Detroit Bankruptcy

 "Negotiating with (a US Political Figure) is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, craps on the board, then struts around like it won the game." -Russian President Vladimir Putin 

Law is based on the identification and application of suitable precedent.  Reference to precedent provides stability and predictability.  Stability and predictability are the foundation of trust.  Trust is why people willingly invest their blood, sweat, tears and dollars into financial vehicles like bonds.  The alternative to investing money is to spend it now.

Case law and the U.S. Bankruptcy Code both hold that debt holders (banks and bonds) shall be given a higher priority than unpaid wages and contributions to benefit plans.

That is not how the cards are playing out in the Detroit bankruptcy.

Adolescent Economic Thinking

Kubota  is fourteen so he can be forgiven for having some unsophisticated, economic thinking.  He expressed his outrage over sales taxes.  He thought it was total BS that the governor of Michigan took his money when the governor could just print more.

I did not laugh because I have heard 60 year old ex-hippies at soccer games loudly proclaiming the same thing.

I told him a little bit about the Wiemar Republic and what happens when governments go down that road.  I told that that the bottom line is that money's primary value is as a way of keeping track of claims on real assets.  And that there is no way of getting around the fact that somebody, somewhere must actually produce those assets.

One of the attributes of adolescent thinking is the inability to formulate the next logical question. As in, "If you did that, then what else is likely to happen as a consequence."

Political Economic Thinking

The "smart money" was expecting that non-secured creditors would get about twenty cents on the dollar out of the Detroit Bankruptcy.

There was some breakfast table discussion, fear really, that the GM/Chrysler bankruptcies would be the template for the Detroit Bankruptcy.  In those bankruptcies, the employee benefits were leapfrogged ahead of the debt holders in violation of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.  Unionized employees were "made whole" while debt holders received nothing.

It now appears that those fears were well founded.

The Next Logical Question

Why would any investor seeking a safe haven for his/her assets ever buy another municipal bond?  Why would any entity with a legally defined fiduciary responsibility ever buy another municipal bond.  Or for that matter, why would they ever buy a bond in any industry with unionized labor?

OK, I engaged in a little bit of hyperbole.  You could get me to lay down on the railroad track IF you offered a sufficient monetary premium .and. there was no train within 100 miles.  But that term "sufficient monetary premium" will destroy governmental operating budgets.  They cannot afford to roll over low interest bonds as they mature by issuing new bonds...with substantially higher interest rates.  Issuing those higher interest bonds would bump up the risk of default.  In our analogy, the railroad tracks would be a-rumbling as Ol' # 99 came around the bend.

Two Endgames

One endgame is for municipalities to swear fealty to the Federal Government and to get out of the bond issuing business.  There are people who think this is a dandy idea.  After all, the Federal Government can just print some more money, right?

The other endgame is for administrators to hang on to their autonomy and to try to thread the needle.  Population bases continue to erode.  External regulations continue to be imposed.  In some cases, the low level administrators are also unionized and struggle to balance their duties to manage efficiently and their union solidarity.  They become unable to issue bonds.  Then they get dragged into bankruptcy by their own employees to pre-empt favorable treatment before contracts can be re-opened.

Reading the Tea Leaves

Sometimes the best one can manage is to fail heroically.  Like the Alamo.

Most administrators will not hand their cities over to the Feds.  They will battle heroically to keep them out of the ditch.  In many cases, they have already gone past the point of no return.

Detroit employees and pensioners will get between thirty-and-forty cents on the dollar.  Bond holders will get between zero-and-ten cents on the dollar.

Municipal bonds will lose their low risk, tax deferred luster in the investment community.  Borrowing costs will go up for every governmental unit.

A fire storm of bankruptcies will sweep across the nation, hitting California and the Rust Belt first.  Then the Northeast corridor.

The Feds will make a strong case for a FEMA type administration to fast-track the handling of these cities but they will be blind sided by rising interest rates.  Inflation will also occur because people will lose the trust needed to plow their money into investments.  Rather, they will indulge in instant gratification.  Rising interest rates will accelerate because of a general loss of trust in the dollar as a store of wealth as inflation becomes too big to kick beneath the carpet.

I don't play chess very well, but I play it better than a pigeon.

Kubota Gets Schooled in Economics

Kubota has discovered the joys of pawn shops.

Lansing, Michigan has an outstanding pawn shop named Dicker and Deal.  Kubota is learning about liquidating stranded assets, broken dreams, buyer's remorse, planned obsolescence, drive time, transaction costs, buyer-seller spread, cost-per-mile and entropy.

His latest acquisition is a set of Midland GXT-757 handheld radios.  He charged them up.  I printed off the Owner's Manual. We cannot get those suckers to work.

Yesterday, they had a Mossberg 500 with a polymer stock in good condition for $139.  We are likely to make another trip today. 

The plan is to have him do a few chores around the house to get me in a good mood.  He will ask the guys behind the counter if they can get it to work.  If not....he will either find some other rapidly depreciating gadget or, maybe, I will get his in-store cash and buy a shotgun.

The 12 gauge, 2 3/4" shotgun shell was pretty much standardized in the early 1900s.  I think they will not be rendered obsolete for the remainder of Kubota's natural lifetime.

I plan to snap a few pictures if we go today...if they let me.

Redneck Skills

Back when I was courting Mrs ERJ we were going around and meeting each others circle of friends.  Our circles of friends have virtually no overlap.  It proved to be an excellent way to get to know each other.  Seeing Mrs ERJ-to-be in many different social contexts helped me get a fix on how she saw herself within the social ecosystem.

I got to hear her describe herself many times, with slightly different variations.

I confess to getting becoming impatient at one point.  It may have set the pattern for how we resolve issues.  The following interaction is a slightly one-sided recounting of the conversation.

Both Mrs ERJ and I were younger then

"Princess, you sound like a ditzy blonde when you tell my friends why you are a vegetarian."  I said.

Mrs ERJ responded, "Why does it matter to you why I am a vegetarian?  It is my choice and those are my reasons."

I said, "You give a lot of daffy sounding ideas that may be intriguing but those are not the reasons you are a vegetarian.  You would still be a vegetarian even if the ratio of your height to the length of your colon was the same as that of a tiger rather than the same ratio as a zebra."

Mrs ERJ said, "I still don't see why it matters to you."

I thought about that for a few miles (we were driving somewhere).

