---Disclaimer: This essay is intended for entertainment purposes. I am not credentialed to offer financial advise. ENTERTAINMENT. End Disclaimer---
One of the consequences of the US Dollar being the world "reserve" currency is that it is in high demand outside the US. Outer Elbownia needs dollars to buy goat curds from Beheffistan and Behefficstan needs dollars to buy hemp fibers from Outer Elbownia.
Loss of world reserve status for the dollar means that the dollars lubricating the wheels of world commerce will come racing back home like salmon swimming upstream to spawn.
Outer Elbownia and Beheffistan will race each other to spend the dollars while they still have purchasing power in the US.
The price of everything is expected to go up. This has investors rattled because they are scrambling to figure out the best speculative "play". It will be similar to when the Soviet Arme swept over NAZI Germany near the end of WWII like locust and disassembled entire manufacturing and power plants and shipped them back to the motherland.
This is what Outer Elbownia and Beheffistan are already buying from the US. Values are average US exports for 2019 and 2020 in millions of dollars. Categories are color-coded and aggregated at the top.
| Capital goods, except automotive | 504,117.00 |
| Industrial supplies and materials | 500,174.50 |
| Consumer goods | 190,271.50 |
| Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines | 144,837.50 |
| Foods, feeds, and beverages | 135,439.00 |
| Pharmaceutical preparations | 59,868.50 |
| Crude oil | 57,616.00 |
| Industrial machines, other | 57,256.00 |
| Semiconductors | 52,517.50 |
| Other parts and accessories of vehicles | 51,413.00 |
| Passenger cars, new and used | 50,163.50 |
| Petroleum products, other | 48,214.00 |
| Engines-civilian aircraft | 46,524.50 |
| Electric apparatus | 40,925.50 |
| Medical equipment | 37,707.50 |
| Plastic materials | 35,876.50 |
| Fuel oil | 34,264.50 |
| Telecommunications equipment | 33,413.50 |
| Chemicals-other | 33,223.50 |
| Civilian aircraft | 30,279.50 |
| Computer accessories | 27,865.50 |
| Chemicals-organic | 27,672.50 |
| Other industrial supplies | 26,653.50 |
| Cell phones and other household goods, n.e.c. | 25,842.00 |
| Measuring, testing, control instruments | 23,799.50 |
| Soybeans | 23,281.50 |
| Industrial engines | 23,150.00 |
| Parts-civilian aircraft | 21,944.50 |
| Nonmonetary gold | 20,973.50 |
| Trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles | 20,399.50 |
| Meat, poultry, etc. | 20,382.00 |
| Engines and engine parts | 19,215.50 |
| Finished metal shapes | 18,874.50 |
| Gas-natural | 17,049.00 |
| Natural gas liquids | 16,874.00 |
| Computers | 16,144.50 |
| Gem diamonds | 15,866.50 |
| Other foods | 15,673.00 |
| Precious metals, other | 13,991.00 |
| Toiletries and cosmetics | 13,114.00 |
| Newsprint | 12,244.00 |
| Laboratory testing instruments | 12,068.50 |
| Generators, accessories | 11,886.00 |
| Materials handling equipment | 11,370.00 |
| Artwork, antiques, stamps, etc. | 10,483.50 |
| Excavating machinery | 9,833.00 |
| Nuts | 9,561.00 |
| Corn | 9,389.50 |
| Chemicals-inorganic | 9,251.00 |
| Jewelry, etc. | 9,172.50 |
| Animal feeds, n.e.c. | 9,091.00 |
| Photo, service industry machinery | 9,001.00 |
| Toys, games, and sporting goods | 8,699.00 |
