Not much to write about today.
Yesterday was a busy day but the "busy" involved other people's stories and I don't have permission to share them.
A house divided
But he, knowing their thoughts, said to them, “Every kingdom divided against itself is laid waste, and a divided household falls. Luke 11:17 ESV
This is pretty much the cross-roads where we sit.
A very large number of people enjoy "benefits" from the public trough. That includes public sector employees as well as private businesses, students and people with lower income.
The public sector employees are saying that they will resist efforts to become more efficient and will openly defy direction from the incoming President.
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| A variation of the water-bucket-balanced-on-the-door prank |
The out-going administration appears to have set as many booby-traps for the incoming administration as possible. It is predictable that the Left-leaning media will blame the incoming administration for the economic turmoil that will result even though they cheerfully accepted Obama blaming every hiccup on George W a full seven years after GW left office.
I am less concerned about cities burning down than the impact this will have on my family. It is a VERY rare family that does not have some members whose rice-bowl will get impacted over the next four weeks/months/years.
The pain will be intense for the people who get pinched while the benefits for the rest of us will be diffused and long-term.
Prospect Theory
Prospect Theory holds that people feel losses three times more intensely than they feel gains. The Feeling-(gain/loss) curve is non-linear and not continuous.
Close to zero, there is no pain-or-joy associated with a loss-or-gain. We don't bend over to pick up a dropped penny because the value is so small that it might as well be zero.
Then, through the mid-range the slope on the loss side of the curve is three times steeper than on the gain side of the curve.
As the numbers get larger they exceed what our brains can comprehend. Winning a billion dollars in a lottery might double our joy over what we would feel if we won a million dollars. If the curves were linear, we would feel 1000 times more joy...but that isn't what happens.
Modern society rakes pennies, nickels, dimes and dollars from us every day. We barely feel it. It takes money from our checks before our employer can print them. They have many mechanisms for putting the losses in the zone perceived as close-to-zero.
On the other hand, the people who benefit from those transfers are constantly reminded of where the money came from. The Matrix amps up fear of what will happen if the gravy-train is derailed. The people who will be inconvenienced when the music stops will not accept it well.
It will be quite a trick if we can boot-strap our way out of the economic pitcher-plant that we are in without causing irreparable pain within our families.
The herd will be thinned. Needs to be thinned... its not an accident. Gotta fight like the 3rd monkey on Noah's ramp.
ReplyDeleteI read that the democrats are making the peaceful transfer of power into a "Day of Mourning" because the democracy part of our Republic's election process worked.
ReplyDeleteThus far, it seems that I have suppressed the urge to make a semi-frantic last minute shopping trip to "get ready " for the big to-do on Monday. I suspect that your characterization is spot on. Maybe maturity is kicking in as I approach the three score and ten mark, I am more at peace, although fairly well situated to warrant a pass on the first round or so. Being confident in my faith, at peace with my family, having cordial relationships with my neighbors is more prep-centric (New word alert?!) than the stuff in the basement.
ReplyDeleteI recall you using the phrase "roll up the sidewalk" as a response to the early and unknown phase of the Wuhan Flu. I have a new metric, having a few hundred gallons of propane is somewhat comforting. It has occurred to me that one .308 diameter hole could make it somewhat terrifying. Not yet time to " Bury the propane tank." But it might be coming ...
A little East of Paris
And yet, as far as I can see it, the only way out of this mess is through it straight ahead.
ReplyDeleteDo the cuts, let the chips fall, deal with the aftermath and go forward.
Anything else is incrementalism and that always fails as a method of recovery.
ERJ, the setting of "booby traps" and civil servants refusing to co-operate with the incoming administration (their employer) is a very bad precedent for future administrations -if one can do it, all can do it.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason, the late Roman Republic seems more and more relevant.
It seems to me that those in the outgoing administration and their lackeys preaching go slow are setting themselves up for at the very least summary dismissal if not civil and criminal charges. And if two or more gather to discuss these things, well, a new application of RICO charges may come in play. And don't lets talk about "Reconciliation". I'm tired of having my shoes peed on and being told 'It's raining".
ReplyDeleteRemember last time, Obama has lunch with a Fed Judge and then he puts a hold on what ever it is the President was doing.
DeleteThen we wait a few months for that hold to clear. Before you know it the 4 years is up!