A few thoughts about Bird Flu

Most birds have internal temperatures between 104.9F and 107.6F (40.5C and 42C).

The traditional path for "bird flu" to get to humans is for it to step-down through a domesticated mammal like pigs or cows which have normal body temperatures of 101.6 and 100.8F respectively.

A healthy human has a normal temperature of 97.5F when the thermometer is taken orally and the patient breaths through their nose.

A virus that is genetically predisposed to thrive at temperatures of around 105F will NOT thrive in a human's nasal passages because the temperature of those mucus membranes are always somewhere between 97.5F and the dew-point of the ambient air.

That has two, far-reaching implications. 

One is that the virus will be inefficient at spreading human-to-human until it collects enough mutations to where it can prosper at the lower temperatures found in the human nose. Droplets from sneezes and coughs will lack the very-high virus loading found in the more common Influenza A strains and the common cold.

The second implication is WHERE the pre-mutation virus will thrive. If you are unfortunate enough to be infected by it, it will be happiest in the deepest recesses of your lungs where there is very little air turn-over (no cooling) and where the heart is burning oxygen like a furnace...and like a furnace, generating heat.

Historically

Historically, new pathogens (like when syphilis entered Europe) kill humans very, very quickly. For one thing, we don't have the portfolio of antibodies to protect us against novel diseases.

Another thing that happens is that Darwin starts selecting for organisms that have longer periods when they can spread from human-to-human. That is, Darwin starts selecting for mutation that don't kill off their host lickity-split.

Syphilis went from a disease that killed people in three-weeks to a disease that took two-to-four decades to kill the patient. It went from a disease where flesh was melting and rotting in-place to a disease where it was not immediately obvious that the patient was sick. Just think of how many more chances a patient had to "share" syphilis when he had 40 years rather than a few weeks.

The Pandemic Card

If the incumbent party decides to "play" the Pandemic Card again, they will trumpet the very-high mortality rate of the Bird Flu. At this point, I don't think they will because they are running out of time.

And, for all practical purposes that is likely to be "real".

What they will not talk about is how difficult it is for a human who practices normal, Euro-centric social-distancing to catch the first few strains. Sure, if you are sleeping three-to-a-bunk, are crammed into a camper like sardines and vodka is your primary source of carbs (homeless camps, I am looking at you)...then you are going to have massive issues.

Blue-print for shrinking government

Ironically, the last "Pandemic" gave us a blue-print for shrinking government.

The unions very helpfully went through and charted out "essential jobs" and "non-essential jobs". They created lists of "jobs that can be done from home" which translates as "can be done off-site by anybody".

Nearly all military? Essential!

Post-office? Essential!

EPA? Not essential!

And so on and so forth.