| Chemicals-fertilizers | 8,491.50 |
| Fruits, frozen juices | 8,260.50 |
| Pulpwood and woodpulp | 8,060.50 |
| Steelmaking materials | 7,417.00 |
| Iron and steel mill products | 7,237.00 |
| Nonferrous metals, other | 7,102.00 |
| Agricultural machinery, equipment | 6,939.50 |
| Vegetables | 6,921.50 |
| Aluminum and alumina | 6,757.00 |
| Copper | 6,697.50 |
| Other consumer nondurables | 6,692.50 |
| Apparel, household goods - textile | 6,548.50 |
| Wheat | 6,440.00 |
| Mineral supplies-manufactured | 6,352.50 |
| Manmade cloth | 6,127.00 |
| Cotton, raw | 6,063.50 |
| Metallurgical grade coal | 5,994.50 |
| Bakery products | 5,993.00 |
| Coal and fuels, other | 5,975.50 |
| Household appliances | 5,961.50 |
| Metalworking machine tools | 5,795.50 |
| Iron and steel products, other | 5,783.00 |
| Dairy products and eggs | 5,207.50 |
| Logs and lumber | 5,036.50 |
| Fish and shellfish | 5,009.50 |
| Furniture, household goods, etc. | 4,531.00 |
| Industrial rubber products | 4,359.50 |
| Shingles, molding, wallboard | 4,326.00 |
| Agric. industry-unmanufactured | 4,158.50 |
| Drilling & oilfield equipment | 4,098.50 |
| Books, printed matter | 3,856.00 |
| Wood, glass, plastic | 3,810.00 |
| Food, tobacco machinery | 3,481.00 |
| Agriculture-manufactured, other | 3,430.50 |
| Railway transportation equipment | 3,352.50 |
| Televisions and video equipment | 3,314.50 |
| Agric. farming-unmanufactured | 3,254.00 |
| Nonfarm tractors and parts | 3,061.50 |
| Automotive tires and tubes | 2,977.50 |
| Apparel,household goods-nontextile | 2,865.50 |
| Synthetic rubber-primary | 2,834.00 |
| Finished textile supplies | 2,768.00 |
| Oilseeds, food oils | 2,610.00 |
| Pleasure boats and motors | 2,303.50 |
| Stereo equipment, etc. | 2,169.50 |
| Pulp and paper machinery | 2,143.50 |
| Wine, beer, and related products | 2,099.00 |
| Business machines and equipment | 2,064.50 |
| Alcoholic beverages, excluding wine | 2,048.00 |
| Rice | 2,007.00 |
| Musical instruments | 1,937.00 |
| Cotton fiber cloth | 1,674.50 |
| Recorded media | 1,444.50 |
| Glass-plate, sheet, etc. | 1,266.00 |
| Numismatic coins | 1,261.00 |
| Marine engines, parts | 1,159.50 |
| Cookware, cutlery, tools | 1,096.50 |
| Wood supplies, manufactured | 1,058.00 |
| Sorghum, barley, oats | 1,046.50 |
| Specialized mining | 1,002.50 |
| Textile, sewing machines | 950.00 |
| Hides and skins | 944.00 |
| Rugs | 827.50 |
| Sports apparel and gear | 760.50 |
| Tobacco, unmanufactured | 709.50 |
| Nonmetallic minerals | 705.50 |
| Tobacco, manufactured | 698.50 |
| Nuclear fuel materials | 687.50 |
| Bodies and chassis for passenger cars | 668.00 |
| Leather and furs | 662.50 |
| Hair, waste materials | 539.50 |
| Glassware, chinaware | 517.00 |
| Nontextile floor tiles | 479.50 |
| Nursery stock, etc. | 442.50 |
| Nonagricultural foods, etc. | 418.00 |
| Commercial vessels, other | 341.50 |
| Electric energy | 316.50 |
| Spacecraft, excluding military | 143.50 |
| Tapes, audio and visual | 129.50 |
| Vessels, excluding scrap | 85.50 |
The problem with speculative plays is that they tend to be one-of with little possibility of repeats.
My advice is to think on a smaller scale. Think of something you can make using locally abundant materials and labor. Then procure the skills and basic equipment needed to manufacture that product.
