Continuation by other Memes gone.

Continuation by Other Memes blog is gone.

Does anybody have any information?

Pictures

I came down with the cold that has been working its way through our house.

So, instead of finely honed argument and social commentary, you get some photos.

Lactus biennis. These are an honest 10' tall from ground to top of the raceme

Rosa canina

Rose Rosette Disease virus (tentative ID)

Buck was here. Stem that he polished was 3" diameter willow.

Hawthorn (Crataegus), species unknown.

"Does this make my rear-end look phatt?

 

Do these tires make my rear-end look phatt?

Orchard Photo

You can click on the image to embiggen it.

A picture of the Hill Orchard at The Property I am managing. I snapped the image from a rise on the other side of the depression at the bottom of the Hill Orchard. It would be more precise to call the Hill Orchard the Hillside Orchard...but what the heck. It is on a slope.

Rows of trees marked by a cover-crop/food-plot of kale, turnip and radish as well as tall, annual grasses. Notable for how the tops of the rows (best seen in the middle row) show much better growth than bottoms of rows. The two tree trunks that frame the image are Black Walnut.

The bones of an old pear tree that was infected with fire blight is near the upper-right corner of the image.

At the top of the frame is the Old Orchard.

The ground looks mighty green for the middle of December.

A very good post

"How being frugal can save a Marriage"

If you only read one thing from this blog this week, jump over to Rural Revolution and read this post.

Some people deal well with change. Others do not. Life can be bumpy and filled with unexpected and unwanted changes.

Frugality is like having an exceptionally buoyant boat as you float down a rushing river. It eases you over rocks and sandbars. You can sustain water sloshing in, over the gunwales. You can even pull drowning people out-of-the-drink IF you have that extremely buoyant boat.

Lack of frugality is like having a kayak with 300 pounds of bricks stacked on the deck. It might be OK in still-water but will be a disaster if anything unexpected happens.

Fine Art Tuesday

 

Rudolf Koller was born in Zurich, Switzerland in 1828 and died in 1905.

Famous for painting realistic rural scenes, primarily of his native Switzerland.

A cow eats its body-weight in green forage every 10 days. It is more economical to walk the cow to the forage than to cut and carry the forage to the cow.

Putting up hay for winter

Cattle were primarily traction animals before the time of tractors. Milk was secondary with meat and leather tertiary products.

If you wanted meat, you poached ;-)

Hat-tip to the unstoppable Lucas

Presented without comment

 

From the Daily Mail

Grab bag: Vocabulary, Factorial behaviors and Invention

Vocabulary

Vocabulary (lemmas) on the horizontal axis, verbal IQ on the vertical

Your verbal IQ goes up one point for every 450 new "lemmas" or headwords you learn.

Often, we will encounter a word that we know but it is dressed up in prefixes or suffixes that disguise that word. So having a firm grasp of prefixes and suffixes is fundamental to being able to peel a newly-encountered word down and decoding it.

Let's take the word "Investiture" for example.

The prefix "in..." is more complicated than most. It can mean "in, on, onto" or "not" depending on the context.

The suffix "...ture" is from Latin and is used to form a noun indicating state, status, condition or quality.

If you guessed that "In..." + "...vest..." + "...ture" has something to do with a change of status related an article of clothing being placed onto an individual, you would be exactly right. The ceremony of putting the robe on a newly minted clergyman or judge and thereby confirming their new authority is called...you guessed it... an investiture ceremony.

From a practical standpoint, if you know 30 prefixes, 100 lemmas and 30 suffixes you have 90,000 functional "words" on-tap. If you learn one more prefix or suffix, it adds 3000 more "words" to your functional vocabulary. There is a lot of leverage there!

The factorial nature of language

Language is how most people think. We have voices in our heads and we process information by transforming it into language and then manipulating (comparing, sorting, combining, assigning value) those verbal representations.

The "combining" part is particularly rich and complex.

Combinations can be described mathematically with "factorials".

Imagine two kids walking to the lunch-line at school. There are two ways they can order themselves. Suzy first and then Mary or Mary first then Suzy.

Now imagine Roger joins them. We have the possibility of Suzy, Mary, Roger or Roger, Suzy, Mary or Mary, Suzy, Roger or Roger, Suzy, Mary or Suzy, Roger, Mary or Mary, Roger, Suzy for a total of SIX different configurations.