I finally said, "It is a self-awareness thing.  Also, it is me trying to figure out who you are.  In listening to you, really listening, the reason you are a vegetarian is because you feel better when you eat that way.  You feel lighter, quicker on your feet and more mentally agile.  Nobody can argue with how you feel."

Self Awareness

When asked why I wallow in "red-neck" and traditional skills am am just as guilty as Mrs ERJ was in dissembling.  I give many partial answers, often modified based on who I think is in the audience.

The real reason I practice traditional "red-neck" skills is because it makes me feel good.

The first line of the Bible reads: "In the beginning, when God created the heavens and the earth."

Then, 25 lines later it reads: "Then God said: Let us make human beings in our image, after our likeness. Let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, the birds of the air, the tame animals, all the wild animals, and all the creatures that crawl on the earth"

So the first verb, the primal verb, associated with God is "create".  The first description associated with humans in the Bible are "created in the image and likeness of God".

We were created to create.

We were created to have dominion over creation.

The divinely inspired Word of God described a Red-Neck with a fishing rod in one hand and a shotgun in the other; a roll of duct tape and a sack of seeds on the floorboard of the pickup truck.

We function best when we sit in our rightful place at the table.  We are happy.  We are fulfilled.  We feel good.

We were not created to be "consumers"  We were created to make things.

That is why I do what I do.  That is why I am who I am.  I create.

Still Cutting

I have a goal to cut a little bit each day and to knock off BEFORE I get tired.  Tired chainsawing is dangerous chainsawing.

I cut until the chain was dull.  For some reason, running the tip of the bar into the snow on the other side of the trees dulls the teeth quickly.

I subscribe to J.E.B. Stuart's dictum, the way to win is to get there first, with the most.  In this case, it means releasing the desirable trees and then cleaning up the mess later.  Leaving a mess is not a total negative.

The rabbits and deer love eating apple twigs.  They polish the bigger stems as white as freshly cooked spaghetti.  They pick at the aspen and hybrid poplar twigs but will eat them after they are hungry enough.

Before.  Row of oaks to the right of the row of hybrid poplar.

After.  There is bunch of deer and bunny food on the ground now.

There is a tiny little bird's nest at the base of one of the branches.  There is also a dab of snow that looks just like an egg.  This spruce tree was in the right-bottom corner of the pictures shown above.

The irregular discoloration of the wood in this freshly cut poplar indicates it has been invaded by rot organisms.  If I am lucky, they will produce edible mushrooms like oyster mushrooms (Yum!)

Thick corky bark on Burr Oak (Q. macrocarpa) makes this species resistant to quick, hot fires.  Native Americans used to burn the tall grass prairies and create vast parks dotted with oak savannahs.  This is the oak that was populated most of those savannahs.

Shameless Plug for a Fellow Blogger

I don't do this very often.  It seems like cheating.

I know that people who wander into this blog are looking for different things.  Some will check out the blog list and visit them once or twice to see what is there.  They may catch the blogger on an off-day and never go back.  That is a shame.

Today's entry at Home on the Range was world-class and I want to share a "teaser".

Excerpt from Tools for Life  <====Link

I know people that do not know how to can, or store food long term, treat water, fix a pump, build a fire without a lighter, sew up a wound, or repair something worth repairing. They are one paycheck away from going to bed hungry but for government handouts, but have multiple cars in the garage and two large TV's. People bred with a "gimme" mindset and a grocery store on the corner, likely to be frozen inertia when things go south as they wait for someone to save them. And they call some of us "dumb redhecks". We'll be around a lot longer than those that live off of credit, someone else's cash and an attitude that the world owes them something, which is NOT a mindset which will put food on the table if the grocery store is empty and the power is out.

Fate and the vagrancy of human egos have set a warning in the sky that rises up like smoke for those of us who watch history. Those of us out here where the land is flat and the grain is dying have seen it, and we gather in our grain and we polish our protections and we look at our future with strength from within.

So I continue to learn, small skills, a little bit at a time for as time thunders past, into the dusk, there is no telling when I will need to use them, to not just make my life easier, or to restore a piece of old furniture, becoming part of its history. but simply to survive. I learned about choice and I learned about trust. I learned that it's not just finding something strong enough to embrace  your own strength, it's finding something honest enough to earn it.

It's hard work, the work we do that protect and provision and provide for ourselves and our loved ones...

Waking up Kids

The kids were tough to pry out of bed this morning. They got used to going to school one day a week.  We are running about 5 minutes behind schedule.

Fortunately I am learning how to wake up my kids.

Belladonna

Singing nearly always works.  But when it doesn't.

Belladonna has a very active imagination.  Hands scurrying over the tops of the blankets and words describing large, fuzzy spiders usually work.  In the rare cases when that does not work, a hand slowly hunting its way up beneath the covers, starting at the bare feet work well.  Rumor has it that the bite of the dread Eaton Rapids Tarantula feels like a pinch on the butt.

Kubota

Kubota can be grumpy in the morning.  So far, the best strategy has been to let the Boston Terrier out of his crate.  Let him do his business outside.  Then toss the B.T. (with his icy feet) onto Kubota's bed.

Brick and Mortar Stores

They are a little bit light on brick selection but seem to be doing good business.

Chainsaws, Mixed Gas

Today was the first decent weather in nearly a week.  Windchill was around zero F.

I took a walk around Riverbend/Burchfield park.

Then I came back home, ate some lunch and did some chainsawing.  We have lived here for about twenty years and I have been planting trees steadily.  All of the trees were small when I planted them and were hit by deer browsing.  Consequently, many of them came up multi-stemmed.

Mostly Red Maple and one or two Black Locust

Part of my long term plan is to "release" oak, chestnut, walnut and other mast trees.  I will also prune any narrow forks out of the trees I leave.  In areas where there are no mast trees I trimmed out the multi-stems and leave just one good pole.  It leaves a heck of a mess.

Chainsaws use gas

More accurately, chainsaws use mixed gas.  Mixing gas is a necessary pain.

One of my flaws as a property manager is keeping track of "stuff".  I have more "stuff" than I have places to put it.

Today was my chance to use a field-expedient oil measure.

My chainsaw uses 40:1 mix.  A US gallon is 128 ounces.  That means I need just a scootch over 3 oz of 2-stroke oil.

