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| Click on the image to embiggen. Counties with the largest death-rate disparity between Black and White VICTIMS. Blue shaded counties are in states with restrictive gun laws. Pink shaded counties counties in states with fewer restrictive gun laws. |
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| Counties with the smallest death-rate disparity between Black-White victims. |
Key points
The counties with the larger disparities have approximately 6 times the death-rate disparity observed in counties with smaller racial disparity.
Both sets have counties from restrictive and less-restrictive states.
Many counties were NOT included in the analysis because either Black or White death-rates due to homicide were too small to be considered statistically significant.
Data was from CDC for the years 2016-2020 inclusive.
Victims were used as the metric because one can argue about the validity of the "perpetrator" data since the clearance rate for homicides is not 100% but a victim is a victim and their race is what-it-is.
Also, by focusing on the victims, the information is less likely to be perceived as a witch-hunt. By focusing on "disparity" other ambient variables like local economics and availability of drugs are "washed out".
The three states that occur most in "High Disparity" are Illinois (5 times) and Pennsylvania and New York (3 times each). The three states that occur most in "Low Disparity" are Texas and Georgia (4 times each) and California (3 times).
One thing worth noting is that the smaller-disparity, "blue" counties are extremely affluent which might hamper "cloning" their culture to other counties. The smaller-disparity, "pink" counties are modestly well-to-do and it might be possible to identify and replicate parts of their culture to other parts of America.
For pseudo-sophisticates in Northern, urban areas who might otherwise be dismissive of those "backward", Southern states, Clayton County, Georgia was 69% African-American in 2020 and voted 85% Democrat. If they can do it, then why can't every county in Illinois and Pennsylvania (and Michigan) do it?
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ReplyDeleteCrude death-rate is the number of fatalities divided by the population within that group so it is "controlled" or "normalized" for the size of the sub-population.
DeleteMaybe I did not understand your comment?
I'm assuming from the above response that "crude death rates" are included, because (from a naive standpoint) "death-rate disparity" can be 'fixed' by simply ... ensuring more whites are killed, no? So is Clayton a safer, overall, place to live, or is it just a place where the "victim selection process" is a bit looser/more diverse? That and selecting county level could be problematic, if there are certain similarities in all the sub-districts/cities in those counties.
ReplyDeleteI, despite the caveats, still have 'some' issues with only using "victim data" as the metric, too.
"There are lies, damned lies and statistics". You can, effectively, make statistics say anything you want, and I suspect they did just that here (the why is a more 'interesting' question).
But, I get, and agree with, your point nevertheless.
Nothing naive about your understanding. ..."death-rate disparity" can be "fixed" by ensuring more whites are killed. That is true.
ReplyDeleteAs a guy who used to work with numbers, there were often stories in anomalies and in the "contrast", that is, the extreme ends of the scale.
I'm not going to say or type it because I respect our host who has asked us to remain civilized in the comments.
ReplyDeleteThe problem can be isolated and narrowed down to a very small subset of the population. However many ways one wants to dance around the details, its always the same. We're just not allowed to broach THAT topic head on. Its not considered polite. Instead we are supposed to tolerate it among a society that a mere generation ago would not have..?
Yeah, I don't get it either.
The only way to fix a problem is to accurately identify the causes and the relative sensitivity of the output to those causes.
DeleteWhen there is no audience, nobody has a problem admitting that black-on-black violence is MUCH higher than any other. Specifically, young-black-male-directed at-young-black-male violence (with collateral damages to black women and other demographics.)
The entire BLM and Defunding Law Enforcement is really starting to bite the communities that embraced them in their hindquarters.
You are absolutely 110% correct.
DeleteWe have a serious, lethal, deadly serious problem in our society. This problem will kill the host if not addressed (hint: feature, not a bug).
Yet, in our 'polite' society today, we cannot address it directly and name what the problem really is, without major repercussions, up to including incarceration for 'hate crimes' (nevermind the slander charges)! We have to dance around it, come up with euphemisms like "Damned Amish Rumspringer again?"
So we malign a peaceful group of people so we don't offend the violent one? LOL! Progress!
It's reason 12,512,673 why it all NEEDS to come crashing down. You can 't fix what it's become. The host is too far gone, chemo's not gonna cut it. Start Hospice.
I hate to say that, but... it's the truth. There's no fixing it, the differences are irreconcilable.
ERJ to your comment on male- male violence. During my career the girlfriends and mother's were a motivating factor.
DeleteThey would verbally berate their boys if they were not expressing their manhood, kinda like representing the family name.
I grew up in Lubbock county. The city was VERY segregated until the tornado of 1970 forced some integration. Dad was a policeman there from 1965 to 1985ish. He told me the areas to stay away from were mostly the east and north sides of town.
ReplyDeleteAs of 2022, census bureau says 68% white, 8% black, and 38% hispanic. Not sure how it equals 114%.... But if 8% of the city is 300% more likely to be murdered?? wow.
That was the essence of my deleted post. Orange County CA does not have a major Black population nor does it have a Watts or Englewood. There are Hispanic Barrios and major Asian enclaves (by nationality), and Blacks are more likely to be tradesmen or professionals there. All that and they are still 2x more likely to be murdered than whites.
DeleteThe color of skin does not determine crime rate. Culture does.
ReplyDeleteBut the ugly reality in America is that black culture is a violent culture. Pretending that reality isn't true serves nobody.
What's the definition of "Blue shaded counties are in states with restrictive gun laws"
ReplyDelete