The number-of-combinations is mathematically described with factorials.

The symbol for the factorial described above is 3! and it is calculated as 1 * 2 * 3 *....* (total number of elements).

As demonstrated above, 3! equals 6.

4!= 24. 5!=120. 6!=720. 7!=5040. 8!=40,320.

They escalate quickly! Maybe that is why they chose the exclamation point to represent factorials.

Invention

The growth in the physical culture can also be described in terms of factorials. New inventions are typically combinations of preinvented elements. A video-game or other electronic devices is an assembly of various cards and discretes and modules of software.

A person who fiddled with hot-rods in the 1930s understood about carburetors and venturii. Consequently, he had an instinctive grasp of how the shape of airplane wings created lift. He also knew about linkages and bell-cranks and wire clips and a host of other mechanicals. When presented with a novel problem, like how to fire a M-2 remotely, he had a mental parts-kit of gizmos he could tinker-toy together to create several workable solutions.

Had that exact, identical fellow been born in 1770 or a contemporary culture without carburetors it is highly unlikely that he would be able to synthesize a solution because "he lacked the intelligence".

The break-out effect

Since the rate of invention explodes due to the ability to integrate pre-invented components, it is possible for cultures with very similar resources to exist at very different levels of wealth. The wealthier culture either started inventing first or invention was more geographically concentrated so new-inventions were rapidly communicated to other inventors who could then implement them in their gadgets.

The Flynn Effect

Image from Wikipedia

The Flynn Effect is the observation that if the parameters used to quantify IQs in 1997 were applied to the results of test scores from 1932, the average 1932 test taker would be assigned an IQ of 80. That is, "IQs rose by 20 points in roughly 65 years).

One possible reason is that we are now immersed in language (both written and oral) and that we have a wealth of "gizmos" to play with. The kid taking the IQ test in 1932 (often in the military) did not have the level of exposure to language and the written word that somebody living in a world where there is a TV or computer in every room is soaking in.

Pollard

Images "grabbed" from this video at about the 7:10-to-8:00 mark

Same grove, different angle.

These trees are approximately 50km west-southwest of downtown Santander, Spain.

This is what ancient trees that have been trained as "pollard" look like. The constant cutting keeps them juvenile even though the trunks are over a half-century old.

When pollard trees are "let go", the limbs become too heavy and the tree splits apart. These trees need to be maintained with the same management system or they self-destruct.

These trees are most likely sweet chestnuts or oak.

The wood likely would be used for fuel, shepherd crooks, small wood for fences and chicken-pens.

One more party in the rear-view mirror

My contribution to the feast

Today was when my side of the family celebrated Christmas.

Mrs ERJ was feeling under-the-weather so I went "stag". Five pounds of cooked mac-n-cheese disappeared. I saw two kids where that was the ONLY food on their plates.

There were seven tots whirring around the house. Three of them were between the age of two-and-three. It seemed like far more.

A couple of the moms were playing this game with their kids. You can see that I am an acorn that didn't fall too far from the tree.

White Elephant gifts were exchanged.

I ate too much. I would have enjoyed myself more if Mrs ERJ had been there, but she was not available. I left earlier than if she had been there.

POOF! No Eye-brows!

 

Pro-tip when trouble-shooting gas appliances with delayed ignition and that go "BOOM!" in the night:

Stay more than three feet away when attempting to determine the root-cause.

For the record: The orifices on the burner-tube closest to the pilot light are starved for fuel and Mrs ERJ insists that I take a shower. She claims that I smell like burning raw-hide.

But this is a classy blog. No names will be mentioned in order to protect the innocent.

Illness toppling us like dominoes, Washing Machines and Comments

First, Quicksilver came down with whatever virus is floating around. Stuffed up head. Tired. Cranky.

Then Southern Belle got it.

Then Handsome Hombre.

Mrs ERJ was in full-blown symptoms this morning.

Tick, tock. Tick, tock. Tick, tock.... I am the last man standing.

Washing Machines

Southern Belle purchased a washing machine for $29 at a local big-box store. She doesn't know if it works. It was a machine the delivery team brought back after installing a new machine at a customer's house.