According to a few standard formulas (volume of a cylinder = Height X Pi/4 X Diameter ^ 2)  and there are 0.55 oz in a cubic inch.

My tape measure tells me this pill bottle is 3" tall by 1.5" dia.

Looking around I see that we have a wealth of empty pill bottles.  I found one that is 3" high by 1.5" in diameter.  That calculates out to 2.9 oz.  So one of these plus about a quarter inch more should be about right.

Sisterly Love

Belladonna sometimes gets a little bit impatient with Kubota.  He will hang onto the house phone (yes, we still have a land line) with a death grip.  You see, a friend might call him.

Eaton Rapids Public Schools has an automated calling system that informs families when school is cancelled.

Belladonna disappeared into her room.  Very shortly thereafter, the house phone rang.  Kubota picked it up on the first ring.  Then Kubota started singing and dancing with joy!  School had been called off AGAIN.

Mrs ERJ was a little bit curious.  "Did they give a reason?"

Kubota said, "Nope.  They just said school was cancelled for Wednesday, January 29."

About twenty minutes later the phone rang again.  The "Honeywell Lady" giveth and the "Honeywell Lady" taketh away.  Kubota was crestfallen.

And then Belladonna came out of her room.  She and Kubota are busy killing zombies in a video game.

How nice of her to give her sweet, little brother 20 minutes of joy.

Where All Da Wil' Women?

"Where all da Wil' (aka, Wild) Women?" Kubota asked with his best Blazing Saddles voice.

"Wrong day." the fifty year old guy in the warming house at the sledding hill responded.

"Whaddya mean?" asked Kubota.

The gentleman looked at me, Kubota and then Kubota's friend "D".  He must have liked what he saw.

He leaned forward, waggled his eyebrows and told us in a conspiratorial whisper, "February 7 will be Sorority Girl Night.  We are expecting 150 sorority girls from the local university starting at 5:00 PM."

Kubota and "D" got very excited.  They put the date on their smart phones.

Trudging up the hill dragging the inner tubes ($2 rental for 2 hours) Kubota asked,  "Hey, Dad!  What is a sorority girl?"

You just have to smile.  I think we will be sledding next Friday although I don't know how many skinny snow bunnies will show up.  Weather Underground predicts 12 degrees F for the evening of Feb 7.  The good news for sledding is that the temperature is not predicted to rise above freezing before then.

Doomer Books, Caveat Emptor

I finished Dimitry Orlov's Reinventing Collapse.

Some of his opinions resonated with me.  I think relationships with people will become more important if/when our discretionary income becomes smaller.  I think bicycles and walking will be big.  I think our concept of what a "long trip" will change such that 120 miles will seem very, very far away.

Many of his opinions seem to be rationalizations.  I remain baffled why some doomers (Orlov, Kunsler) think that a strong religious belief is detrimental to enduring hardship.  Another characteristic that makes me smile is that most writers present the case that their current zipcode is the very best harbor to weather a downturn.  Exercise due diligence and make your own decisions.  It is hard to accept that Northern Idaho, Southern Arizona, Eastern Iowa, Central Ohio, Boston Massachusetts, Atlanta Georgia, northern Florida and Upstate New York can all be the one, best place to be when the music stops.

A few of Orlov's opinions are definitely out of the mainstream and contradictory.  That seems to be one of the hazards of books that are woven from a multitude of blog posts.  Sometimes those blog entries are in response to reader's comments.  Sometimes blog entries are contributions to a round-robin discussion of a perishable topic.  Blog posts don't always play well when placed close together.

One of those ideas relates to garden size.  Orlov tells us that more than 1000 square feet of garden space is a waste. Orlov contradicts himself somewhat.  At another point in the book he stated that the vast majority of the USSR's agricultural production came from the farmer's small, private plots of 1/4 acre (10,000 square feet). 


In my previous life as a community garden organizer I learned that plots in Urban Community gardens tended to be between 64 square feet and 100 square feet.  Gardeners gravitated to growing flavorings like garlic, onions, basil, hot peppers, cherry tomatoes and garnishes.

Looking west.  Early June.  The ability to water makes a huge difference in many parts of the country or if you are trying to garden on sandy soil.

Looking east.  Late June.

Suburban Community gardens tended to consist of plots that were approximately 400 square feet.  Most growers added full sized tomatoes, lettuce, green beans, zucchini and cucumbers. Many also planted a token quantity of sweet corn, potatoes and winter squash.

Garden banner framed with sunflowers, purple podded pole beans and cucumbers

Hard Core gardeners had gardens that varied between 1500 square feet to 10,000 square feet.  The hard core gardeners grew everything the suburban gardeners grew -and- grew prodigious amounts of staples like cabbage, corn, dried beans, potatoes, sweet potatoes and other root crops.

Steve Solomon, author of Gardening When It Counts makes a compelling case for calculating how big of a garden you can handle and then doubling the size.  If you determine 2200 square feet is the magic number, then you fence off 4400 square feet and you alternate growing a garden on one side and a recovery crop like red clover on the other.

Yes, big gardens can absorb many hours of time.  And there are many people who hold down full time jobs, cart the kids to all kinds of activities AND have a big garden.  They do not watch much TV or spend much time decompressing at happy hour.  During an economic downturn there will be fewer dollars to waste in bars and, possibly, shorter hours at work. 

If you take to reading "doomer" books in a serious way, make sure you read more than one book and read everything on the internet (my blog included) with a very critical eye. Let the buyer beware.

Recreational Plumbing Update (Grrrr!)

That did not go the way I thought it would.

I draped the operating room with aluminum foil to minimize unplanned thermal events.  I scrubbed the area with a scotch brite pad and wiped the area with a rag prior to applying heat.

This is what I saw.  It was not what I wanted to see.

This was not going to be a quick 'sweat' job.  In fact (head hanging with shame) it is more than I want to tear off to repair it right.

The kids need the shower and I don't have the scratch in my checking account to call 'Ski, the family plumber. 

I liked the panty-hose and Shoe-Goo repair on the Cavalier hose so much, and Mrs ERJ had an orphaned nylon (Wonder why?) available.

Radiator hose clamp just slightly snugged to avoid crushing pipe to support anticipated hernia.

This repair came out much nicer than the one on the Cavalier.  For one thing I had a little more time as it was not 10 degrees F.  All that experience wrapping grafts with grafting strips paid off.

