Too soon

Nathan Rothchild is credited with saying "Buy when the blood is running in the streets." It is one of sayings on the lips of everybody on Wall Street nowdays.

He is also credited with having his own intelligence system which moved information much faster than official information systems. That provided him with an incredible advantage in trading currency and shares of stock.

If you knew Outer Elbonia had ceased to exist before anybody else, you could sell Outer Elbonian bonds at any price and still make a profit. You could sell Outer Elbonian bonds you did not even have because you could knew you could pick them up for the price of scrap-paper once the fall of Outer Elbonia became general knowledge.

Investors looking at the Russian-Ukrainian situation must be thinking "Is it time to buy, yet?"

Blood is running in the streets.

The future of Ukraine is still in the balance. Sure, buy Ukrainian assets or bonds if you feel an emotional need to support them. But unless you have very deep information about the outcome don't fool yourself into thinking it is a wise investment.

If Russia prevails and reabsorbs Ukraine then assets denominated in Hryvnia will be worth very little or nothing.

One dollar could buy a lot of rubles if you could find a place to transact the swap

The price of assets in Russia are also depressed. The risk of purchasing Russian assets is that the government may force you to divest them. That would cause a glut on the market if everybody must divest at the same time.

Absent any markets where an orderly purchase of Russian or Ukrainian assets with dollars can be made, another play is to find another market that is depressed but still functioning. An example of this would be to purchase mutual funds that focus on Emerging Markets or Pacific Rim or some other group of investments that moves out-of-phase with US equities and the value of the US dollar.

This is the route I am contemplating.

I swapped nearly all of my International investments for US Equities and fixed-income in 2015. It was a lucky move. I am feeling a nudge to move back into International Equities primarily as a hedge against Inflation diminishing the value of the USD.

My gut tells me it is too soon to re-enter those markets but I am watching. There are still too many imponderables roaming just outside the light thrown by the campfire.

• Did Zelenskyy refuse evacuation because he knew he would be Epsteined based on what he knew about bio-weapon labs and corruption? That information, if true, could topple multiple western governments.
  
• Will Russia attack NATO convoys bringing weapons into Ukraine?
• Will the fields of Ukraine be planted this spring?
• Will Ukraine mount attacks inside of Mother Russia disabling infrastructure needed to keep the wheels of Europe moving?
• Will Com-China attack Taiwan?
• Will the mid-East sprout fireballs and mushroom clouds?

It is too soon.

Another saying on Wall Street is "Never try to catch a falling knife". The knife is still falling.