It is a smallish (3.5 cubic-feet), GE with an agitator. The inside is clean although there are suggestions of hard-water deposits inside.

She has two weeks to plug it in and run it to determine if it works. If it doesn't, then she can return it and reclaim her $29 outlay. I am impressed by SB's frugality. New home owners are often really stressed for cash and more than one family has crashed-and-burned when they retain their pre-home-owning spending habits after closing. Even worse, many go into over-drive as they start "nesting" and filling all of that space with shiny, new cargo.

A big shout-out to "Michael" who works outside at Lansing's Westside Menard's. He helped her load it into the back of the truck.

Comments

"Arguing with an engineer is like wrestling with a pig. You both get soaked with barnyard-slop and the pig enjoys it."

Some people like to argue. Maybe they think the person who has the last word "wins". Maybe it is a dominance thing. Maybe it is the roar of the crowd.

For my part, I subscribe to Napoleon's advice "If your adversary is making a mistake, don't stop him." If somebody says something that I disagree with, and if I have already outlined my position and reasons for that position...I just let the mistake hang there. You guys are really intelligent. You will reach your own conclusions. More words from me will not change that.

Biomass producing trees for droughty, mid-Western sites

I am blessed to have a reader who goes by the handle of "Lucas". He is a top-notch researcher and he somehow picked up enough crumbs to figure out my email address. We swap emails on a regular basis.

I mentioned to him that Southern Belle and Handsome Hombre had their eyes on a piece of property and might be interested in planting trees as a hedge against heating costs. That is, planting trees as a future source of firewood. Then I asked "What species will produce the most biomass per acre per year in Michigan?"

Yesterday he sent me a peer-reviewed study written by researchers from North Carolina State University. The authors investigated three classes of trees and their ability to produce biomass when soil-moisure is a limiting factor.

That applies to many sites in Michigan. Over the course of the growing season, it is not uncommon for the evaporation rate to exceed the rate of rainfall by 4"-to-8".

The units are counter-intuitive. Larger values means LESS biomass grown per unit of precipitation.

 The authors divided tree species by the kind of wood they deposited.

Some species like maple and poplar have "diffuse" or indistinct growth-rings. Other species like Oak and Black Locust have very distinct rings. And then there are the conifers like tracheid pores which I think means "cigar shaped".

This is meaningful to me because some of the species that are grown in temperate plantations for biomass include

• Hybrid Poplar (Diffuse)
• Willow (Diffuse)
• European Alder (Diffuse)
• Dawn Redwood (Tracheid)
• Norway Spruce (Tracheid)
• Black Locust (Ring)
• Oak, Red Oak clade (Ring)

Researchers often provide optimum conditions to determine what a species or hybrid is capable of. Under those conditions, hybrid poplar is almost always the clear winner.

Under "real world" conditions where drought is a regular occurence, a mix of Oak, Black Locust, Wild Black Cherry and Pecans might be a better choice.

The successful farmer is the one who selects stock that works for him rather than vice versa.

Thanks Lucas!

Things are settling down around here

Things are looking up at Casa ERJ.

We are up to two working-vehicles.

My truck was in the shop and is now healthy.

Mrs ERJ's mini-van now has a set of new, Pirelli Scorpion All Terrain Tires. They were $20 a piece cheaper last week!

All Terrain tires are a better choice in Michigan than the generic Sumitomo all-season radials that were on it when she bought it. The Sumitomos seem to have a very hard compound that probably wore like iron but they didn't have a very aggressive tread. Mrs ERJ will take a little bit more road noise every day of the week if it keeps her out of the ditch.

Some men buy their woman a tiny, round item with a hole in the middle and a chip of sparkle on it for Christmas. I bought Mrs ERJ FOUR of them. And they are BIG!

Pictures of kids working (link)

Pictures taken in the US between 1908 and 1924. Boys age 4 and 6.

Four-year-old girl. Expected to shuck two-bins of oysters a day

Delivering lunches at the mill

Glass-works in Indiana

Expected to pick between 20 and 25 pounds a day. Ages 5 and 6

Hawthorn Farms tobacco shed. Girls in foreground are 8, 9 and 10

Cotton mill

Aged 6, 6, and 10 working in a vegetable canning factory

Selling newspapers. Wilmington, Delaware

41" tall. Claims to be 6 years old.

