Thursday, September 19, 2024

Martial Law: Not "IF", but when, where and why

With the escalating passions over the up-coming elections, both sides are envisioning circumstances where "the other side" would be likely to declare Martial Law.

Examples:

The progressives envision Trump starting to deport illegal aliens and the aliens resist, killing ICE deputies. Trump declares Martial Law on a city-by-city basis and the hot-spots get cleared out.

The conservatives envision Harris going house-to-house confiscating weapons and the owners of the weapons resist....

What both of these scenarios share is that the declarations will be local and will be shifting. There are not enough resources to administer and enforce Martial Law nationwide.

How to prepare?

Here is a fairly comprehensive but lopsided article. In my opinion, vigorously advocating for "your rights" will make you a lightning rod. Another issue is that their Gold-Standard news sources lean left.

Lock-downs and curfews are likely. Communication black-outs are almost a certainty.

Note to self: Work on alternative comms plan including nodes outside of likely Martial Law foot-prints. That plan MIGHT be as simple as riding a bicycle ten miles in a given direction with an SD card in my shoe.

26 comments:

  1. One notion that was floated around on a site I used to frequent was that when those hard times come, a weekly meeting at the local public library will serve as a 'node'. For residents outside the city, it will be a journey, but worth it for info and trade.
    Agree about the comm's, a set of Baeofang radio's only costs 30 bucks. I'd like to find an old HAM setup just to have on hand.
    The internet will go down, and/or be heavily filtered. They won't just shut down one avenue of communication, but all of them. Additionally w/ the proliferation of computers and AI, false nodes will be a real problem.
    Agree w/ the premise they'll isolate and shut-down certain area's first. Can't fight the whole country at once. There will be a flashpoint city that it can start in and just keep rolling it outwards. At the edge of Appalachia, like ohio or PA?
    The end of free-shit I think will be the flag going up. They've got EBT cards now, and are still killing pets and ducks for food and sport... when the EBT card stops working, whadya think is gonna happen? That'll be the 'weapons free' sign, and "the Purge" will begin. Fuck deporting them, we need fertilizer.

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    1. Agree on the Baeofang radios - good for several miles distance and capable of listening in / jumping on the HAM radio network. They DO require some programming / setup to do so.

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    2. If you want to start to learn how to use handhelds and similar radios, see "The Guerilla's Guide to the Baofeng Radio" and "The Guerilla's Guide to Signal's Intelligence" both by NC Scout. You can get them from Amazon or buy them from the Brushbeater store. (I have no financial interest or benefit in either, but I have known the author for over 10 years) These books are written for people without significant technical background, and compile some of the information you'd get if you attended his RTO series of classes.

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  2. I take issue w/ the evacuation compliance instructions offered in the link. I very much think they will try to corral The People into large cities where they are easier to control, w/ some bogus disease. It's not like it's been used in movies and real life before!
    One common thread among preppers is the gov. will herd the people into the cities en masse, thereby controlling food and medicine, forcing citizens to take digital ID (mark of the beast). Can't get in unless you're vaxxxed, and anyone who resists will be labeled a terrorist who is putting YOUR health at risk by not complying with the shot mandates... where have I heard THAT trope before?
    When the box cars come, do not get in them.

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    1. “When the box cars come, do not get in them.”

      - Go out on your feet or on your knees!

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5uASQgLwaIs&pp=ygUJY29yYiBsdW5k

      !

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  3. Not the first time Martial Law has occurred.

    Trusted friends and trusted family members have historically been the security of families in troubled times.

    Keeping your head low helps. Those loudmouthed bumper stickers have changed the mind of who lately?

    Wandering into the local coffee house and arguing with the pro-this or that folks changed how many minds lately?

    With internet keywords the same on the internet.

    BTW "Anonymous" and Nome de Guerre ISN'T. Your ISP even with a VPN is just a matter of how much interest and computer power they deploy.

    Just a target on your families back.

    Economic collapse and social unrest create Real World (tm) troubles for you and me.

    Do you have a plan B if a hothead with a flaming bottle of "mostly Peaceful" burns your home down? A lot of folks will have almost nothing after that event.

    Would kind of force you into a "Safety Camp" eh? That's part of the German Propaganda for the Box Car trips back then.

    Mike and the Mechanics "Silent Running" has some real Spanish Civil War type ideas in it.

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  4. Those phone bombs in the Middle East have me wondering if the TSA will begin searching them before boarding an airplane. They may become an item no longer allowed on passenger aircraft.

