Friday, March 11, 2022

Russian losses in Ukraine

For frame of reference, the Soviet Union had about 8.8 million killed-in-action over the four years from June 22, 1941 until April 30, 1945. That is an average of 5500 soldiers and sailors killed every day of the conflict.

There have currently been about two weeks of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. In those fifteen days, it has been reported that approximately 6000 Russian soldiers have been killed.

You can make all of the arguments you want about the smaller population of Russia vs. USSR, the "quality" of the officers who have been killed and the loss of materials but from a loss-of-manpower standpoint, the total Russian KIA to-date would not even count as a particularly bloody day in WWII.

18 comments:

  1. The number of soldiers involved here are tiny compared to WWII battles.

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  2. That number is about double what Russian claims so the real number is likely somewhere in the middle, all in all not a huge number of losses.

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  3. The problem is at least some of them are conscripts, which is against the law of the land in Russia. THAT has Putin in trouble at home.

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  4. But were the losses gender inclusive ?

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  5. Do the numbers for both conflicts as a daily loss percentage of the total number of soldiers in the Russian army. The current army is tiny compared to the size of their WWII army. And they aren't fighting the Wehrmacht....an army that by any standards was one of the best to ever take be fielded since the Romans. Kind of an apples to oranges comparison.

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  6. Until you realize that the Russian losses you're comparing it to were while they under attack by a paltry 150 divisions of the German Wermacht, including 19 panzer divisions.

    But yeah, compared to a world war, these losses are small potatoes. It's not even an afternoon's casualties in the US Civil War, or one good trench charge at Ypres.

    But in a Russian Army that doesn't number even 5% of the force mustered for WWII, those losses are yuuuuuge.

    If an American unit suffered 10% KIA and 25% casualties in 2 weeks any time since 1960, for anything less than an exchange of nuclear weapons, the commander would have been court-martialed.

    For the Russians to have suffered that much against essentially a ragamuffin militia with Javelins and Stingers underlines how hopelessly inept they are at pretty much everything.

    Putin's pulled his pants down for the rest of the world, and the Ukrainians are spanking him on the exposed cheeks with a board.

    To put this in better perspective, to get to 6K KIA in 14 days, the Russians are suffering twice the number of US KIAs on the worst day the US ever had in Vietnam, (246)* and they've been having that double-bad day every single day they've been there for two weeks straight.

    You better believe this is some serious crap.




    *https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_in_the_Vietnam_War
    246 US KIA the day after Tet '68 - 246.
    Russian daily losses in Ukraine, with an army 1/2 the size of the US in Vietnam: 428 KIA/day.

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  7. Joe, I am curious where you saw that 6000 Russian KIA figure reported.

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    1. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-death-toll-invasion/

      I did a search. The value of 6k was reported in a couple of places.

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    2. Well trusted source CBS. The fisrt casualty of war is the truth.

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    3. @Anon 7:55
      "The grapes were probably sour anyways..."
      Provide a better source, if you can.
      Gainsaying is simply an anemometer mounted on one's keyboard.

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  8. RUS KIA could be double what cited, UKR still loses.
    Quick strike didn't work, now basic soviet tactics
    RUS warfighting has elegance of a thrown brick but will win on numbers
    RUS can't occupy and hold most territory long term so their best 'win' is negotiated settlement
    I still think this wraps w/i two weeks
    internal, negotiations, loss of UKR territory
    external, Moscow regime change, military mutiny
    Am furious at our political critters and state department wonks gleefully and cluelessly sanctioning everything
    Our gov't (and many others) kneejerking and not considering second and third order outcomes of actions

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  9. Losing large numbers of men in battles of attrition has never seemed to trouble the Russians greatly. You write Russia off at your peril. Couple that with the absolute corruption that is Ukraine and my money is on Russia.

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    1. I am tired of hearing that Ukraine is corrupt. Like ours isn't? Please point out a US Senator who served three terms and isn't much wealthier than he was when he came to Washington. (While you're at it, explain how "Joe from Scranton" accumulated five houses, including a large beachfront home with his salary as a senator and then VP.) "Politicians go to Washington to do good, and they stay to do well."

      Ukraine may be a corrupt country, but that is something for Ukrainians to deal with, and especially not for one of the most corrupt countries on the planet to fix.

      They fight well, as Ivan is finding out. I wonder just how many POS couch potatoes in this country would be willing to fight if this country was ever invaded. "Red Dawn" was fiction, not a documentary. Today, more young people play "Call of Duty" than answer it.

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    2. So now, Stuart, you've saddled yourself with explaining how "corrupt" Ukrainians are sending "virtuous" Russians home in pine boxes at a rate 4.6 time higher than the loss rate when Mother Russia was fighting with the mightiest fighting force in the world from 1939-1943.

      Well-played, sir.

      The world hasn't seen a fighting force comparable to the Russians in Ukraine since North Korea drove the US Army into the Pusan Perimeter in July 1950. Unless you want to count the Egyptian and Syrian armies in late 1973, or the Argentinian Army in June of '82.

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  10. Note to readers:

    Please remain civil when responding to comments made by other readers.

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  11. Not an apples to apples comparison for sure, but at the time Baghdad fell in Iraq, there were approx. 130,000 U.S. troops there. Over the course of 9 years, around 5,000 of our troops were killed, with the largest number of 904 killed in 2007.
    Make of those numbers what you will.

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  12. Russian losses are +/- 2500. US media reports of 6000 are akin to people dying in car accidents reported as covid deaths. The number of Ukrainian deaths are probably comparable but that number will not be available until the bulk of their army which is surrounded in the east is eliminated.

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  13. I remember in 2nd grade reading about american revolution battles in the encyclopedia, thinking the british had more casualties than us so we must have won. How stupid of me. Us americans had no idea our casualties and the british being british always could account for their units. Fast forward to vietnam and afganistan. Hmmm. Body counts only matter when the press industrial complex is counting. The truth is we have no idea what is going on and won't know for quite a while.

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