Sunday, April 12, 2020

Growth Rate matters

The good news is that the City of Detroit got their act together and the growth rate for new Covid-19 cases slowed down to 2.3% per day.

Oakland County and Wayne County (less Detroit), the county north-west and south of the City of Detroit currently have fewer cases than the City of Detroit but higher growth rates at 4.5%.

At the high end among the counties with more than 100 confirmed cases are Genesee County (home of Flint, Michigan) with growth rate of 7% and Saginaw County with a growth rate of 8.4%.

There is a lot of slush in these growth rate numbers. They are calculated on the basis of the number of new cases from April 9-through-April 12.

If those growth rates hold, then the number of cases in Oakland County will pass then number of cases in Detroit on April 24.  Wayne County, ex Detroit, will pass Detroit's case count on April 26.

Genesee county (Flint), coming out of nowhere, will pass Detroit on May 24 if growth rates don't change.

Obviously, focus needs to shift to Flint and Saginaw.


  1. I spoke with my daughter today. It was her 40th birthday, so I just had to touch base with my little girl. She lives in Comstock Park, and she and her husband both work in the medical field. They are sleep techs, the people who hook the monitors up to you for the study over night, and then fill out the reports for the doctors who ordered the study.
    She also has a part time job as a house keeper at a local hotel, one day a week,so they get a free room when they want to go out of town.
    Her and her husband are signed up to get training to be able to do some other work for their hospital, part of Spectrum Health, for things like intake, and such. He spent last week working on getting part of the building across the road, which is normally an educational wing, and turning it into hospital type facilities, preparing for an expected rise in cases of the Covid 19 virus. Since their jobs are technically not essential, most people are being told to just wait until the health crisis has passed, until they do their sleep test.
    Of course, with the health crisis, the hotel is also not in need of her services either. But they have a son, age 4, so she is able to be home with him. She normally works the nights when her husband is home, and vice versa. She used to drive up to Fremont for her job, which is quite a haul. Before that, they both worked in Holland.
    She told me that they found it strange that Michigan was so high on the list of states with high numbers of people with the Covid 19 problem. I felt the same, but really had no better guess than her. The only thing I can figure out is that the urban population in the south east is quite tightly packed together.
    No matter what, we will get through this. I do, however, wonder if we will ever know any real truth of things behind both the sickness, and the political attempt at harming the president, no matter how it might harm our economy.
    Because if I was of the conspiracy theorist type, I might think that the Democrats tried to get rid of Trump with the Russian thing, and failed, and so they tried to impeach him, and that was a big failure. So with an incumbent president with the best economy turnaround in, well, ever, he was pretty much a shoe in. With a good economy. But if the economy tanks, what might happen? Just ask George HW Bush, the president with over 90% approval ratings, who a short couple of years later, was defeated by Bill Clinton, because as we know, " it's the economy, stupid."


    1. If the economy tanks, it is incumbent that the blame be placed squarely on the Dempanic.
      But Trump better set the standard quickly.
      I don't trust any data I see form any media.
      I trust the Diamond Princess model.
      When idiots tell me incessantly that the US has passed Italy in deaths, I wish more people knew their geography.


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