Image from HERE

Reliability professionals sometimes talk about the "Bathtub Shaped Failure Curve".  The assumption is that the early failure rate will be high (one side of the bathtub) due to craftsmanship issues.  Then the failure rate will drop down to a very low rate.  Finally, after many loading cycles, the failure rate will start to edge back up...the other side of the bathtub.  If that model is correct, then I should be golden if the repair makes it past two months or so.  But I am still going to leave the bucket beneath the drain.

A Joke

QUALITY ASSURANCE

SPECIFICATION WAP-007, MIL-TFP
PAGE 1 OF 1
REVISION 0

PIPING SPECIFICATIONS

• All pipe is to be made of a long hole, surrounded by metal centered around the hole.
• All pipe is to be hollow throughout the entire length.
• All pipe is to be of the very best quality, preferably tubular or pipular.
• All acid-proof pipe is to be made of acid proof metal.
• Outer-diameter of all pipes must exceed the inner-diameter. Otherwise, the hole will be on the outside of the pipe.
• All pipe is to be supplied with nothing in the hole so that water, steam, or other stuff can be put inside at a later date.
• All pipe is to be supplied without rust, as this can be more readily put on at the jobsites.
• All pipe is to be cleaned free of any covering such as mud, tar, barnacles or any form of manure before putting up, otherwise it will make lumps under the paint.
• All pipe over 500 feet in length must have the words "Long Pipe" clearly painted on each end so that the fitter will know that it is a long pipe.
• All pipe over two miles in length must also have these words painted on the middle so that the fitter will not have to walk the full length of the pipe to determine if it is long pipe or not.
• All pipe over six inches in diameter is to have the words "Large Pipe" painted on it, so that the fitter will not use it for small pipe.
• All pipe fittings are to be made of the same stuff as the pipe.
• All pipe closers are to be open on one end.
• No fittings are to be put on pipe unless specified. If you do, straight pipes become crooked pipes.

Government Pipe Specifications

Sent over by one of my buddies who still works at NASA....
---
1. All pipe is to be made of a long hole, surrounded by metal or plastic, centered around the hole.
2. All pipe is to be hollow throughout the entire length -- do not use holes of different length than the pipe.
3. The ID (Inside Diameter) of all pipe must not exceed their OD (Outside Diameter) -- otherwise the hole will be on the outside.
4. The pipe is to be supplied with nothing in the hole, so that water, steam or other stuff can be put inside at a later date.

5. All pipe is to be supplied without rust; this can be more readily applied at the job site. (NOTE: Some vendors are now able to supply pre-rusted pipes. If available in your area, this product is recommended as it will save a great deal of time at the job site.)
6. All pipe over 500ft (150m) in length should have the words "LONG PIPE" clearly painted on each side and end, so the contractor will know it's a long pipe.
7. Pipe over 2 miles (3.2km) in length must also have the words "LONG PIPE" painted in the middle so the contractor will not have to walk the entire length of the pipe to determine whether it is a long or short pipe.
8. All pipe over 6ft (1.83m) in diameter must have the words "LARGE PIPE" painted on it, so the contractor won't mistake it for a small pipe.
9. Flanges must be used on all pipe. Flanges must have holes from bolts that are quite separate from the big holes in the middle.
10. When ordering 90 or 30 degree elbows, be sure to specify left-hand or right-hand, otherwise you will end up going the wrong way.
11. Be sure to specify to your vendor whether you want level, uphill or downhill pipe. If you use downhill pipe for going uphill, the water will flow the wrong way.
12. All couplings should have either right-hand or left-hand threads, but do not mix the threads. Otherwise, as the coupling is being screwed on to one pipe, it is being unscrewed from the other.
13. All pipes shorter than 1/8in (3mm) are very uneconomical in use, requiring many joints. They are generally known as washers.
14. Joints in pipes for water must be watertight. Those pipes for compressed air, however, need only be airtight.
15. Lengths of pipes may be welded or soldered together. This method is not recommended for concrete or earthenware pipes.
16. Other commodities are often confused with pipes. These include; Conduit, Tube, Tunnel, and Drain. Use only genuine pipes.

- See more at: http://www.jumbojoke.com/government_pipe_specifications.html#sthash.Yrq0s7pt.dpuf

Government Pipe Specifications

Sent over by one of my buddies who still works at NASA....
---
1. All pipe is to be made of a long hole, surrounded by metal or plastic, centered around the hole.
2. All pipe is to be hollow throughout the entire length -- do not use holes of different length than the pipe.
3. The ID (Inside Diameter) of all pipe must not exceed their OD (Outside Diameter) -- otherwise the hole will be on the outside.
4. The pipe is to be supplied with nothing in the hole, so that water, steam or other stuff can be put inside at a later date.

5. All pipe is to be supplied without rust; this can be more readily applied at the job site. (NOTE: Some vendors are now able to supply pre-rusted pipes. If available in your area, this product is recommended as it will save a great deal of time at the job site.)
6. All pipe over 500ft (150m) in length should have the words "LONG PIPE" clearly painted on each side and end, so the contractor will know it's a long pipe.
7. Pipe over 2 miles (3.2km) in length must also have the words "LONG PIPE" painted in the middle so the contractor will not have to walk the entire length of the pipe to determine whether it is a long or short pipe.
8. All pipe over 6ft (1.83m) in diameter must have the words "LARGE PIPE" painted on it, so the contractor won't mistake it for a small pipe.
9. Flanges must be used on all pipe. Flanges must have holes from bolts that are quite separate from the big holes in the middle.
10. When ordering 90 or 30 degree elbows, be sure to specify left-hand or right-hand, otherwise you will end up going the wrong way.
11. Be sure to specify to your vendor whether you want level, uphill or downhill pipe. If you use downhill pipe for going uphill, the water will flow the wrong way.
12. All couplings should have either right-hand or left-hand threads, but do not mix the threads. Otherwise, as the coupling is being screwed on to one pipe, it is being unscrewed from the other.
13. All pipes shorter than 1/8in (3mm) are very uneconomical in use, requiring many joints. They are generally known as washers.
14. Joints in pipes for water must be watertight. Those pipes for compressed air, however, need only be airtight.
15. Lengths of pipes may be welded or soldered together. This method is not recommended for concrete or earthenware pipes.
16. Other commodities are often confused with pipes. These include; Conduit, Tube, Tunnel, and Drain. Use only genuine pipes.

