Sunday, February 21, 2016

Donald and Hillary and Willow trees

Original image from HERE
This analysis of Twitter feeds came out last June.  It rated the various candidates from most liberal to most conservative.  The vertical blue line shows Hillary Clinton.  The vertical red line shows Donald Trump.  At this point, they are the front runners for their respective parties.


There are two ways one can fail when analyzing data.

One can fail to extract the information that is inherently in the data.  An example would be when an investor fails to get out from beneath the falling piano when every indicator suggests the market will tank.

The other failure is to draw too many conclusions from the data.  An example is when an analyst uses the same data to test multiple hypothesis.  Each hypothesis that is tested increases the odds that one of them will pass "by accident or coincidence".  An example can be found HERE with regard to Trump.

My operative hypothesis is that Trump is a showman who is attuned to his audience and is masterful at playing it.  I am not sure that qualifies him for President.

Image from HERE.  On a practical note, willow trees should never be planted upwind of ponds.  The leaves deplete the oxygen in the water and cause winter kill. 

Trump appears to be a mirror image of the likely Democratic contender.  The only difference is that he is pandering to a different audience.  Ideologically I think they are both as steady as willow trees in a windstorm.

My brother

One of my brothers is a Progressive.  He is aghast at the prospect of a Trump Presidency.  He hopes that Trump refuses the nomination and hoots on the delegates:
"Punked you!  Stupid baztards.  Whadda bunch of chumps."

I give that a 0.1% chance of happening.  But if it does, remember, you heard it here first.

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