Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Sword-fighting with Apple Trees and Autumn Olive .AND. Value of college degrees revisited

 

Growing Degree Days b50, Charlotte, Michigan Oct 20. It looks like a bimodal distribution with one cluster around 2800GDDb50 and another cluster around 3200GDDb50

The beautiful but very-dry weather continues.

I picked up the yard. Then I drove out to The Property and spent two hours cutting-and-dragging brush and pruning apple trees.

In the last few years, my skin lost much of its elasticity and became markedly more fragile. Pruning the trees was like a sword-fight with worthy opponents. I prevailed in delimbing my opponents but they also drew their fair share of blood. My daily 40mg of aspirin meant that I ended up looking like a Halloween decoration by the time I get home.

Value of college degrees revisited

 

Frequent commenter Dan wrote "The impending economic collapse is going to make most of this moot. Even for degrees that most people would consider "useful"."

It isn't hard to imagine those kinds of scenarios.

I recently listened to a woman explain her "plan" to create a super-low maintenance, self-sustaining food production space. The woman has a Master's degree in Biology.

Looking at her plan, I had a few observations.

"You have a lot of open spaces between the young, food-producing trees*. Have you considered planting white-clover and turnips to scavenge nutrients, fix nitrogen and add organic matter to the soil?" I asked.

Her response was that white-clover was a HORRIBLE plant! She had talked to an "expert" and was told that it was almost impossible to get rid of.

How does beat-up, dumb, old-Joe explain to that mindset that white-clover is persistent because it makes its own fertilizer and if you mow it, it shares the nitrogen with its neighbors? How do you explain that SOMETHING will fill that niche and you can fill it with "positives" like clover and turnips or something negative will jump into that space and rip it away from your control?

I did mention the weed issue and she informed me that she had already spent over $1000 on dyed mulch "...because it looks nice...".

Well, alrighty. She spent +$1000 on mulch when $15 of seeds could have done the same thing. The mulch is dyed and will be a recurring expense. It is an outside input which is not "self-sustaining" and that cost will be incurred into perpetuity. The clover and the turnips can be managed at zero cost to regenerate until they get shaded out with the clover fixing nitrogen and the turnips producing edible greens, roots and potentially even oil from the seeds.

She has a Master's degree in Biology and is oblivious to the implications of managing nutrient cycling to create "...self-sustaining food production systems...".

I am not slagging the woman. I am skewering the system that generates such narrowly defined credentials.

If you look at society as a house-of-cards then those credentials have value near the top of the house. Those jobs can only exist in very-low entropy, very-low chaos environments. 

Emergency Room type jobs increase in high entropy environments. More people get stabbed and have accidents. ER people never know what the next patient will require and they have to be very flexible and sometimes have to adjust behaviors instantaneously. Those kinds of land-on-your-feet "gigs" abound in high entropy environments.

Jobs for people who can run machines that sort SSR biomarkers become extinct in high entropy environments**. Those skills don't transfer to a lot of other environments. I have a neighbor who works in a lab that creates genetic footprints for Holstein cows to minimize in-breeding depression. That is a real-deal with AI. BUT, she had never "handled" cows in her life***. That is, she had never moved them from one paddock to another or filled a cow's food bunker or water tank.

I hate to get political, but Trump seems to thrive in high-chaos environments where he must think-on-his-feet. Harris does not exhibit that same weeble-wobble resilience and her events are much more highly choreographed.

* 40 foot spacing between some of the trees! That is a lot of sunlight falling on the ground and not making food.

** The entire concept of "job" is historically recent and is linked to the need to prove future income-flow when applying for credit. Before the Ford Model T, working side-gigs to supplement farm life was the norm. Virtually the only "jobs" were on the railroad. Even steel mills and the people building railroads were day-labor gigs.

*** I was able to remedy that shortcoming.

12 comments:

  1. Interesting observations. Is now the best time to prune? Woody

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    Replies
    1. It depends on where you live.

      In my location, most of the leaves are off the trees and the weather is pleasant. It has been so dry that the ground is hard, so planting stuff is hard work. I adjusted by shifting to pruning.

      Delete
  2. Hang on, Joe. When she says “biology” you have to ask which branch of the biological sciences. Marine? Microbiology? Agriculture is a science unto itself and there are many legit programs. Soils are a sub branch and it too can take up an entire career of specialization.

    I had a brother in law that drove me bonkers. He was an expert on climate change and environMINTal science…because he had a Mickey Mouse degree in education. His scientific acumen was limited to what he read in pop culture rags. He couldn’t even do outhouse statistics…but his parents thought he knew everything because he had a degree. He thought he knew everything too…
    😂👍

    Unfortunately this kind of crap is invoking a very dangerous anti-intellectual backlash. There ARE experts out there but they get drowned out by the morons, pikers and poseurs like my brother in law who posed as a climate science expert. We saw this up here in Canada during the Covid fiasco - the former head of the Royal Canadian College Of Physicians spoke publicly and ridiculed the hysteria and tried to explain basic microbiology to people but the “experts” wouldn’t listen to him. Such experts included people like Whoopi Goldberg, Joe Biden, Orca Winfrey and all your favourite Hollywood stars and daytime tv talk show hosts.

    There ARE experts in soils and ag and they ARE worth listening to.

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    Replies
    1. Her thesis was replicating the work of a Ph.D that mapped the DNA of a common weed.

