went to the local watering hole to watch the game. Everybody knew the cops were lined up on the street waiting for the game to end ‘cause they hadta know we was drinkin’.”

“Well, we won the game and after another half hour of celebrating I decided I better get home ‘cause I had to go to work early the next morning.”

“So me and Snek left the bar and we was leaning on each other to keep from fallin’ down. Danged if I didn’t drop my keys when I tried to unlock the Dodge Ram. Then I fell on my ass when I was trying to pick ‘em up.

“I looked up and I could see every cop parked along Broad Street watchin’ me.”

“Weren’t no point in putting it off. I started the Cummins diesel and let it warm up, then I started driving for home, 10 miles-per-hour under the speed limit. Them cops lined up behind me like I were the queen of the homecomin’ parade.

“I kept moseying along real careful and finally they couldn’t stand it. They flipped on their bubblegum machine and pulled me over.”

“I was as polite as my mama taught me to be.”

“They had me walking a straight line and finally after twennie minutes they had me blow into the horn. I blew a 0.0”

“Bull-sergeant Fife looked me in the eye and demanded, ‘Son, just what the hell kinda game are you pulling?”

“I gave him my best shit-eatin smile and tole him, “Well, ossifer, I am the designated-decoy, don’t ya know.”

“He spun around and the parking lot at the Moonshiner’s Twist-n-Shout was empty.”

“The reason the second Civil War hasn’t started is because everything that looks like a "target" on the other side is a designated-decoy. They are pawns that can be replaced over-night.”

“Wouldn’t be any harder to kill them than to shoot ducks at the city park with a pellet gun. But all it would do would be to get us and our friends and family arrested.”

“What would be the point of taking out all of the local Baby-Beluga news anchors, ferrinstance? They ain't the real problem. They are just one of the symptoms."

"The folks that are the real problem would just use it as an excuse to violate our rights under the Constitution and there is no shortage of fat-chicks who wanna be on TV” Slider said.

“Hell, even most of the politicians are brain-dead meat-puppets. High risk, no gain in taking out any one of them. That's why God-fearin', Constitution carryin' Americans are treading water... for now."

Shannon had never heard it posed so starkly. Looking over at LR she saw him nodding in agreement.

“So what would you do?” Shannon wanted to know.

“You gotta swim upstream and snip the spine at the base of the skull. Or at least go as far upstream as you can.” Slider said with confidence.

“I can’t see how you would do that” Shannon said.

“Lotsa ways” Slider said. “Like that mouthy old lady, whats her name...Wookie Goldbricker...on that show The Room, the one who keeps spouting off about the Holocaust. No point in tryin’ get her kicked off the show. Even if they did they would replace her with somebody just like her or worse.”

“The high leverage is to get 20,000 of your buddies and Google “Atherosclerotic Broadcasting Corporation top advertisers 2022”. Then the next day Google the same thing but add “The Room” to the search. THAT would kick the network in the wallet because the advertisers watch Google Analytics like a hawk and they would start yanking advertising.”

“Wookie Goldbricker isn’t the problem. The network that hired her and the people who finance her are the problem.”

Shannon nodded her head in understanding. "In business we call that "Leverage", where a little bit of effort gets you a lot of benefit."

“So if you had a list of high-value targets, would YOU start the Second Civil War?” Shannon asked.

“Prolly not” Slider admitted. “Nobody wins a civil war. But it would be nice to have that list for insurance. Good information is getting harder-n-harder to come by. If push comes to shove having an org-chart that identified good targets would be bettern having a million dollars in the bank.”

Many weeks later, Shannon realized that none of the people standing around that campfire had their smartphones with them. There was no point as there was no signal in the valley. She wondered if the men would have been as plainly spoken if they thought there were smartphones in attendance.