A weekend of culture

We had a pleasant and uneventful weekend.

Yesterday we went over to Mom and Dad's to rake leaves.  It is a family event.  Dad can't quite keep up with the yard work any more.  The fact that he had his 92nd birthday last week might have something to do with it.  Danged party animal.  Still recovering.

He had a recent bout with low blood iron.  The most likely cause appears to be that tiny aspirin tablet he took every day.  Even though it was enteric coated it still allowed small intestinal bleeds to whittle down this iron reserves.

After raking, Mrs ERJ and I went to Grand Rapids.  Belladonna wanted to subject us to culture.  I think she wanted to hang out with us because her left shoulder is sore.  She thinks she has a slight tear in her upper pectoralis major...probably from dwarf throwing.

For whatever reason enormous numbers of dwarfs converged on the front steps of her townhouse on Tuesday night and she had a tremendous workout.  She thinks she might have over done things.

Stool samples.

The first museum we went to was The Grand Rapids Museum of Proctological Sciences.  Surprisingly, this is one of the very few museums of its type in the country.  In the end it did not appeal to my sense of taste.

Then we went to the Grand Rapids Art Museum which was, frankly, easier on the eyes and nose.  Every work of art had the admonition "Do not Touch!".  None of the exhibits at the GRMPS had those kinds of signs.

Mrs ERJ even got in trouble when she attempted to get the mobile that hung from the ceiling to move by blowing on it.  Perhaps it would have been less obvious if she had bothered to extinguish the cigar she was smoking at the time.

It caused Belladonna boundless mirth when this picture caused me distress.

It was painted by Mathias Alten and is titled "Birches in Winter".  Presumably it was painted a year before his death.

The thing I find bothersome is that the trees are very clearly American Sycamores, a tree that is very, very different than a birch.

I suspect they found the canvas when they were cleaning out his studio after his death.  Some low-level clerk at the auction house saw white bark and said "birch" catalogued it as such and the deed was done.

Otherwise, I find the art of Mathias Alten to be to my taste.  Big color.  Minimal fussy detail.  Solid composition.  Realistic looking people and animals.

Much ado about nothing

Seattle "Refuse Fascism" protest crowd shot

Boston protest crowd shot

LA crowd shot.  Significantly, no photos from elevation or a drone to allow independent estimates of attendees.

The suicide squad.

The REALLY big crowds were in Portland!  Oh.  Wait.  These are images from a high school cross country meet in Portland, Michigan.

It is telling when a high school cross country meet at a Division III high school in Michigan pulls more of  crowd than the inevitable wave of history.

Team T vs Team S: How might it play out?

Here is our arena.  It is 1300 feet E-W by 1500 feet N-S.  Both teams are dropped in corners where one road is primarily commercial and the other road is primarily residential.

One scenario has Team T looting the commercial properties before cracking into the residential properties.

"What?" you say.  "Looting is not part of the mission."

This is a classic case of game theory and almost identical to The Prisoner's Dilemma.  Consider the individual actor on Team T.  The actions of the other fifteen team-mates are not under his control.  Those actions are environment.

If the other fifteen loot and he goes out and eradicates Team S then all the good loot will be skimmed and he is likely to be killed.  If he loots then he gets 1/16th of the booty.  Therefore he will loot if the other fifteen loot.

If the other fifteen go out to eradicate Team S and he joins them he might get killed.  If he loots then he gets to skim all of the best merchandise.  Therefore it is very much to loot even if the other fifteen choose to execute the primary mission first.

Every other actor is thinking the same way.  Loot first.  Primary mission afterward.  Loot most lucrative targets first because they will eventually run into Team S and start fighting.

Team S's response depends on how much intelligence they have.  If, for instance, they knew there was a jewelry store, a pawn shop or a party store within sight of the Team T drop-off then their job is easier.  Let's suppose they don't have that kind of intelligence.

