Monday, May 21, 2018

Estimating the Net Present Value of Obamacare costs, ages 25-through-65

How much would one have to invest at a guaranteed 3% interest rate to pay for 40 years of Obamacare?

Assumptions:
  • Starting age 25  (Current median cost of $478 per month)
  • Ending age 65
  • Non-smoker
  • Single
  • "Silver plan"
  • 10% premium growth
  • Deductible growth varied from zero-to-10% (max deductible of $6900 per year for 2018)
Assuming zero deductible growth and $3000 per year actual deductible (mid range), the Net Present Value of the resulting cash-flow is $1.2 million, US.

Assuming 10% deductible growth and a starting deductible (actual) of $3000 the Net Present Value of the resulting cash-flow is $1.7 million, US.

It gives one pause to think that a three year military hitch might be offering $600,000 a year in benefits IF the military person qualifies for VA benefits afterward and can avoid entanglement in Obamacare.

Of course, healthcare costs cannot grow at 10% per year, three times faster than the general economy, for forty years.

And I did not factor in any costs associated with VA services (like travel) because I am not smart enough to come up with reasonable estimates.

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