Picking shrimp. Boy age 5.

Picking cranberries. She started when she was six.

 

IQ? Genetics? Culture?

This post was requested by ColdSoldier and seconded by Filthie in the comments a few days ago.

I used to work with a gentleman named John Keersmacher. John not only had a Ph.D. from U.C. San Diego but had done post-doctoral work on IQs John had contributed to the body of work that became the book The Bell Curve. John was very generous in sharing his knowledge.

So with very little humility, I might know a bit more about IQs than the average duffer from Eaton Rapids.

I must also share that Mrs ERJ's Uncle used to be a pastor at a church that served Southern University and A&M College in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Southern University is a public, historically Black, Land Grant University. Being in a warm climate, it attracts many students from the Caribbean and from Africa.

Keersmacher's understanding about IQs

A dunce

The only useful predictive ability of a high-IQ is the potential for successfully completing your first year of college.

People WANT IQ to mean far more than it is capable of delivering. It is NOT a prism to a person's soul or worth.

That said, if you cannot successfully complete your first year of college, your chances of becoming a CPA or performing ground-breaking research or getting a Ph.D. is limited...and yet my buddy MTV flunked out of MSU after his first term, joined the military (Go Artillery!), got his CPA and eventually became the CFO of series of multi-million dollar businesses.

The most stable portion of an IQ test is vocabulary.

John claimed that he could estimate a person's IQ within five points by asking them three questions. Then he demonstrated on me. He had a slight advantage because we had worked together. His third question was "Talmud".

After answering, John said "Your IQ is over 115."

"I thought you would answer it to within 5 points?" I protested.

He dodged. "For all practical purposes, all IQs over 115 are equivalent because you all have an almost 100% chance of breezing through your first year of college."

At this point, let me tell you about one of my former bosses, Jim Dimbulb. Jim demonstrated that low-I.Q. people can get through their first year of college if they develop coping strategies.

Every time Jim heard a word he did not understand, he wrote it down. Then he went to a "smart" person in his frat and asked what it meant (giving the context) or he looked it up in a dictionary. Once he heard the word used by a prof (signaling to him that he had to learn it) he was good-t0-go.

The example he gave me was "tenuous", as in "The conclusions reached by Saur and Kraut were tenuous given the limitations of the sample size and lack of controls." Jim was in awe of people who used high-falutin' words like "tenuous" because nobody in his home-town ever talked that fancy.

Low I.Q. people CAN get through their first year of college and later on get an M.B.A.

It is impossible to separate an I.Q. test from the culture

Critics of The Bell Curve wrote an I.Q. test that was virtually impossible for anybody who had not lived within a mile of intersection of Broad Street and Cecil B. Moore Street in Philadelphia to pass.

Culture informs us that "tenuous" is more important than "Sisyphus" is more important than "zyzzyva". At least OUR culture does. Some other culture may place different priorities on what is important to know.

Ultimately, any widely accepted I.Q. test (SAT, ACT, GMAT, GRE) is a consensus of the collection of facts that are a high priority to know in the larger culture.

There ARE racial differences

African-Americans, in aggregate, have an average I.Q. that is one standard-deviation below the total for the U.S. population.

Asians from northeast Asia, in aggregate, have an average I.Q. that is one standard-deviation above the total for the U.S. population.

Same dunce, a few years later

Ashkenazi Jews, in aggregate, have an I.Q. that is two standard-deviations above the U.S. population.

The differences transcend zip-codes and socio-economics.

Aggregate statistics are not everything. There are individual Asians and Ashkenazi Jews who are idiots and there are African-Americans who are geniuses.

Mrs ERJ's Uncle's observations

US born African-Americans deeply resented students from the Caribbean and from Africa (typically British colonies). The foreign-born students invariably "set the curve".

While the highest-performing, native American-born students might get 70% on a test the foreign-born students invariably got 95%-to-100%.

That resulted in the (formerly) smartest students getting a C and the other students who had been comfortable getting a B or a C getting a D or failing.