      Delete
    2. Another aspect to this is that the need for bonafide experts is also being slowly eliminated. In the past you could make a comfortable living as a soils expert. You’d go out to the customers, test their soils, and make recommendations. Nowadays - Joe can test his own soil and water and even air with “chemistry in a bag” kits. He buys a package that contains the indicators and reagents, detailed instructions on how to mix them and interpret the results. No need for expensive lab titrations, chromatography and other analytics… Joe can do it right in the field. All he needs to do is follow the instructions on the kit, mix the chemicals…and he becomes his own expert. The same principle is working in petroleum, environmental and medical science. Automated machines are replacing lab techs. Gawd only knows what AI is going to do to the professions and the job markets.

      Delete
  3. We have Autumn olive planted in the mine land areas here. I pick the ripe berries every year. They are small, but I just strip them off the stems. Tart, high in lycopene and even the seeds are edible if you choose to eat them. I swear I have never witnessed another person picking them.

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  4. It's a fractal of all the problems we're facing. 6 years of education, doesn't know shit. Unfortunately this crowd has been told their entire lives, they're smart, and everyone else is stupid. Who could have predicted fireworks?
    When things get rough and the real world of chemistry and law of thermodynamics (yet to be violated!) comes into contact with the fantasy they've lived, there will be death. Maybe that's a good thing, in the Darwin screed of things?

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  5. Hunting season rush is full bore, but finally had some time to sit down and read a few things. I think the ROI chart from yesterday's post (and discussed here somewhat) is good, but there's a confounding issues that has to be considered.

    Specifically: Years from HS to Employment and then years from Employment to Full Employment. The 4 huge bubbles are all fields you can find Employment (possibly even Full Employment) within 4 years of HS. This is weird to think about, but Math undergraduate people (usually with coding hobbies or portfolios) are being snapped up by FAANG and FAANG-aspiring companies posthaste. Plus, of course, they are vacuuming up Comp Sci/Eng (+ related fields) kids.

    You grind out 4-5 years of hard college and they'll hire you with a real big kid salary and raises straight out of college, maybe 1 internship required.

    Business/Physics and a lot of other degrees either required post-4 year degree entry-level grind (for people without fancy colleges) or additional study which tanks the ROI b/c you lose out on prime income generating years. If you're lucky you make lower middle class wages as a grad student/entry level person, but many don't and need family support or have to really scrimp and save.

    Hard degrees are a filter that lets employers know there's decent odds you have a functional brain and can work hard. To get your full employment big kid job you've got to prove this is true, either by hard degree + internship(s) or starting at the bottom of a ladder and grinding long and hard.

    I think that's the key thing for kids in low ROI/negative ROI fields need to be told: You're gonna have to grind for years and years just to get to the "real" jobs. The pay may (eventually) be good, but you're giving up 10-20 years of control over location and working conditions. You're gonna have to be prepared for cross-country moves (hope your spouse/significant other is flexible!), for years of working night shifts or with the worst clients to make your bones.

    Grinding 4 years of hard college (in comfortable dorms surrounded by other hardworking smart kids with someone else cooking for you, doing your sheets and in a safe environment with built in weekend entertainment) is a lot easier.

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  6. My best buddy in high school got a degree in Natural Resources. His first full-time job with benefits was the year he turned 37.

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  7. Eye ain't no expurt er nuthin' BUT...
    Even I know that the clover will invite bees! Bees will pollinate the trees and vegetation thereby enhancing the odds that viable produce will come forth from all that "college value"-added planning and planting AND if they had any brains, they would realize that the by-product of bees is sweet, sweet honey!!!
    But hay, eye em only a hi-skool graduate, so what do eye no!
    irontomflint

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    Replies
    1. There is a little bit of backstory I left out.

      The Master's person consulted an "expert" in creating ecosystems who rendered the opinion "white clover is a disaster".

      The tiny, itty-bitty detail that she didn't catch was that the expert in creating ecosystems was really an expert in REcreating ecosystems. The person was the GOTO person if you wanted to recreate a pre-settlement replica of a tall-grass prairie, for instance. White clover was brought over by the Europeans so it was like garlic to a vampire to the REcreator.

      As a hi-skool graduate I bet you can frame a building, roof and wire it. I bet you can maintain a fence, change spark-plugs, pull weeds and shoot rabbits. I bet you have run a chainsaw and an ax during your life. I bet you have carried heavy things and unplugged stopped plumbing. You may have done your own taxes and paid monthly bills with checks sent through the mail.

      Heinlein once wrote "Specialization is for insects."

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  8. ERJ, the current higher educational system encourages specialization to the nth degree: the higher up the go, the more specialized you have to become. And if you move into the world of Ph.Ds it becomes even more pronounced because of the nature of the system: one has to do novel research on a heretofore unresearched issue or a reconsideration of currently existing research. It tends to create narrowly focused experts that have general degree areas that imply a reach of knowledge that is not there; the classic example of this would the the M.D. giving advice on medical matters when their specialty is podiatry. At some point they had the same classes but then the branched off in a direction that may not make general diagnosis a great idea.

    That said, I will also note the other "side" (The Right, Conservatives, fill in the blank) often suffer from their own level of the anti-intellectualism Glen points to above. I have read of any number of people that reject opinions and facts based not on an individual's education or experience but because they do not agree with them.

    We have - both sides of society - become a group that very much only believe and support the facts that support our opinions. The loss of the idea of an Objective Truth has had a very deep impact.

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