Thursday, December 5, 2019

Everything you need to know about the Democratic Primaries

Data from major polls taken since November 21, 2019
Biden and Buttigieg packaged themselves as Centrists. Sanders and Warren as Leftists.

If you combine Biden and Buttigieg's numbers and Sanders and Warren's numbers the Centrists and the Communists are in a virtual dead-heat: 34.7% vs. 33.8%

Biden's polling shows the most bounciness with a standard-deviaiton of 7.0%. Standard deviation is a common way to characterize variation. Warren's polling has the least variation with a standard deviation of 3.1%

The correlation matrix tells us that when Biden stumbles, Buttigieg picks up more of his supporters than Warren and that Warren picks up more than Sanders. Negative correlation is like a teeter-totter; when one side of the comparison goes down, the other goes up.

The correlation matrix also tells us that Sanders and Warren's polling numbers have a correlation of +0.43. A positive correlation suggests that their numbers move in tandem like the tide raising and lowering all boats. Clearly, certain states and pollsters love their (nearly) identical message and other states/pollsters are less enamored.

To date, there has been little to put Sanders/Warren into a zero-sum-game like Biden-Buttigieg. That is likely to change after the first primary and it becomes a cage-fight to collect delegates. At that point, if I were Sanders, I would not drink from the teacup Warren handed me.

Strategically, the Democratic kingmakers have to be thinking of a ticket that is Biden + Sanders OR Warren or Warren + Buttigieg. In the first scenario, I think Warren will get the nod because of age and stability in polling.

1 comment:

  1. All of them are Communists. The only reason any of them poll better than about zero percent is because of the MFM (mother °°°°ing media). We're it not for this treasonous, anti-American fifth column inside the gates, Trump would be polling 75-80 percent, and all of these Democrat Communists would be polling in low single digits.

    If it cones to civil war, the MFM talking heads and their handlers should be the first to be dealt with. Matt Bracken had a clever ditty in his short story 'What I Saw at the Coup' where media heads began the literal sense: "if the media lies, the media dies. You take a side, you are along for the ride".

    Totally works for me.


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