Friday, December 10, 2021

Follow-up on Covid Post

Raven observed "If you have ears to the ground in the local area, it would be extremely interesting to know how many of the cases in hospital have had the jab."

According to Official Michigan Documents produced by Top People

Source*

12% of the cases in the time period starting January 15, (Presumably 2021 but it could be January 2020 when Covid started) and November 5, 2021 occurred in "fully vaccinated" patients

11.8% of the Covid patients who were hospitalized were "fully vaccinated", that is both shots and a minimum of 14 days had passed since the second shot. That suggests that there is very little reduction in the severity of the symptoms with the vaccine unless there is some degree of self-selection going on with regard to getting tested for Covid.

12.3% of the patients who died due to Covid were fully vaccinated. The difference between 12%, 11.8% and 12.3% is probably not statistically significant. Again, there appears to be little benefit with regards to reduced severity in being fully vaccinated except....

Higher risk categories of the base population are more likely to be vaccinated than the lower risk groups. To deconstruct this issue it will be necessary to analyze age-stratified data.

The question of whether the data starts on January 15, 2020 or January 15, 2021 is a very big deal as there were NO fully vaccinated people for the first surge and almost no fully vaccinated people during the second surge. Even entering into the third surge, 45% of Michigan's population is not "fully vaccinated" and that seems to have flat-lined since about July of 2021.

The data that would clarify the questions would be to compare September, 2021-through-Dece 1, 2021 vac/nonvac populations in five-year "bins".

Bonus charts

The three surges in Michigan. The picket-fence appearance is due to Sunday tests not being process until Monday or Tuesday. That is why the most credible data is the seven-day moving average. It smooths out the jiggles due to the weekend.

Percentage of "Confirmatory" tests for Covid 19 in Michigan that were positive. Lines for 0, 10% and 20% added by ERJ. Time-line hash marks for vaccine availability also added by ERJ

*The image I show is not the entire graphic shown on the webpage. I chose to not present the bottom half of the page because the original presenters chose to change the denominator in a way that made an apples/oranges comparison both highly likely and made the mistake very likely to not be noticed.

That is, the non-vax population was represented as 88% of all positive Covid cases while the vax population characterized as the percentage of all people vax who tested positive for Covid.

Since only 15% of Michigan's population has officially tested positive for Covid, that made the risk of getting Covid, being hospitalized or dying of Covid appear to be 1/7th (in favor of vax) what it would have appeared if they remained consistent in the way they chose to "normalize" the raw data.

I avoided the issue of having to reconcile this anomaly by not presenting the cooked numbers that favored vax. I doubt that many professional journalists notices the slight-of-hand.

7 comments:

  1. Sorry to go off-topic, but this might interest you and your readers:
    www.lowtechmagazine.com/2020/04/fruit-trenches-cultivating-subtropical-plants-in-freezing-temperatures.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. It's all a numbers game now. Good luck getting ANY accurate data...

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  3. I'll start paying attention to the Vaxxed/Unvaxxed numbers when the following sub-categories are listed:

    Unvaccinated -
    1. No shots at all.
    2. 1 shot of the Moderna
    3. 1 shot of the Pfizer
    4. 2 shots of the Moderna, less than 14 days since #2.
    5. 2 shots of the Pfizer, less than 14 days since #2.
    6. 1 shot of the J&J, less than 14 days have passed.

    {Source for definiton of Unvaxxed - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated.html}

    Vaxxed -
    1. Moderna 2 shots, passed 14 days.
    2. Pfizer 2 shots, passed 14 days.
    3. J&J, passed 14 days.

    (How many more sub-categories would there be now that it is "safe" to mix-and-match the Pfizer and Moderna; and then factor in the booster(s)?)

    If the majority of the 88% were "No shots at all", the government & media would be screaming it from the rooftops. Seems to me that we should be listening to what they are not saying.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Wife and I are part of a substatial (admittedly anecdotal) cohort of unvaxxed who have tested at home and rode out the bug on ivermectin and OTC supplements. We do NOT show up in the statistics.
    We did nap a lot though ...

    'Just a bit East of Paris'd

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  5. Those numbers are absolutely meaningless, actually, less than meaningless, until some sort of honesty is returned to the numbers. Dying with covid is NOT dying of covid, no matter what some bimbo in scrubs insists.

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    Replies
    1. In support of your point: It is interesting that they continue to find more Covid fatalities when "reviewing historical records".

      Are they saying that fully educated doctors are not able to ascertain the cause of death 12 hours after-the-fact but a clerk can several months later?

      One of my pet peeves is that they will "allow" non-vaccinated to work as long as they pay for a nose-swab every week.

      Two points, that is not nearly frequently enough, especially if you throw a 48 hour lag time to report the results

      .AND.

      The vaccinated should also have the same burden since the virus is punching through the vaccine barrier like Mike Tyson punching through cigarette smoke.

      Delete
  6. The Jab was not warp speed, until Jan of 2021...so, Jan 2020 does not fit into the equation..nor does any Vax data from 2020, except for the hidden deaths during trials by Pfizer.

    ReplyDelete

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