- See more at: http://www.jumbojoke.com/government_pipe_specifications.html#sthash.Yrq0s7pt.dpuf

Government Pipe Specifications

Sent over by one of my buddies who still works at NASA....
---
1. All pipe is to be made of a long hole, surrounded by metal or plastic, centered around the hole.
2. All pipe is to be hollow throughout the entire length -- do not use holes of different length than the pipe.
3. The ID (Inside Diameter) of all pipe must not exceed their OD (Outside Diameter) -- otherwise the hole will be on the outside.
4. The pipe is to be supplied with nothing in the hole, so that water, steam or other stuff can be put inside at a later date.

5. All pipe is to be supplied without rust; this can be more readily applied at the job site. (NOTE: Some vendors are now able to supply pre-rusted pipes. If available in your area, this product is recommended as it will save a great deal of time at the job site.)
6. All pipe over 500ft (150m) in length should have the words "LONG PIPE" clearly painted on each side and end, so the contractor will know it's a long pipe.
7. Pipe over 2 miles (3.2km) in length must also have the words "LONG PIPE" painted in the middle so the contractor will not have to walk the entire length of the pipe to determine whether it is a long or short pipe.
8. All pipe over 6ft (1.83m) in diameter must have the words "LARGE PIPE" painted on it, so the contractor won't mistake it for a small pipe.
9. Flanges must be used on all pipe. Flanges must have holes from bolts that are quite separate from the big holes in the middle.
10. When ordering 90 or 30 degree elbows, be sure to specify left-hand or right-hand, otherwise you will end up going the wrong way.
11. Be sure to specify to your vendor whether you want level, uphill or downhill pipe. If you use downhill pipe for going uphill, the water will flow the wrong way.
12. All couplings should have either right-hand or left-hand threads, but do not mix the threads. Otherwise, as the coupling is being screwed on to one pipe, it is being unscrewed from the other.
13. All pipes shorter than 1/8in (3mm) are very uneconomical in use, requiring many joints. They are generally known as washers.
14. Joints in pipes for water must be watertight. Those pipes for compressed air, however, need only be airtight.
15. Lengths of pipes may be welded or soldered together. This method is not recommended for concrete or earthenware pipes.
16. Other commodities are often confused with pipes. These include; Conduit, Tube, Tunnel, and Drain. Use only genuine pipes.

- See more at: http://www.jumbojoke.com/government_pipe_specifications.html#sthash.Yrq0s7pt.dpuf

Another Snow Day

Exasperation!

The kids had a snow day Friday.  The Superintendent called another one today due to drifting snow and falling temps.  All indications are that we will have another one tomorrow.

Teenagers are like caraway seeds, fine in moderation and you are ready for a break after seeing them 9 meals in a row.

Plumbing

The drain from the kid's bathtub is leaking.  I used drain cleaner on it recently because it drained very slowly.  It fixed the slow drain but it must have also unplugged a crack in the solder joint.

My plan had been to wait for the kids to go to school before firing up the torch and attempting to reflow the solder.  I am going to have to rethink that plan because the leak is more than a lazy dripper,  it is a hyper-activer, over achieving kind of leak.

A Cheap Trip to the Doctor

Belladonna wanted to go to the Urgent Care after Mass today.  She has had classic immune system response discomfort:  Swollen lymph nodes, sore neck, head ache since Thursday.

I drove her.

On the drive to the Urgent Care the conversation turned to the ubiquitous cafeteria dish known as S-O-S, "Stuff"" on a Shingle, and we discussed its more common name. Belladonna enjoys SOS but adores crispy hash browns topped with sausage gravy...same thing only better, in her book.

As we pulled into the parking lot I asked her what her symptoms were.  Currently, she has a runny nose.  I told her it probably viral and the doc will tell her to drink fluids, take Tylenol and rest but really won't be able to do anything for you.  She still wanted to go.

As I drove around the parking lot, I asked "Why do you want to see the doctor?"

She said, "I am afraid it might be a sinus infection."

As I pulled into the parking place I asked her, "Is it clear and runny or thick, opaque and greenish?"

She said, "Clear and runny."

I said, "It is not a sinus infection."

Walking toward the building I said, "You know it is $100 out-of-pocket this time of year."

Belladonna spun around and started walking back to the Cavalier.  "Never mind."

Furious texting

Belladonna texted furiously the entire drive home.  I was sitting next to her driving.

Parts of her still wanted to see a doctor so she could hear, from a person wearing a white lab coat, what every parent knows.

I fixed her a plate of fried hash browns topped with sausage gravy (extra Tobasco) and sharp cheddar cheese and a side of toast with orange marmalade.  She may hate me.  She is a teenager and it is part of the growing-up script.  But at least she is well fed.

Fruit Trees

This is the season to order fruit trees.

My property is saturated with fruit trees.  I have so many fruit trees that I am removing many of them so I can properly care for the ones that have performed best.

I learned a few lessons along the way.

Pear trees are under-rated.  Pears are low maintenance, typically produce large amounts of bug-free, high quality fruit.  ERJ's top picks are Shenandoah, and Olympic.  Both varieties are fireblight resistant and ripen later in the season when it is more pleasant to pick fruit.

ERJ's apple picks are GoldRush, Liberty, and Spigold.  GoldRush and Liberty are precocious.  That is, they produce fruit as young trees.  They also bear abundantly.  Spigold is less precocious and tends to have a bigger tree.  If you want an apple tree to use as a shade tree then Spigold is a great choice.  I recommend a 2-1-1 ratio of GoldRush, Liberty and Spigold. 

I was dazzled by the fruit quality (absolutely no worms!) the first time I went to a cider pressing party in Brethren, Michigan.  The trees were growing in blow-sand.  The "thud" of an apple hitting the ground was quickly followed by the sound of deer stampeding to eat that apple.

The relationship between protein content in the fruit and the nitrogen level in the soil is supported by Andrew Lea's research.  My experience in Eaton Rapids supports Andrew's research.  Protein is the only major animal nutrient with nitrogen in it.  Protein is approximately 16% nitrogen by weight.  Bugs starve to death if there is not enough protein in the fruit!  Grow the tree to fill its allotted space with generous applications of nitrogen but then become a miser and become parsimonious in your nitrogen applications.

Bachelor Cooking

Belladonna received a lesson in "bachelor cooking" today.