    I definitely agree with avoiding becoming a nail in need of a hammer. Arguing with others over opinion is not a good way to avoid attention.

    I wore my hair longer than permissible my senior year in high school. When principal stopped me to mention this, I smiled and told him I would cut it - no arguments from me. Then forget to do this. If I had raised a stink, he would have remembered me and next time have possible consequences.

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    1. TSA already inspects cell phones, and it would be the death knell for business travel if smartphones were prohibited on passenger flights.

      There was likely nothing for a "search" to find -- early information suggests there was nothing observably "wrong" with the pagers, the explosive substance was integrated into the battery itself and the trigger was hidden deep in the code, not something that's going to be discovered in a 5-minute TSA inspection.

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  5. old style CB also makes for good comms.

    Fairly long ish range and not that expensive.

    Trackable though.

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    1. Any electro-magnetic transmission is trackable.

      bin-Laden used couriers to physically transport thumb-drives from the compound and then upload from random, distant terminals.

      That worked for a very long time and he was a very, very high value target for "Intelligence".

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  6. A question, how far distance wise into a Martial law would you transport your self if an ally radioed for help?

    Are you willing to reduce the security of your family to defend others?

    All electronic communications can be located if needed. Is broadcasting an asset or a liability?

    Recent targeting by drones in Ukraine on cellphone users comes to mind. Same with CB and so on.

    Police are already using drones in cities for "crime ".

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    1. Having SigInt capability (equipment and skills) will help you learn what the local drone control frequencies are, will let you know when drones are active, and will help you avoid being targeted. Very few drones in Ukraine are autonomous, and almost all of them, regardless of size, download their 'take' to a control/reception point. These control station signals can be intercepted, and once the control frequencies are known, can be located.

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    2. While interesting Historian, I asked if having BROADCASTING an asset or a liability.

      You know for the drones and other RDF of your broadcasting locations. Getting their attention isn't a good thing as plenty of Ukranian and Russian soldiers have found out.

      Control stations for drones in Ukraine are mostly backpack or vehicle located. Only the American Run Reapers and Global Hawks run on stationary control transmitters (or P-8 Poseidon Aircraft).

      So, I'm unclear how "Locating" the mobile control transmitters is useful. I'm not set up for Seal Team 6 OPs around my area.

      Nor do I suspect the amount of advanced warning at the flying speed of most drones heading INTO an attack-surveillance area.

      I know the Russians monitor the EM battlefield pretty seriously, helps in alerting anti-drone defenses like Pantsir to be ready for visitors.

      In my thoughts Broadcasting during a military situation is a lot like being the guy with a generator running loudly and having lights when all your hungry neighbors don't.

      I welcome ideas about that. Seems we might get the chance to find out pretty soon.

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    3. Transmitting RF always poses a risk of interception and DF. What you want to do is reduce and manage the risk.

      Broadcasting is a subset of transmitting; this generally means long continuous transmissions. And yes, these will make you a target. If you transmit using your voice, you have given OpFor your voiceprint, still worse in a non-permissive scenario.

      Best practice is to use different frequencies for short digital transmissions, a few seconds of transmit time. Line Of Sight transmissions on UHF can be done with high gain directional antennas to and from coordinated locations, drastically reducing probability of intercept.

      For comms not in LOS, .mil uses Satcomm. Those not having satellite capability would use MF and Lower HF vertical skywave or NVIS for comms outside LOS. These transmissions are more difficult to DF, especially when kept short.

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  7. ERJ, I think such things would have to be very local. I do not know that the federal government would have the ability to call up the numbers of troops they would need to perform a nation-wide sort of thing without drawing down from foreign stations, which itself creates its own issues.

    The other thing is that things would rapidly get out of hand. For all the dreams of strict government control, there will be a lot of people trying to take advantage of the situation - with what would likely be controls on times out and business hours and activities (The Plague on Steroids), there will "others" out trying to take advantage of the situation, plus the inevitable protests (like what we have seen in the recent past) that at least have the potential to turn violent. Local law enforcement will probably at some point either go home (to cover their own lives and families) or simply be redeployed to the Core (Our Political And Social Betters - OPASB - do not enjoy such spectacles on their doorsteps, only far away). And probably for either side the Federal or State forces, seen by one side or other (depending on who is in power) will rapidly lose their luster as "protectors of the peace" the longer it goes on and the more people associate "them" with the inconveniences and issues in their daily lives.

    To at least one point above, given those circumstances the best thing is to simply blend in with everyone else. Be completely unremarkable. Express no opinions. Discuss nothing outside of the situation at hand - no hobbies, no "what I have at home".