To make the idea a little bit more concrete, you could make tool holsters or knee-pads by vacuum forming material cut from the sides of five-gallon buckets. You could repair clothing with thread-and-needle (loss of value in US Dollar means the third world will no longer give us clothing for little more than the cost of shipping it.) Being able to heat, form, cut or cast metals might be useful. Anything related to security will be valuable.
That is one reason to garden. Seeds can be saved, even hybrid seeds. When replanted they will produce something edible, even if every tomato or carrot is not identical. Once started, a garden can remain productive with very few external inputs (outside of the owner's sweat) for centuries.
Breeding dogs or sheep or cattle...those are other options.
Adaptability make do or do without, salvage recycling, gardening BTW I don't recommend seed saving from hybrids as the LABOR, TIME Water and Fertilizer needs are the same BUT the amount of food generated will not be. Heirlooms is what I grow. Those seeds will be valued by others.
ReplyDeleteLabor, Time and such are immutable factors. Don't waste them in unprofitable efforts.
Michael, have you ever tried saving hybrid seeds and replanting them? Are you familiar with the concept of landrace gardening?
DeleteYes, actually I HAVE tried several years to do hybrid seed saving. Not worth the effort but I GAINED a whole new appreciation for the efforts and hard science of Plant Breeders. Visted one such site, SERIOUS Bio Security there as to prevent contamination.
DeleteVisited Joeseph Lofthouse to see his Landrace efforts.
He STARTS with Heirlooms and allows them to cross breed and then HAND SELECTS for best performance.
I have a couple of his landrace in my current garden.
He also will tell you of the MANY FAILURES of his efforts.
When you can go to the Grocery store and BUY Food a Failure is just an annoyance.
When you NEED those Calories and Proteins ITS a REAL ISSUE.
I “like” the example used in Lee Child’s (not even vaguely realistic, but enjoyable escapism nevertheless) first book “Killing Floor”:
ReplyDelete(To simplify) with roughly twice as many dollars outside the US (used for trade and/or stable/safe stores of wealth) as inside, the US effectively has a (circa, at the time) 26 billion dollar loan given to it annually, without costing it anything (other than the cost of printing it). Threaten the “reliability” of the dollar and that money will suddenly return all at once, and the US will effectively have to pay back all that ‘loan’ in one go (and it can’t afford to do so).
Much of the wealth of the US has been enjoying (since Bretton Woods) is based on reserve currency and petrodollar status funding. Remove both and … it ain’t going to be pretty.
The US remains (even now, after globalists selling most of it to China) both a massive industrial economy and the largest market but … after … (and including the removal of safe global trade enforced by “America as the world’s policeman” – with the Navy enforcing free/safe trade routes ‘even’ for its enemies - from which the US benefits more than most) and … the word’s economy is going to become somewhat ‘volatile’ (and we’re all going to be much poorer’).
It ‘will’ affect the US (the golden age will be well and truly over – the bloat and freebies will simply cease, with resultant guaranteed ‘incendiary’ reaction from certain demographics), but quite a few countries are not only going to suffer much (much!) more, but probably cease to even exist (without that ‘free’ trade guarantee and protection).
“Interesting Times”.
I’m actually moderately optimistic. I don’t see any real alternative to the dollar remaining reserve and petrodollar (not even the BRICS members trust each others currencies, let alone regimes). This is politics and brinkmanship. ‘We’ (the world) may end up with two, or more, ‘factions’ but … underneath the politics I suspect both/all will still be using either the dollar or gold as currency (whatever the claims).
But, as you say, I suspect (gardening and every other real-world examples of self sufficiency) will become much more attractive, and important (at ‘every’ level, from the personal, familial up to the national - no more of all that 'just buying food produced half a world away stupid', but especially 'relying on your enemy to manufacture your defence material stupid').
The hilarious thing? The globalists will/are destroying the very basis for their globalism by doing this. There may be a China/Russia/etc. ‘zone’ but there wont ever be a such a world.
