Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Bullets, Bandages, Beans and BACON

Bullets, Bandages and Beans are the heart of logistics.

I added the part about Bacon to inform my readers about an impending shortage of bacon.

Not satire!

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) was first identified in May of 2013.

From an article published in early March:

  • Total January pigs lost:  1.3 million
  • Losses suggest a 14.4% year-on-year decline for July 2013 slaughter
  • The average CME Lean Hog Index average for June 17 thru July 15, 2013 was $103.37. A 22.9% increase would put this year’s July average index at $127.00.  
I don’t mean to be alarming with this exercise.  Nor do I intend to be in any way Pollyannaish about this summer’s prospects.  But the numbers are becoming more and more clear and more and more shocking.  Add in record-high beef prices and chicken output growth that has thus far been much smaller than expected and you get a protein supply situation that support this result. 2014 is going to be a wild ride indeed.

The article quoted above only estimates the impact in the month of July.  It could continue to get worse.  So you might want to throw a few extra packages in your freezer if bacon is one of your basic food groups.

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