Ukraine is making noises like they will stop trans-shipment of Russian petro products through the country. Color me surprised! They are at war and Ukraine was still doing it? Although, at another level, Ukraine probably had agreements with European countries (other than Russia) to deliver.
The numbers are 300,000 barrels a day of oil and a billion cubic meters of natural gas a day.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military is weighing their options with regard to Iran. The highest value targets are
- Politicians
- Military infrastructure; human, manufacturing and weapons
- Nuclear enrichment infrastructure
- Petroleum based export infrastructure
Of those potential targets, only the oil export infrastructure is not moving and/or is totally in the open. Taking out the two electrical generation plants in Khuzestan and one in Hormozgan province would take three, launch-from-beyond-the-horizon cruise-missiles and would pretty much stop Iranian exports until the transformer-farms were replaced. Three-stinking-missiles. Transformers don't like shrapnel when they are under-load.
And it is an attack that could be repeated any day of the week.
Iran is currently exporting (to the world) about four times as much oil as Russia is shipping through Ukraine.
Other petroleum "based" exports include value-added products like plastic resins used by injection molders and to make fibers and paint.
Iran has a history of using proxies like the Houthi to cripple shipping from other countries in retaliation. It seems likely that one way this could play-out would be for Iran to arm pirates to attack oil tankers and LG tankers that are exiting the Persian Gulf and appear to be bound for the West (in contrast to the Orient).
Natural Gas storage
Europe has the ability to store natural gas by pumping it into geological formations. Their total storage capacity is approximately 2 months worth of average winter-time consumption.
We certainly live in interesting times!
Folks need to get really comfortable with the idea of an electrical grid that is not what it is today.
ReplyDeleteMakes having even a small solar array for grid down emergencies worth something.
ReplyDeleteBetter a few hundred watts and ability to keep fridge and led lights than to sit in the dark smelling the rotting food.
I'm so with you on that one... There's a local guy selling stuff out of a warehouse cash-n-carry, it's DC voltage, I know I can figger it out... But yeah, imagine sitting there with absolutely nothing and asking yourself why DIDN'T you spend the 500 bucks and just throw the panels in the shed? Heck, even just buying that system for $150 @ Harbor Freight...
DeleteAustria has apparently now been able to source sufficient gas from other suppliers that we will be able to replace all the Russian gas if it stops. Add salt to taste.
ReplyDeleteknee deep bullshit ^
DeleteI heard Trump saying the Uke debacle is over when he becomes president, and that he’ll stop it in 24 hours with a phone call. I think he may be exaggerating a bit but it is possible from a practical perspective. From a political perspective… there’s a lot of momentum and capital in that gong show…
ReplyDelete"Hey coke head, the money's done, figure your own shit out."
DeleteERJ, I believe that in fact there were previous agreements in place to continue to tranship the fuel - and given the fact that they are largely dependent on Western European support, they had some interests in keeping the line open.
ReplyDeleteI can very easily see the Middle East effectively shut down for oil transmission for some period of time.