Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Playing a riff on Wilder

Logistics and Geography
The Left can be resupplied via air and ship.  “Emergency” supplies would head into coastal cities and sustain them forever...   -Source
There is much discussion on the internet about how Civil War II would play out.

At first blush the observation that is quoted at the start of the post seems true.

I think it breaks down when you get to the nuts-and-bolts of how one might actually execute the resupply.

How much ocean shipping is NOT intermodal shipping or tanker? How many ships exist world-wide that can access ports that are not maintained and not intermodal. Not much tonnage, I should think.

Things get bleak north of New York City from a shipping standpoint.

Are they going to ship refined petroleum products? I am doubtful that the East Coast has much refining capacity. It smells dirty.

Air shipping
Great for high value products like roses and salmon. Not so great for wheat.

I want to see the numbers. Could enough food be air shipped to support Chicago? How about Pittsburgh or Atlanta or Charlotte?

That completely ignores the vulnerabilities of the air craft themselves. Military aviation is hardened against ground fire and gasoline is still costs $400 a gallon to deliver to the tip of the spear. 

Will enough pilots be found to fly loaves of bread and chicken nuggets into Pittsburgh when they start finding 7.62mm holes in the fuselage? I am not fomenting violence. I am trying to avoid it by being realistic.

I want to see the numbers. It is like the guy who is sure that a single nuke submarine could dock in Manhattan and plug into the grid and supply all five boroughs with 100% of the power they need on a hot, July day.

Sounds great but is pure fantasy.


  1. Bayway refinery in Linden NJ has 300k/day capacity, very close to NYC, and yes it can be smelly when the wind is right.

  2. Air shipment would not work, there aren't enough airplanes in the inventory to do that, nor is the packaging sized for air shipping anymore.

  3. Rail? Hard to stop without real damage.

  4. Resupply by air shipment? Ask the German 6th Army how well that worked out at Stalingrad...

  5. Okay, I've started to put pencil to paper now that I'm back from vacation . . . and I have some results that I'll toss over the fence to you, probably tomorrow for a Friday or Monday post.

    Angantyr, there is a really good video about air resupply of Stalingrad by TIK over at YouTube. It actually worked fine at another location, but he explains why it didn't there.

    But I said coastal cities . . . and explicitly said non-coastal wouldn't be supplied. And, outside of the cities? Things would be grim.

    1. Point taken on "coastal cities". That is exactly what you wrote.

      It morphed in my mind to the Megalopolis from north of Boston to Savannah, Georgia and pushing up into the Piedmont regions. Then it mutated into the states that host those cities.

      I threw in Chicago because they think being on the south end of Lake Michigan makes them coastal.

      Apologies for the misreading.

  6. John Wilder makes an interesting point about external supplies.

    We SCUBA dived all over those areas.
    Near humans living in surplus, the ocean bed is a desert, scraped clean of all living plants and animals.

    Extending this to the Caribbean, the Mississippi Delta flows many dozens of miles into the gulf. The agriculture run-off destroys everything is its path.

    In both examples, fishing, especially from fuel-dependent boats, is winding-down toward unprofitability... part of the 'food cliff' mentioned during discussions on the excellent blog by BisonPrepper James M Dakin.

    If this thing gets going, say 'goodnight' to the coastal cities and resorts.

    John Wilder makes another intriguing point:
    The numbers of border-jumpers is increasing because latinos and latinas see their homelands as increasingly unsafe.

    So, instead of fixing their problems, they cowardly run away. And so goes 'the land of the brave'.


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