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| This image was sent to me with the heading "Counties with the greatest per-capita of residents over the age of 100" |
It is a weird pattern. Let's talk about it.
Most of those counties have small populations. It would not take very many people over the age of 100 to skew the per-capita numbers a lot. That is a regression-to-the-mean effect. Larger samples tend toward the mean. Smaller samples show more dispersion.
Most of those counties don't have industries or amenities that are attractive to 18-to-65 year olds. No jobs means that many people in that age group will leave. Fewer people in that age group means fewer children. That causes the average age to float upward.
The lack of jobs also creates a moral hazard. Suppose you lived on a farm and a major part of the household income was the Social Security check sent to Granny every month. Now suppose Granny was sitting in her rocking chair up in her bedroom and her ticker gave out while watching Wheel of Fortune. You might be tempted to open a couple of windows in her room and to close the bedroom door, especially if it were cold outside. Hey, nothing wrong with a few more months of those juicy SS checks.
Is it a coincidence that many of those counties are in areas with very low humidity? In time, Granny would mummify and you could close the windows.
Follow-up to the first comment
Posted in the body of this essay because I don't know how to embed images in comments.
If the high longevity in places like western Kansas (for instance) were due to life-styles and values, then I would expect to see lower death-rates for people in their seventh decade of life. Let's compare Kansas (which has many rural counties) with New York state (which has no counties) with high per-capita levels of centenarians.
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| The most rural (i.e., least urbanized) areas in Kansas have a raw death-rate of about 3500/100k for people in their 70s |
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| The most rural areas of New York State have raw death-rates of about 3000/100k for the same age group. |
Also telling is that Large Fringe Metro has the lowest death-rates in Kansas for 70 year-olds at 2650/100k, which is significantly lower than that of the most rural areas. That makes the "...serious cultural differences that foster longevity..." a tough argument to make.
Yes, I know that 70-through-79 year-olds are not over 100, but I needed a large population to work with and I think it is a reasonable proxy.
Maybe the culture in those rural counties make living longer desirable and worthwhile?
ReplyDeleteGreat question. I added some images in the body of the text to address that hypothesis.
DeleteThose three counties in southern Texas are rural and sparsely populated as our host mentions. Ranching w/ scattered oil and gas are the main industries. Not many other jobs unless you count working for the federal, state or local governments. Mom and Pop businesses - yes.
ReplyDeleteAll I noticed from the map was 'almost' a N-S line following the 100th meridian (the wet side/dry side line of the country).
ReplyDeleteERJ, I suspect population density has something to do with it.
ReplyDeleteI do remember a nutritional guy I followed in the past had a complaint about the author of the concept of Blue Zones in that he proposed that the underlying population statistics he used were not correct, thus skewing to one side.
Also retired people tend to move into those rural areas especially if they were raised here and moved to "the big town" when they were young for jobs and excitement. I see a lot of that here where I live. Most of my new neighbors are over 60. Some native but most not. ---ken
ReplyDeleteNot buying. Hawaii is #1, New England has 3 states in the top 10 and 5 in the top 14 for life expectancy. Not sure 'per capita' figures are the issue but something is seriously off.
ReplyDeleteI find the map curious, I'd like to know more about the background data.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget that reaching back 100 years, many areas had less complete records than now.
I've seen supposition that it isn't a coincidence that the areas with the most very old people are also areas with traditionally poor records and substantial pensions for some jobs.
Jonathan
This smells like distance to medical care to me: "Large Fringe Metro has the lowest death-rates in Kansas for 70 year-olds at 2650/100k" I grew up along that line. I had friends in Nebraska that hit 100 before they died. My own grandmothers made it to 99 and 104. One was a dreamer, the other was so tough germs wouldn't stay near her.
ReplyDeleteCurious many the counties in question are relatively similar in size and orientation compared to the rest of the country.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1hu06mf/map_of_the_top_100_us_counties_with_the_highest/
ReplyDeleteSource: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/demographic-and-housing-characteristics-file/age-group-visualization/counties-agegroup-2020.xlsx
Census data in an XL file
https://vividmaps.com/us-counties-with-a-life-expectancy-above-80-years/
over 80 years
https://www.google.com/imgres?q=Counties%20with%20the%20greatest%20per-capita%20of%20residents%20over%20the%20age%20of%20100&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F9%2F9a%2FCanada_2023_Population_Pyramid.svg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FDemographics_of_Canada&docid=-6qZc3alq6--0M&tbnid=LGJKG_amK2i6tM&vet=12ahUKEwjWhtKfmc6MAxWhMdAFHR2iGSwQM3oECF4QAA..i&w=2624&h=2104&hcb=2&ved=2ahUKEwjWhtKfmc6MAxWhMdAFHR2iGSwQM3oECF4QAA
ReplyDeleteYikes. Over 90 options fade fast.
Lucas
That one in Alaska looks like Petersburg. Very small, few jobs other than commercial fishing. Quite a few Norwegians. Odds are the young folks all moved away, and a few old timers are hanging on.
ReplyDeleteMost of the counties shown in South Dakota are reservations. Unfortunately the only thing they seem to produce is graft and corruption. They were once warriors now their children die of the haunta virus.
ReplyDelete