My wife's uncle attributed it to study habits. If a math teacher assigned problems 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 for homework, the foreign students did ALL of the 27 problems at the end of the chapter. That did two things for them: They really understood the material and the mechanics of solving the problem AND they had a leg-up on the test because the instructors usually chose unassigned problems from the back of the chapter for test problems. The foreign-born students had already solved those problems so there was no choking on the test.

A third bit of information to consider

Jordan Peterson makes the claim that there is no place in modern society for people with the lowest IQs, a quantity that he broadly identifies as the lowest 10%. He points to studies made by the military at the start of WWII as the basis for that claim, suggesting that the military is an analog for modern society.

I respectfully disagree with Peterson's conclusion for the following reasons.

The modern model of "education" is to first soak the student in theoretical and abstract methods and then, if there is time, teach them applications. It is very efficient to print black ink onto white paper and use that as the channel to push information into children's heads. It is efficient from a manpower standpoint (one teacher pushing information at 30 students). It is efficient from a material standpoint (paper and ink are relatively cheap and the book can be used for a decade or more). When it works, it is efficient from a time standpoint since abstract ideas can be applied in a multitude of different situations.

For all of those reasons, the modern model of education is what had to work during a crisis, mass mobilization of an agrarian, civilian population into an industrialized, military population. That is exactly the context when the US Military made that study and reached that conclusion.

There are exceptions to that model

Today, there are hundreds-of-thousands of examples of brain-damaged people who are productive in our modern economy. For the sake of simplicity, let's say that they have the mental capability of an average six-year-old and enough manual dexterity to tie their shoes.

They work in motels changing beds and scrubbing bathrooms. They do janitorial work. They shovel snow. Some of them manually dig trenches or do roofing or "lump" materials at construction sites. Some of them patrol parking lots to pick up trash and provide the illusion of security. Some of them fill cracks in pavement with liquid asphalt. Others work in factories and meat-packing plants.

They were "trained" rather than "educated". Many, many repetitions with one-one-one trainers. And they are stone-cold reliable. They will be making beds exactly the way they were trained until the heat-death of the universe....unless....something changes.

The change could be as simple as the supplier providing the cleaner in a container that is a different color or shape or size. Or it could be sheets that are slightly different. Or the supervisor on the job-site is replaced. Then it is deer-in-the-headlights time.

But to dismiss them as "unusable" is to ignore the context of the original study and to deny the hundreds-of-thousands of EXTREME exceptions. If a person with an IQ of 60 can be a productive citizen, then why can't a person with an IQ of 75 also be productive?

Another Exception

"Africa always wins" is a phrase that gets bandied about. I mostly agree with the statement for cities in Africa, but does it ALWAYS apply?

On-the-whole, the students at Southern University from the Caribbean and from Africa, the ones who "set the curve" are blacker than the native-born Blacks who resent them.

By most accounts, the British Virgin Islands (72% Black), Bahamas (91% Black) and Bermuda (50% Black) are very pleasant and relatively safe places to visit. They are also places that benefited from English Common Law and they did not reject traditional values "and invented their own".

How does one reconcile the reality of those places with the belief that IQ is destiny?

Conclusions

Culture can dominate genetics and IQ if people are willing to make the sacrifices to nurture the culture with the best overall outcomes.

IQ is grossly over-rated.

IQ is not destiny. It does NOT mean as much as most people desperately want it to mean.

A high-IQ politician who rejected traditional values with predictable outcomes

IQ is blind to ability to defer gratification, deal with frustration, to act honorably, to not lash-out at people. Those things are skills that can be learned....which is a function of culture.

Training is grossly under-rated, primarily due to our industrial approach to education.

Training is "Do it this way because it works" and is less fulfilling to the person doing the teaching.

Culture will NOT dominate entropy as long as modern education glorifies "Do it your own way" and "Derive your own solutions" and "Make the song your own by adding a bunch of extra notes."

Part I: Black-White Mortality Differences

Part 2: B-W Mortality Differences: Part 2

Black-White mortality differences in the United States: Part Two

 

In yesterday's post, I wrote about certain causes-of-death that had the largest contrast between Black mortality and White mortality. The reasoning for using that approach was because the differences should be easier to find than for causes-of-death that had smaller differences.