    In such situations, the OPASB is looking for reasons to take action against whom they perceive to be the opposition. Do not give them that reason.

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    1. While we are all on lists, try to be on lists that are big and be far down then.
      Remember, the nail that sticks up gets hammered.

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  8. It is more than likely that GPS will either be shut off to ordinary users, or the error option will be large enough to no longer be useful. Having and knowing how to use maps for your likely AO will be helpful.
    I can see scenarios where there are no physical limits, just electronic restrictions that make normal travel and communication difficult. Remember that the people likely to implement this plan will tend to focus on what they are familiar with.
    Jonathan
    Jonathan

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    1. Land Nav is absolutely an essential skill- you need to have paper maps and know how to use them and a compass. FYI- Your cell phone and your modern vehicle both track your location 24-7 even when they are 'off'.
      Faraday bags for the cell and unplugging the tracking module in your vehicle are a good start.

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  9. Alternate comms and signal intelligence capability are indeed essential for coordinated effective resistance. While the needed equipment can currently be bought OTS, the skills are NOT "grab and go" - knowing what to get and how to use comm equipment takes training, skill and experience, especially if you intend to be operating in what will become very much a non-permissive environment.

    During WW2, the British, using vacuum tube radios and oscilloscopes, were able to locate German U-Boats making brief (<20 second) transmissions within a few miles. Around a quarter to a third of all U-Boats sunk in that war were lost as a result of the British HFDF efforts- many more were lost as a result of British breaking German encryption. Signal Intelligence was largely responsible for the Allies winning the Battle of the Atlantic.

    Modern technology is far more advanced; COTS equipment available for anyone to purchase can get a Line of Position in just a few seconds for LOS comms on upper HF, VHF and UHF frequencies. As noted above, you do not want to be the nail that sticks up.

    You need to know how to communicate with others while minimizing your risks in so doing, AND how to know when others in your area are communicating, where they are located, and what their intentions are if possible.

    Every radio transmission of any type, as well as personal electronics, can be a beacon giving your location away, and make you a target for those of evil intent.

    Jeff Cooper famously said "Owning a handgun doesn't make you armed any more than owning a guitar makes you a musician." The same is true of comms.

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    1. Historian,

      Thank you for the comment. It's my understanding that no radio, from a simple CB up to a HAM, can be detected unless you transmit. So perhaps a receiver only, with the mic unplugged, would be called for if one needed ultra stealth. You can get loads of info just by listening.

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    2. I'd be careful about that assumption. Even a listen only mode can be "chirped" by surveillance drones.

      I watched that being done in Afghanistan with a Reaper strike following.

      I'm a combat medic, not an RDF person. I can run a radio pretty well but watching the RDF done crew laughing as they "chirped" a non-broadcasting radio was wierd.

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    3. Incomplete reply sorry.

      Also, that "Chirp" I've seen done in our White Mountain Rescue to get a "Dead Battery" Cellphone to chirp for location.

      So local Search and Rescue CAN get that drone capability from time to time weather permitting.

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    4. receivers with an IF, which is many, can be DFed on one or more of the IF. And yes, you can 'ping' a cell that is supposedly turned off, or has a dead battery. Having a cell that can be turned off, the battery removed, and placed in a Faraday bag(s) is better. 40dB of isolation is marginal, but having the bag inside another or in an ammo can gives 60-80 dB, and unless you are right next to a tower, is usually adequate.

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    5. That pretty much echoes what Silicon Graybeard wrote many years ago.

      What the heck, an antenna is tuned to specific frequencies and they can be pinged even if they are not hooked up to transmitters.

      Dogs chase shady characters who break into a run. Don't look shady. Don't start running.

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  10. What ERJ is referring to in the last sentence of the original post is very similar to the Soviet era practice of 'Samizdat' or self publishing. Radio comms, as noted above, come with a certain amount of risk. So do the sorts of physically passed information ERJ is referring to: non-encrypted information on a stored USB stick or SD card, if found, would be at risk. Encryption helps- PGP is OK, but there is one encryption method that has not, to my knowledge, ever been broken and that is the One Time Pad. The problem, of course, is that if you are caught with an encrypted message, you are likely to be 'encouraged' to provide the key, or the name of the person who has it, and unless you die first you are highly likely to eventually comply.

    In addition to physical message delivery, some other non-radio, not FTF, comm methods are:
    -Heliograph;
    -field phones;
    -Semaphore;
    -Signal flags;
    -Dead drops.

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