Belladonna has been reveling in incredibly complicated and fussy juice "recipes". She asked questions like, "How much is 2/9ths of a muskmelon?"  She has not been impressed with, "Just throw in a 1/4...Measurements really don't matter when everything is edible all-by-itself."

She needed recalibrating.

The next batch was even better.  Brown and crispy around the edges.

 

Bachelor cookies:

• About one cup of smooth peanut butter (eyeball measurement)
• About one cup of sugar (eyeball measurement)
• Two eggs (you just need the insides, the shells go in the trash)
• A splash of vanilla extract

Stir until smooth

• add between a half cup and one cup of pancake mix (measure by eyeball)

Stir until smooth.

• Add chocolate chips.  (We used Ghirardelli 60% Cacao Bittersweet chocolate chips)
• Add more chocolate chips (Cookie dough expands when cooked, chocolate chips do not)
• Add chips from any left over bags in the cupboard (butterscotch, peanut butter....it does not matter.  They are all good)
• Nuts....are there any nuts up in that cupboard?
• Dump that last little bit of oatmeal out of that container.  We will tell Mrs ERJ we were cleaning up.

12 minutes at 350F on an Air-bake cookie sheet.

Cool 4 minutes before removing from cookie sheet.

Cool 10 more minutes.  Serve with cold milk.

The Pernicious Effects of "Maintenance" costs

The pernicious effects of maintenance, overhead and other hidden costs

"If you are not putting money in my pocket then you are taking money out of it."   -Every businessperson

The general model of animal growth is that most of the resources (in excess of maintenance) in young animals goes to growing frame (i.e., skeleton), then when the frame is about 2/3 grown the lion's share of resources (in excess of maintenance) transition to growing muscle (meat), then when the animal is nearly full sized the lion's share of the resources (in excess of maintenance) transition to growing fat.

Part of the art of growing animals profitably is to know when to sell them.  Ideally, it is the day they have sufficient fat to achieve the highest premium in the commodity market.  Typical weights are 120 pounds for speckle-faced lambs, 230 pounds for meat hogs, and 1250 pounds for beef.

A key point is that the only resources that actually contribute to animal growth are those "in excess of maintenance".  It is possible for animals to eat low grade forage that will stunt their growth such that they never reach a marketable condition.  Those animals never put a dime in the owner's pocket.  Rather, they take money out of the owner's pocket because they consume resources (capital, management time, feed, medications, etc.) that could be directed to profitable enterprises.   There is no "surplus" to harvest, for city people to eat.

Another subtlety that might be missed by the casual reader is that the difference between forage that is 50% digestible and 60% digestible is not 10% but infinity.  Domestic animals cannot meet their maintenance needs on 50% digestible forages, they actually lose weight.  Those same animals will gain weight, get pregnant and raise salable lambs and calves on forage that is slightly higher quality at 60% digestibility.

Picture from HERE

Increasing maintenance needs throw the effects of low quality (or quantity) forage into even starker contrast.  There is a reason why ranchers in harsh areas raise medium sized, thrifty mamas.  They are the original "low maintenance" girls.

Plants

It is similar with plants.  I was pruning apples trees today.  Fruit trees produce branches with glorious abandon.  The branches crowd and shade each other.  The branches that bear fruit are weighted down and sink into the gloom beneath the dense canopy. Once in the shade they become net consumers as they cannot even photosynthesize enough to meet their maintenance needs.

My pruning plan is to remove every other row of trees so I can move about the orchard, care for the trees and harvest the fruit.  The remaining trees are being pruned as a ray of sunshine can only be harvested once.  A canopy that is any denser than that will set more fruit than the tree can ripen to excellence and air flow will diminish and disease can flourish.

Again, it is a case of reducing the maintenance demands of the tree so it can produce a surplus that I, as a human, can benefit from.

I think that one can find parallels in human social and economic systems if one digs deeply enough.  Excessive commitment to maintaining legacies destroys surplusses, drags down productive enterprises and enervates the entire organism.

Schumpeter is sometimes cast as a champion of socialism, but one of his most important concepts is "Creative Destruction".  Failing enterprises must be allowed to fail so resources, including capital, can be released for redeployment to more productive enterprises.

Picture from HERE

There is an exception to the "ray of sunshine can only be harvested once" rule.  Additional species, species with other phototrophic needs or with offset periods of peak growth can also use those beams of sunlight.  That is how Trout Lilies, Trillium, Hepatica, Bloodroot, common violets, Ramps and chives flourish beneath maple trees.  They don't compete with those trees.  They take their nibbles, uncontested, at the beginning of the growing season.

One of the things that tickles me is that I found a gentleman who wants the apple wood.  He has a smoking business (?) and he will come over and pick up the wood.  His name is Mike Poneta and his phone number is 517-525-3046.

Stocks

Market performance week of Jan 20, 2014.  Picture from CNN.

The purpose of saving and investing is so you can sleep at night.  Those really steep cliffs you see are opening-bell declines when sell orders that accumulated overnight were transacted.

For stocks, ERJ favors Walnut, Birch Laminate, +25% Glass filled Poly Amide, and Equity Index funds. In that order.

ERJ is currently investing in acorns, pine seeds, elderberry cuttings, garden seeds, quality lubricants, tools and human capital.

Captain and I are planning a foray into the world of high finance with a stock IPO.  We intend to create a breed called the Brown Foghorn.  It is a cross between a White (Foghorn) Leghorn rooster and ISA Brown Hens.  Our stock offering will eat bugs and convert garbage to eggs.  Waste products are fertilizer, or with further processing, oxidizer for pyrotechnics.  Our management style is draconian, we behead under-performers.

This post is not intended as investment advice. Past results is not a guarantee of future performance.

Baby its Cold Out There

Due to unexplainable biological factors the Boston Terrier seems to be unable to perform certain, necessary body functions in the Great Outdoors.  Actual temperature was about 10, wind was 23 mph, wind chill was approximately -25 F.

He chose the gun safe as the target for his excrement.

Figures.  Boston is the most liberal city in the most liberal state in the Nation.

I do not like that dog, I do not.  But Kubota has bonded with him.

Time to investigate cat litter boxes.

Rabbit Hunting

One of the joys of living on 10 acres and being retired is I can reload 5 shotgun shells, pick up my shotgun and hunt rabbits.  The Lee Load-all is set up to drop 17 grains of Alliant Red Dot and 7/8 oz of #6 shot.  I add three black-eyed peas before I dump the shot to create a more acceptable crimp.

