I don't want to make this seem like I am totally invested in this, so let's characterize what I write in this post as "recreational argument".
Furthermore, let me preface my remarks by stating that it is very common for decision-makers to substitute various proxies for the variables that are really of interest. The variables that are of the most interest are rarely presented in their explicit form.
For example, a timber-buyer might make a bid on a stand of timber based the three most marketable species in a stand and use the median diameter at breast-height, the stem-count-per-acre-per-species and typical number-of-logs to the closest 4-feet as the basis for his bid.
So even if a stand have significant amounts of Red Oak and Black Cherry, he might not consider it in his bid if he only had reliable, high-volume markets for White Oak, Black Walnut and Tulip Poplar.
Is it fair? Maybe. Maybe not. But it is efficient. He makes his bid based on the number of board feet he KNOWS he can mill from the standing timber of the species he KNOWS he can sell. In a glut market, he might only break-even selling "minor" species to people making pallets.
Quantifying culture
Culture is a hard thing to measure but we all know that when push-comes-to-shove culture might be the determining factor in whether the typical resident survives or not.
It begs the question "Are there any reasonable proxies for measuring the parts of culture that are most critical to surviving the apocalypse?"
Pestilence
If one looks at historical data for the body-counts of the four horsemen of the apocalypse, one must be impressed by the death-toll for pestilence (and communicable diseases, dysentery, infections and the like) even though those deaths are largely controllable through simple sanitation.
Sanitation is a "culture" thing. So any proxy that stands-in for culture-impacting-survival must comprehend "sanitation". The proxy must "reward" OCD behaviors and penalize "opportunistic" corner-cutting behaviors.
Impulse-control
One other factor that will be HUGE will be if the members of the community will regularly sabotage your efforts to survive. Will they cut down your orchard for firewood because it is close to their wood-stove? Will they butcher your milk-cow for the back-straps?
Let's look at the extremes. On one hand you have sailors in a submarine or soldiers in a forward-operating-base. It has been drilled into them that if anybody fails, they all fail.
The other end of the spectrum is embodied by the person who throws Molotov Cocktails and burns down his apartment complex, the store where he buys his food and his employer's place of business.
In the first group, it would be difficult to fail. In the second group, it would be almost impossible to survive.
Sexually Transmitted Diseases as a Primary sort criterion
STIs are a mandatory reporting event. It is a fairly solid number reported at relatively high degrees of granularity like the county level.
Chlymidia is the most common STI so if you were going to track a single metric, this would be the one.
STIs are a DIRECT measure of the vulnerability of various communities/cultures to communicable diseases.
STIs are an indirect measure of a community's mores and norms with regard to impulse control and resistance to opportunistic "expedient" actions.
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| Chlamydia rate data fro selected Michigan counties |
The spread is very large. Detroit (city) has 1400 cases per 100k population per year while Lapeer County has only 121 cases per 100k per year.
My county, Eaton, is highlighted in yellow. The three counties marked with red lines are adjacent to each other. Genesee county (604/100k) is home to the intersection of I-69 (stop snickering guys) and I-75 while Lapeer (121/100k) and Shiawassee county (161/100k) are bisected by only I-69.
If you didn't know a bunch of submariners who would be willing to take you into their fold and you had absolutely no other information, would you rather bunker-up in Lapeer County or Genessee county? Detroit (1400/100k) or Livingston County (129/100k)
I submit that STI rates per 100k are among the best proxies for a community's resilience in the face of "pestilence" and for as a measure of Impulse-control.
The simplest and easiest method of predicting survivability in any given community is to look at skin color. The white the better. It's not a guarantee but it is a reliable indicator. And it does require access to any special data. It just requires you use your eyes. An ugly truth in these bizarre social times but a truth none the less.
ReplyDeleteI have a reader in a dry, western state who is thinking of relocating. "...use your eyes..." requires that you be on-site. A readily available metric like rates of chlamydia makes it easier to let your fingers do the walking over your keyboard.
DeleteAnd while one might look at racial data, that is collected every ten years while STD rates only have a one-year lag-time. So STD rates will more closely track any impacts from immigrants, for instance.
Interesting yard stick. I looked at the numbers for the entire state and the rate also matches voter politics even where race is not slanted that heavily. Marquette County for instance has very few non-whites but is heavy libtard.---ken
ReplyDeleteThere used to be a commercial where all the tofts, tall foreheads and well-to-do are gathered round the breakfast table. Their manners are impeccable. An ornate tray of preserves is politely asked for and graciously passed around.
