Thursday, April 6, 2023

A little bit of work and a little bit of playing with numbers

 

I am using plastic straws of different colors to identify different varieties of tomatoes. The yellow are Orange Icicle. The red are Carmello and the blue are Stupice.

Freakish weather. The ground is saturated and it is very, very soft.

Short fence posts going in for the rabbit and woodchuck fence. I drove in a T-post to start the hole. I yanked out the T-post and then used a maul to drive in the Black Locust posts. I never claimed to "do" pretty.

Eight foot spacing

Guess where I saw this

Violet colored violets

Pink violets

Crocus (Crocii?) peeking up through a mulch of leaves

Shepherds purse?

"Scientists have referred to this species as a 'protocarnivore', since it has been found that its seeds attract and kill nematodes as a means to locally enrich the soil."  Wikipedia

Historic rates of flu and pneumonia mortality

According the the CDC Wonder database tool, the average rate of deaths attributed to influenza and pneumonia in the 2015-2019 time-frame was 260 deaths per day in January and a skootch more than 200 for Feb and March.

According to the same database tool, the Covid death-rates for 2020 as factor of the historic flu+pneumonia rate reported in the previous paragraph looks like this:

If the flu+pneumonia deaths were folded into the Covid counts, then those factors should be reduced by 1.0 which suggests that Covid had a death-rate between 3 and 10 times that of seasonal flu + pneumonia. Given the modes at 5+/-1 and 8.2 +/-0.5 you could make a credible claim that the true death-rate for the Covid strain(s) in circulation in 2020 were somewhere between 4 times (5-1) and 7 times (8.2-1) that of the seasonal flu.

Not Ebola, but nothing to trifle with if you were old, feeble, had breathing issues or were unlucky.

From a Darwinian standpoint, the deaths are similar to "sales" due to rebates. They are pull-ahead sales. That is, it is not an incremental sale because it is a sale you would have made next year without the rebate. You pulled it forward in time and you face a drought in sales next year if you withdraw the rebates.

Many of the deaths attributed to Covid were people who were going to die in the next three years. It was an unexpected gust of wind that blew them off the high-wire earlier than expected.

I expect to get some push-back because we know the data is dirty. The thing is, ALL data has noise in it. But even piss-poor data has information embedded in it. 

Nashville shooter

One of the commenters in an earlier post noted that the Nashville shooter ran through a lot of ammo.

While not an expert, I think that is evidence that the lock-down plan for the school did everything one could reasonably expect of it 

.AND.

The staff took the drills and practice runs seriously.

The shooting was a terrible, crappy, unfair, evil thing to happen to that school. Sifting through the ashes, they can be a good example of why the drills are serious business and perhaps other schools will follow suit. They can save lives at other schools.

11 comments:

  1. The only solution to insane shooters
    Shoot back.

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  2. Local funeral home had a banner year in 2020 & 2021. Expected the numbers to go back to historical norms in 2022 and 2023, and so far, death rates remain elevated.

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    Replies
    1. You laugh, but I am an investor. This Kung Flu has turned my conventional thinking on its head. Where do you stash your money when the stock market turns down? Food distribution? Population shrinking. Insurance companies? Losing money due to excess deaths! Who's making money? Morticians and casket companies.
      Ferengi rule #1.

      Delete
  3. Daily visitor but have never commented. Just wanted to let you know I love your site, especially the gardening stuff and DIY. Gives me a good perspective on gardening in an entirely different part of the country.

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  4. "The only solution to insane shooters
    Shoot back."


    Shoot back and score hits, so train, practice, train some more, practice some more.
    Carry always, carry everywhere, carry what's effective, get good, then keep getting better, stay alert.

    I see where the Tennessee is working on changing the law to allow more, and easier, access for arming teachers. I would hope that when schools embrace that they also seek *highly competent* and non-police consultation and advice on increasing security and the necessary violent response to such threats, particularly within the unique requirements and constraints of community, physical structure, terrain, and personnel of multiple individual facilities.

    I would hope that parents take serious heed of those facilities which have taken the issue to both heart, pocketbook and practice, and commit the irreplaceable value of trusting them with their children.

    Why non-police? When your only tool is a hammer, etc. The "Only Ones" are too structured, too resistant to out-of-the-box approaches, and too defensive over what they see as "invasion of their domain."

    Done right, high security, even very high security, is minimally invasive while still providing the necessary initial deterrence to prevent occurrences in the first place, and a competent and effective response when the deterrence fails.

    I'm not at all convinced police are even slightly good at that entire continuum; there are precious few Independent Contractors good enough at it as well, and I doubt any are willing to sacrifice their principles and income by practicing their skills within the police bureaucracy.

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  5. I have a foot and a half of snow to melt, then ground to thaw before any garden work is possible. normal planting is late may! southern saskatchewan

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  6. "Many of the deaths attributed to Covid were..." accidents, influenza, anything but the more profitable covid diagnosis. The hospitals lied and the data is much worse than "noisy."

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  7. Of the ones who actually died "of covid" many of the deaths were because of the treatment. Doctors withheld treatment until patients were viremic, then used ventilators to destroy their lungs, remdesivere to destroy their kidneys. Deliberately dangerous and ineffective treatments, deliberately too late. The government paid extra for patients who died, so the hospitals killed them.

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  8. A good friend was diagnosed with Covid via a PCR test. My wife was diagnosed with Covid via a PCR test as well, but oddly my test came back negative (and we do live together and she's a good kisser).
    My friend was admitted to the hospital and put on Remdesevir. Within 24 hours he had kidney failure and died.
    To say the data is "noisy" is a huge misnomer. It was for the most part downright criminal. You cannot trust any of the so called "data" from any government health authority, whether on the state or federal level because it is tainted to the point it is unuseable.
    We will never know how many succumbed to Covid. They were counting heart attacks with an accompanying positve PCR test as a "Covid death". Hospitals were desperate to label anything as a covid death because the federal government payoffs were in the hundreds of thousands of dollars (which varied by state-here it was $245,000 per fatality, but only $38,000 per case that survived the Remdesevir).
    The only data we can now trust and verify is on the excess death rates worldwide (the authorities cannot alter or hide this).
    And the deaths are not from the flu or variants thereof, they are now from the experimental injections.

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  9. Something odd about the shooter. It was wearing black and white Nike shoes in the videos. In the police body cam after they shot it, it was wearing flame patterned multi colored shoes.

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  10. I think, I can never earn over which I paid by my precedent employer, but I was wrong, u world is so large to try their fate. but now I am making $52/h even more,and easily earn minimum $1300/week, on the experience everyone must try to do work online, easy way to earn, here’s an example Click Here..... Everyone Can Online Earn

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