Footprint for optimum shell positioning on marked on base with black Sharpie.  Optimum crimp pattern, star point aligned with white mark, marked on pre-crimp detail with white paint pencil.

The hunting has not been all skittles and cream.  The snow is very crunchy and loud.  Most of the rabbits bust cover before I am in range.  7/8 oz of #6 out of a cylinder bored 12 gauge quickly runs out of pattern.

I am using my Go-to weapon, a Mossberg 500 with a Tasco Red-Dot sight (not related to powder).  A couple of interactions came into play.

• I was taking longer shots with the Red Dot scope.  Too long.  A case of more confidence than effective pattern
• Even the brightest setting on the scope washed out in the snow.  
• Batteries only seem to last 1/3 as long in the extreme (for Michigan) cold.  Good article HERE on batteries by Eastern Iowa Firearms Training.
  

  

  Spare battery between 1st & 2nd lace

  
  

• I had some failure-to-eject and failure-to-feed issues.  Too much frio and not enough brio. 
• The failure-to-feed issue was the shell not popping out of the magazine onto the elevator.  That bears investigation.
• The Mossberg was my dedicated slug gun for deer hunting.  We transitioned to a muzzleloader with old Mossy as backup.  I put lead shot in the butt stock because slugs kick.  I think it is time to take that shot out.

One of my personal weaknesses as a hunter is the tendency to turn into a spectator after the first shot.  There is some utility to doing this when deer hunting.  It is valuable to know where to look for the blood trail so you can recover the animal, reduce it to bag in the lingo.  The deer is usually accelerating and shots, after the first one, are low percentage shots.

It is a little different when hunting rabbits with a scatter-gun.  I had ample opportunities to flip off the safety, shoot, rack another round and shoot again.  It makes me a better shooter.

More shooting also floats "issues" into sight and that is the first step to resolving them.

I saw six rabbits but only shot one.  There are a boat load of rabbits out there!

Managing the Perception of Risk

Paul Slovic:  Excerpted from here

Picture from HERE

Slovic...summarizes the key qualitative characteristics that result in judgments that a certain activity is risky or not. People tend to be intolerant of risks that they perceive as being uncontrollable, having catastrophic potential, having fatal consequences, or bearing an inequitable distribution of risks and benefits.

Slovic notes that nuclear weapons and nuclear power score high on all of these characteristics.

Also unbearable in the public view are risks that are unknown, new, and delayed in their manifestation of harm. These factors tend to be characteristic of chemical technologies in public opinion. The higher a hazard scores on these factors, the higher its perceived risk and the more people want to see the risk reduced, leading to calls for stricter regulation.

Slovic ends his review with a nod toward sociological and anthropological studies of risk, noting that anxiety about risk may in some cases be a proxy for other social concerns. Many perceptions of risk are, of course, also socially and culturally informed.

Reduction of the perception of risk involves emphasis on identifying ways to mitigate and control the hazard.

Unfortunately, human beings tend to compensate or normalize hazard.  They compensated for Anti-Skid-Braking by driving faster, leaving less space between themselves and the vehicle in front of them and by driving when adverse weather conditions would otherwise inform them to stay off the road.  There is little net actuarial evidence that ABS reduced the number or severity of accidents.  Seat belts, Air Bags, improved structural crashworthiness also contribute to the number of poker chips in the kitty that give drivers the margin of comfort to drive more aggressively.

One exception to the statements above are a small population of extremely risk adverse drivers.  These drivers view all decisions through the lens of risk.  Their first decision sort is an A pile-C pile risk sort where less than five stars goes into the C-pile.  That is, their first action is to restrict their universe of choices to 5-Star safety options.  These drivers do not bargain or barter away "risk chips".

People's irrational risk math compels lawmakers to prohibit certain high risk activities, like driving under the influence.  Anecdotal evidence suggests that many (but not all) DUI drivers will compensate for their slower reaction times by driving more conservatively.  Problems arise during the learning curve, miscalibration of degree of impairment, desire to avoid LEO attention by not driving significantly slower than most other drivers, inability to integrate secondary hazards (like slippery roads or increased traffic) into their compensation calculation.

The effect of the DUI laws skew the "distribution of risks and benefits". As my co-worker "Fast Eddie" said when asked why he stopped drinking, "Its not fun anymore." Having to blow into the horn was a real mood killer and put a major damper on his love life.

 To reduce perceptions of risk

• Emphasize the parameters that are controllable
• Grant authority to control as many parameters as possible (morphine pump)
• Populate memories with stories where people survived a risk or were strengthened by them
• Denominate risk in a currency that people are already comfortable with.  One study denominated risk in "cigarette equivalents".  Another common actuarial currency is "hundred miles driven"
• Populate "Canary in coal mine" indicators.  That is, help people identify signals they can use to switch from risk-comfortable mode to risk-adverse mode.  Example:  "I know I am getting angry when my breathing gets heavy, my face gets hot and my fists clench.  I need to take a break when any of these start to happen so I don't say or do something we will all regret."  Given that self-awareness, a risk adverse person can then discuss hot-button issues in a relationship.

 

To increase the perception of risk

• Decrease the perception of control.  "If you do that then you will be at the mercy of...."
• Point out that their (high risk) decisions destroy the autonomy and control of potential co-victims (like family).
• Emphasize catastrophic, fatal, capricious and arbitrary consequences of the fickle hand of fate.  Graphic is good because the "logic" is happening at the emotional "motivation" level, not at the rational-logical level.
• Demand logical, sequential tasks as gatekeeper to risky activity, a checklist for example: (Body armor, pepper spray, multiple escape routes, valid passport...maybe I don't want to date ERJ's daughter).  Checklists throw down bread crumbs that lead from the emotional mind to the rational mind.  The device in Fast Eddie's car was defeatable but it required tasks be done in a certain order.  The necessity of performing 1-2-3-4...activates the parts of the brain that also pair Action-Consequence.
• Tilt the Risk-Benefit trade-off
• Work the last sentence of the quoted passage: "Many perceptions of risk are, of course, also socially and culturally informed."

I will add to this list as more information becomes available.

Field Expedient Repairs

"I found it, Dad!"

I had Belladonna looking for the leak in my windshield washer hose.  It was not hard to find.

