What would happen if we could somehow wash out most of the effects of distance? Would that give us better resolution between the affinity between various states and California?
The bottom axis of this chart is the distance between Los Angeles, the most populous city in California and the most populous cities in the 48 contiguous states + Washington D.C.
The vertical axis is the percentage of the state's population that migrated to California in the past 20 years.
The blue dots are actual data.
The red dots are MS Excel's goal-seek, best fit with the formula of (Average distance for population * Average percentage migrated for population)/(distance^0.954) where 0.954 was the number goal seek found for the best-fit.
The seven highest affinities as measured by distance above the red "prediction based solely on distance" curve are:
Washington DC....11.5%
Oregon.................5.2%
Washington...........4.9%
Mass.....................2.2%
Minn.....................2.1%
Virginia.................1.8%
New York...............1.3%
The seven lowest affinities as measured by the distance the real data falls below the red curve are:
Arizona............-3.0%
New Mexico......-1.8%
Iowa...............-1.7%
Mississippi.......-1.5%
Kentucky.........-1.5%
Missouri..........-1.4%
West Virginia...-1.3%
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