ReplyDeleteThen the only fat slob at the table cuts a fart and goes, “Please pass the jelly!” The men sputter in outrage and fury; the women clutch at their pearls, gasp and swoon! The scandal of referring to the preserves as mere “jelly” is scandalous!!!
It was a dumb ad - but I will play the part of the uncultured prune.
I’d judge my survival in a dire situation based on the proximity of black people.
No doubt about it. I agree. But I live in an area of high trust and hardly any crime until the past few years when we have had a large invasion of city people as full time residents, summer residents and tourists. Basically, all white. And our crime rate has gone way up. And the voter turnout has gone to the left significantly. Things are not what they used to be but there is nowhere else to go as it's the same all over and I'm too old to go anyway. ---ken
DeleteI never thought of using that metric, so thanks! That said, my county is at 137 per 100k, so maybe I got lucky.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the ages of the people in the counties with the low STI rates? What are the ages of the people in counties with high rates? Younger people have more sex than older people and will be at higher risk. What are the rates per 100,000 sexual encounters? I don't think I would pick my place based on other people's sex lives.
ReplyDeletesam
You are requesting spurious data.
DeleteYounger people are also less likely to wash their hands when they are in a hurry. The number captures the aggregate risk and de-aggregating it and recombining it really doesn't change that much.
Branch County has lots of young people but they don't come anywhere close to Detroit's rates. Why? Because they have a large Amish population. Culture is the answer.
Exactly. Houghton Co. used to be mostly Finnish Apostolic Lutherans and traditional Catholics and most people didn't lock their houses or take the keys out of their cars. Now I even lock my barns and have security cameras all over the place. Drive around Calumet and it looks like Detroit and Flint but it's mostly all white people. I mostly blame tourism, MTU expanding and low income housing promoted by downstate developers for being the primary causes along with drugs. Calumet is now called Calumeth. ---ken
DeleteAnon @1245am -- as an ED Nurse, I've seen plenty of folks in their 60s & 70s with chlamydia. It is not nearly age lopsided as one might think...
DeleteAnd interesting idea.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't make a relocation decision based solely on this, but it could be a factor that confirmed (or not) a decision based on other factors.
How well does this correlate with rural areas versus urban areas?
Jonathan
In some places it does. In other places it does not.
Deletehttps://image1.slideserve.com/2276812/chlamydia-rates-by-county-united-states-2011-l.jpg is an old image but you can clearly see the Interstate 94 corridor across southern Michigan and if you squint a little bit you can trace I-70 from central Kansas across Missouri, diagonally across Illinois and across Indiana.
It would be interesting to see more recent data represented by 7 "bins" with an even 200cases/100k "bin" size.
The rate is 0.22% in my county (22 cases out of a population of a little over 8000) in 2022. Interesting and intriguing way of investigating a place. What other metrics would you recommend?
ReplyDeleteMedical community and various components thereof.
DeleteAge groups of the population would influence.
I'd look at types of industry. Service and hospitality, farming, industrial, etc expressed as ratio of total population.
Within is transient Vs permanent residency.
That works out to 275 per 100k but for smaller communities it makes sense to average several years out. Otherwise you might have 33 one year and 11 another year and the metric looks like all hell is breaking loose when it is numerical noise.
DeleteAnd while that seems like a lot of variation, remember that cases are found by contact-tracing and if patient one refuses to divulge his/her contacts, they are all likely to show up NEXT year...along with their contacts.
The incidence of certain metrics is indicative of a wide variety of other indices. This because certain metrics are basic to welfare in toto.
ReplyDeleteSuch metrics are so indicative that the incidence of just one is sufficient to answer the underlying question.
I certainly include STI as such a metric.
In biology they call that a "Keystone Species". Those are species that are connected with MANY other species in terms of providing shelter, food or other universal needs.
DeleteIn temperate forests most oak trees are considered a keystone species. In tropical coastal areas, mangroves and coconut trees. In grasslands, clover.
I suspect there is a matrix of useful indicators, and while STI rates may be at, or near, the top of the list, there are several other factors, which considered together, offer a more detailed and data-heavy evaluation of a locale. Most of those other data, however, will be more difficult to obtain accurately than STI data.
ReplyDelete