Hose was not split by freezing  It looks like a kink that fatigued.

Close up.  Hose separated when I pulled the clip holding the hose to the fender.

A Redneck can fix anything with duct tape and a can of WD-40.

A liberal frosting of Shoe Goo was smeared over the duct tape and a good inch upstream and down.  The joint was wrapped with stretchy, nylon mesh recycled from the top of women's hosiery.

Only time will tell if the repair holds up.  The Shoe Goo quickly became clotted as it cooled in the 10 degree Fahrenheit air.  54 years of making and eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches served me well.  Still, it was like trying to spread cold frosting on a very warm cupcake.

The nylon reinforcement was cut from the stretchy band at the top of a pair of women's hosiery.  My mental picture was that the Shoe Goo would squeeze up through the netting before it hardened.

And now I wait a day before firing up the windshield washer.

Pine Nuts

I started stratifying seeds for planting this spring. The seeds of many species require a cool-moist cycle before germinating.  Sixty days at 40 degrees is the default but some species require double stratification or other unusual schedules.  Some fruit breeders (Rom, Forsline) believe that long stratification cycles are indicative of late spring budding, indicating that one could sort for resistance to spring frosts by planting only those seeds that take longest to break seed dormancy.

I thought a few pictures of some pine seeds might be interesting.  These seeds are eye-poppingly large to an mid-Western guy who is used to Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus).

Korean Nut Pine.  Inexpensive seedlings available HERE.

Jeffrey Pine from Sierra Nevada mountains

Lacebark Pine from China

Ideology

Having an ideology is all well and good, but it actually has to work in terms of providing a satisfactory life for much of the population.  -Dmitry Orlov

One quirk of human nature is the urge, in the face of faltering output, to redouble our efforts and to intensify the application of "solutions" that appeared to work in the past.


B.F. Skinner offers a possible origin for these "solutions" (Superstitious Pigeons)

One of Skinner's experiments examined the formation of superstition in one of his favorite experimental animals, the pigeon. Skinner placed a series of hungry pigeons in a cage attached to an automatic mechanism that delivered food to the pigeon "at regular intervals with no reference whatsoever to the bird's behavior."

Skinner suggested that the pigeons behaved as if they were influencing the automatic mechanism with their "rituals" and that this experiment shed light on human behavior

The experiment might be said to demonstrate a sort of superstition. The bird behaves as if there were a causal relation between its behavior and the presentation of food, although such a relation is lacking. There are many analogies in human behavior. Rituals for changing one's fortune at cards are good examples. A few accidental connections between a ritual and favorable consequences suffice to set up and maintain the behavior in spite of many unreinforced instances. 

Tversky and Kahneman offer the following vignette to explain how even maladaptive responses can be reinforced, leading the decision maker to believe that they are exerting positive control over events when, in fact, they are poisoning the results.

The failure to recognize the import of regression (to the mean) can have pernicious consequences, as illustrated by the following observation. In a discussion of flight training, experienced instructors noted that praise for an exceptionally smooth landing is typically followed by a poorer landing on the next try, while harsh criticism after a rough landing is usually followed by an improvement on the next try. The instructors concluded that verbal rewards are detrimental to learning, while verbal punishments are beneficial, contrary to accepted psychological doctrine.

This conclusion is unwarranted because of the presence of regression toward the

mean. As in other cases of repeated examination, an improvement will usually follow a poor performance and a deterioration will usually follow an outstanding performance, even if the instructor does not respond to the trainee's achievement on the first attempt. Because the instructors had praised their trainees after good landings and admonished them after poor ones, they reached the erroneous and potentially harmful conclusion that punishment is more effective than reward.

Thus, the failure to understand the effect of regression leads one to overestimate the effectiveness of punishment (or any remediation applied in response to dire circumstances) ...Consequently, the human condition is such that, by chance alone, one is most often rewarded for punishing others and most often punished for rewarding them.

Biorythms

The true believers interpret the natural biorythms of the economy and their personal fortunes as validation of their ideology.  The upswing after a low validates the intensification.  Downturns and failures of the rain-dance are seen as evidence of impure believers and/or violation of previously unknown rules.  Acceptable behaviors are increasingly codified until Merlyn's Anthill is achieved; "Everything not mandatory is prohibited."

Momentum is gained

When times are tough people feel powerless.  They look around for the Man-with-a-Plan.  Many are irresistibly attracted to "winning programs."

Snarky (but very funny) video about the class of people who affiliate with "winning" athletic programs.

Ideology

During the end game, Ideology becomes nothing more than mental masterbation.  Practitioners trade connection with the real world for delusions of grandeur and the illusion of control.  Real people avoid shaking hands with them.

Mike Shepler

One of the best supervisors I know is Mike Shepler.  I once asked him his secret, "How do you make it look so easy?"

His answer took me off guard.  "I smoke cigarettes."

He elaborated.  "I cannot tell you how many times I ran into a brick wall, went out to the loading dock to smoke a cigarette and when I came back, the problem was gone."

I asked him to give me an example.

"Last week I had an unused office that had to be moved to make room for parts storage.  I could not get Facilities to return my calls.  I would have taken care of it myself but the Ergo-fascist prohibit production people from lifting more than 25 pounds.  I mentioned my unsolvable problem to my production people and went out to smoke a cigarette.  When I came back the office had magically moved 40 feet to the north."

I asked, "Weren't you worried about those guys blowing out a back or a knee?"

Mike replied, "I didn't tell anybody to do anything.  I did not see anybody do anything.  I don't know what you are talking about.  It was magic, magic I tell you.

"No, seriously, these guys can throw 60 pound hay bales completely over a hay wagon.  They do it all summer long.  The Ergo standards are BS.  They exist because somebody scammed the Workman's Comp system and the easiest way for Ergo to get off the hook is to create increasingly unworkable rules that make my job harder."

Contempt for the system

Picture from HERE

The knights joust in the courts of Du Lac, killing and dying to defend the honor of their sacred scrap of ribbon (their ideology).

The middle managers and Walmart Wolverines fill the stands;  they chant, cheer and swoon. Their need for the illusion of power and control fed by the Deus ex machina theater unfolding on the field beneath them.

Picture from HERE

The peasants grub around in the dirt, grow food and kill the coyotes that are eating their chickens.  They game the system by acting stupid and by ignoring the system in thousands of undetectable ways.  The peasants endure.  Nothing changes.