Wednesday, August 5, 2015
Fearless Political Predictions
Trump: Trump's niche in the political ecosystem is "The Bad-ass Marriage Counsellor". Instead of letting the principals stick to safe, unenlightening small talk, he drags the heartburn issues onto the table. He forces them discuss money, sex, in-laws, who drives the car, who plans the vacation...all the topics that cause the discomfort that energizes the fights.
He is a character of mythic proportions. He causes pain because each candidate is dragged naked into the sunlight and he/she must articulate their positions on a much broader stage than they originally prepared for. He creates opportunity because that larger stage creates room for freedom of expression, a way to differentiate and stand out from the crowd.
The last candidate who offered such comedic relief was an Austrian with a large ego and a Charlie Chaplin mustache. Trump has the ego and silly hair. The Deep State underestimated the Austrian and was not able to manipulate him. They won't make that kind of mistake again. Trump will not get the nod.
Clinton: The difference between the white plate special and the blue plate special is that the extra dollar you spend for the white plate special buys you a clean plate. Hillary is the Thursday blue plate special. She is the hash you first saw on Monday as meatloaf.
Clinton despises the press and that attitude leaks out. In the 11th hour the fourth estate won't deliver the goods for Clinton. She will get the D nomination but not win the general election.
Bush: Were Somerset Maugham alive, he would tell us that Bush's primary virtue is that he is always at his best. Name recognition is the only reason he is in the mix. He will fade away half way through the primaries. He will disappear into the pack. Mega-contributers abandon him when he loses momentum and he does not know how to run low-budget, grass-roots campaign.
The Pack: This is where it gets interesting. Walker, Huckabee, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Perry, Santorum, Jindal, Fiorina, Graham.
Football analogy: Trump's antics opened up the other team's defense. There is room for the ball carrier (whoever has the mike) to break free for some jaw dropping yardage. Risks will be taken. Some will win. Some will lose.
It will be a long, grueling campaign. There will be surprise casualties. Some will hang on long after everybody else has written them off. The ERJ crystal ball tells me that our next president will be one of these candidates.
Any deficiencies the ERJ crystal ball has in predictive capabilities is more than compensated for by its ability to dispense solace. I hope I do not need to use it in that capacity.