|Water stress by country. From the World Resources Institute.|
There is an old saw that goes something like this: "Cadets debate strategy, junior officers debate tactics and generals lose sleep over logistics."
Staying alive is a matter of keeping your logistical tail as compact and as continuous as possible. One way to do this is to have "production" move to secured areas close to the front.
Animals and humans rarely die of thirst during a drought. They die from a famine and disease (and war). Crops do not produce when the rains stop. Crops do not produce as much when the irrigation water is limited or is heavily laden with pollutants and dissolved salts.
|What would any rational person do? They would immigrate even if they were moving to areas with radically different cultures.|
|A decent article from the Russian perspective can be viewed HERE|
Muslims are no more militant than they were 30, 300 or 1300 years ago. What is different is that they are experiencing the unpleasant side of population over-shoot.
The other half the challenge is the other areas are environmentally degraded, erosion is continuing and the climate is "brittle". Sometimes it rains. Some times it does not.
We live in interesting times.