In today's post, I was going to was about the big three causes of death in absolute numbers while still searching for the differences but ran into a few snarls. For one thing, in ABSOLUTE terms, heart attacks, cancer and strokes have a lower death-rate among Blacks than among Whites. The key words are buried in the header of the image at the top of the page "...age adjusted...". We all die of something and healthy people die from body-parts wearing out (dementia, heart attacks and so-on).

The numbers in ABSOLUTE terms (2015-2019 time period chosen):

• Diseases of the Heart: 173/100k vs 216/100k per year for Blacks vs Whites
• Cancer: 154/100k vs 199/100K
• Cerebrovascular Diseases: 42/100k vs 47/100k   Source
  

The picture changes considerably if we look at a single slice-in-time. I chose the "slice" from 45-to-54 years of age because those are peak earning years and there are often children still at home.

• Diseases of the Heart: 134/100k vs 72/100k per year for Blacks vs Whites
• Cancer: 114/100k vs 93/100K
• Cerebrovascular Diseases: 25/100k vs 10/100k

One small, mathematical note: The 100k in the divisor refers to the number of people in that ten-year slice-of-time and not to the total population of all age groups. You cannot simply add-up the death-rates when they are age-stratified.

Access to Primary Care Providers

One of the "contrasts" in the last set of numbers is that the ratio between cancer death-rates is not as pronounced as the B:W ratios for heart disease and strokes.

One plausible hypothesis is that Blacks can get healthcare but they cannot get it quickly. That is, Heart and Cerebrovascular disease are fast-moving and require quicker responses than Cancer.

Detroit, 640k people, 143 square miles and 17 Primary Care outlets according to Google.

Livonia, Michigan, 95k people, 36 square miles and 12 "dots" for Primary Care outlets.

One of my frequent commenters TSgt-Joe used to be a Social Worker in Detroit and in a different post he commented about the difficulty in getting clients to medical appointments. It was not uncommon for a pregnant woman to travel two-hours by bus or ride-share to her appointment. A lot of appointments don't get made when it is that hard to get there.

Another consideration about Heart Attacks and Strokes is that some kinds of elevated-risk can be identified during routine checkups: Inflammation markers like CRP, high blood pressure, lipid-profile, blood-sugar levels, atrial fibrillation and so on.

Why so few Primary Care Providers in the Inner City?

Income tax: Residents pay 2.4% in income tax and non-residents pay 1.2% in Detroit. Other legacy cities also levy income taxes.

Throttled Income: Inner cities have a disproportionate share of Medicaid payments. Medicaid reimbursements are often below the cost-to-provide. PCP in the suburbs have more patients with private insurance to soften the revenue hit.

Crime: Detroit has a violent crime rate of approximately 2000/100k per year

Roads: The roads are not well maintained and eat BMWs for lunch. One doctor who I know personally purchased a used Crown Vic in dark blue to be his daily ride to a hospital on the northern fringe of Detroit.

Few amenities: Restaurants? Barber shops? Retail shops? Maybe a few...but not an enjoyable stroll to-and-from away.

Aging facilities and other infrastructure: Not as nice to work in.

Facilities consolidated into massive outlets: Large, fortress-like facilities lack the collegial atmosphere of smaller, more accessible outlets. People don't like working in a place where they have to walk a quarter-mile through a parking lot or parking ramp and pass through two levels of security.

The one thing that could be changed tomorrow would be to remove the income tax on Doctors, Nurse-Practioners, Physician's Assistants, Pharmacists and Registered Nurses.

Another thing that could happen tomorrow would be to investigate and prosecute perps who commit violent crimes that victimize people working in the  Primary Care fields more vigorously. That would send a message: Do not mug people in certain parking lots or parking ramps. Do not mug people within a block of a PCP outlet or rob drugstores.

Major roads servicing Primary Care outlets could be fixed over a six-month time-horizon.

The other issues fall under the heading of "Culture" and would be slower to address.

Bonus images

SIDS plus Accidental Suffocation death-rates per 100k, 1999-2020

Recommended vax for children 1999. You can click on the images to enlarge them.

Recommended vax children 2018.

Incidentally, all US vaccines have been free of thiomersal (mercury) since March, 2001

Part 1: Black-White Mortality Differences

Part 3: IQ? Genetics? Culture?