I’m too old (and decrepit) for it to really affect me, so … I see my role as, providing the basics for myself should I need them, and … storing ‘things’ (from dead-tree books, tools, materials and basic necessities - you know, the basics you need to even start thinking about building better type things*) for ‘after’ for those who will need them.
[*It's surprising just how much C18 tech is still out there, and in working order. And embarrassing how much I remember using as a 'youngster']
Circumstances will level the playing field. Quickly. The formerly disdained occupations will experience a Renaissance and the parasitic occupations will be quickly starved out of existence.
ReplyDeleteFinancialization skills might be transferrable to ditch digging, shit shoveling and similar occupations. DEI skillsets will crossover to begging, scavenging and occupying the stocks in front of the courthouse.
This cat:
ReplyDeletehttps://comeandmakeit.blogspot.com/?m=1
Is an expat doing plastic injection molding from recycled trash in asia... interesting tales, but I do like the idea.
There will be no "world's reserve currency" by the end of the year. Trading between countries will be done with commodity based currencies. (This is already happening and increasing)
ReplyDeleteAlso, measuring imports/exports in dollars is misleading. Measure trade by volumes between nations and you get a better picture.
The scariest graph G7 has ever seen.
Deletehttps://didacticmind.com/2023/04/the-future-in-one-picture.html
The future of the world does not rely on the US any longer.
A huge, often overlooked, source of wood for projects or firewood is pallets. They're free everywhere. They're not difficult to disassemble if you get two essential tools. You need a pallet busting tool (Amazon) and a pneumatic reverse nail driver (also Amazon). It looks like a nail gun with a long tube. Other common hand tools are needed, but these two are nearly essential. My wife and I, both in our mid 60's, can break down a 20 foot trailer load of pallets, stacked 4 feet high, in about 9-12 hours. I've built sheds, lean-to's, and finished furniture with this wood. Burned it in the fireplace for heat. I have several nice pieces of exotic wood stored in my shop for future projects. I've sold some large lumber from some 20 foot pallets I found. You can even reuse the nails, if you like.
ReplyDeleteI live near a larger metropolitan area so I have two rules for myself that have come from experience. I only take the pallets with the best wood. I only get them from the places that have a large and often continual stockpile. Less waste and less driving.
Gloves.....GLOVES, I tell ya.
ReplyDeleteI have 2 moving boxes (30×30?) full of gloves, mostly work/gardening.
That's the strangest of my limited "preps". No water storage, aside from 15 one gallon bottles, no purification. Maybe 2 months of food....but by golly I got gloves
Will china take our plastic bs money to sell my blood pressure pills that come from china? Woody
ReplyDeleteMy several hundred classic how to books would be useful, I wonder how many have been republished electronically. Urban dwellers will have the problem of people who only know how to live on government handouts start roaming for whatever they can steel. Even back in the 90’s I had a daughter on WIC benefits who was appalled that her friends didn’t know what to do with dried beans!
ReplyDeleteThat's what most people don't understand. Printing trillions of dollars out of thin air is bad, when they come racing home we get weimar x1000. May God Bless us all when that happens and it will we just don't know when.
ReplyDeleteLocally produced will be the word of the day, followed by locally sourced - with high energy prices, very little will be moving and it will not be moving far.
ReplyDeleteThe fellow that can make stuff locally will do fine IF the Gimmie Dats (Standard ones and Giant Economy Sized Gov.com versions) don't rob and or kill him off.
ReplyDeleteSkills, tools and access to materials. In the short term skills like remolding plastics like come and make it blog is worthwhile but even now with plenty of plastic waste he is constantly scrounging plastics. The supply of plastics will drop off rapidly.
Being able to do things like making extra tomatoes and peppers from suckers will have eager buyers for ready to plant tomatoes.
Seed savers will have trade good, especially for the Biannual veggies like Onions and most root crops. Really a bummer to find out two year old Onion seed is mostly worthless. Excellent storage in a functional fridge will generally give you an extra year of decent seed germination. Maybe a reason for a small solar setup and fridge?