Team S bails out of their bus and grabs their gear.  Some of it they sling into the bushes for later retrieval.  They carry the rest of their gear with them.

They move quickly and silently to blocking positions shown by the white arrows.  Remember, it is midnight and most Team T are likely to have lights on their pimped-out AKs.  Their locations should be easy to pinpoint given Team T's lack of sound and light discipline.

Optimum firing distance is probably 50-to-100 yards.  The exact location would depend on cover and having a clean exit route.

The Team S members who went furthest west have the potential to separate Team T from their supplies because they probably lacked the discipline to carry them very far, or cache them effectively.  Fear of being cheated out of the loot ensures that nobody stayed behind to guard the supplies.

If Team S is able to purloin the supplies then Team T needs to start fires to warm themselves.  This neighborhood is in west Detroit and it is cold in early December.  Carbon monoxide might get some of them.  Structural fires might get some.  Movement to get fuel exposes them to  Team S sniping.

Skills vs. Technology

This is a very old argument.  Or, in my opinion, non-argument.

Technology does not compete with skill.  Technology multiplies skill.  Anything times zero is still zero.

Skills can stand alone. 

A mental exercise

45 acres randomly snipped out of a large city.  Businesses along the major streets.  Residential housing on side streets.  Vacant lots where derelict properties had been put to the wrecking ball.

Suppose two forces were to enter approximately forty acres of urban territory.  Neither force had ever set foot on the parcel.

Images from Google Streetview to show what the neighborhood looks like.

Both forces have identical missions, to eradicate every member of the other team either by killing them or forcing outside the perimeter.  Both forces enter the parcel at exactly midnight, December 5, 2017 from opposite corners.  In case the math is too hard, they both have thirty days to prepare.

For the sake of simplicity, let's say the parcel has been completely abandoned by the residents.

Team T: "T" for Technology
Sixteen stone-cold killers culled from prisons across America.  They are between 17-and-27 years of age.

They are given fully automatic AK-47s with thirty round magazines.  They are allowed to carry as many magazines as they want.  They are also given $1000 each to pimp-out their weapon.

Team S: "S" for Skills
Eight soldiers or marines who recently fought together as a team.

They are given NEF Handi-Rifles in .357 Magnum and, as a nod to their training, the sights are switched to rear aperture and hooded, front post sights.  These are "iron" sights with no magnification.

Incidentally, the Handi-Rifle is a single shot firearm that uses a basic design that was first put into production in 1837. I chose the .357 Magnum because it is not significantly more powerful than the ammo used in the Civil War in 1863.

The math
Team T's raw capability is 30*16*14...Thirty round magazines times sixteen sets of boots on the ground times 14X magnification of the scopes some of them bought.  That gives them a score of about 6700.

Team S's raw capability is 1*8*1...One round in the gun times eight sets of boots on the ground times no magnification.  That gives Team S a score of 8.

The odds
The math says 840:1 in favor of Team T.

Our experience tells us 30:1 in favor of Team S.

The difference?  Team S has skills and will make effective use of their month to train, prepare and plan.

Knowledge and technology are nouns.  "Skills" are implied verbs.  Skills are developed through repetition.

Consider the difference between Sex Education and Sex Training.  Sex Education is passive.  And please forgive the humor, Sex Training is hands-on and active.

One scenario of how it might play out

Jonesing for a new firearm

Mrs ERJ walked into the study where we have the computer.  She noticed my wallet was open and my credit card was on the desk.

"Whatchya buying?" she asked.

"Oh, just buying a few magazines." I replied.

"Anything I will want to read?" she asked.

"Probably not." I replied.

"OK.  No biggie.  It is good for you to get stuff that is just for you." she said.

I am not really sure what there is to read on a magazine.

Every once in a while I get to Jonesing for a new firearm.  I think many of my readers feel the same itch.

 If I sit quietly and take deep breaths I can manage the urge.  Often I can defer it to my next check or windfall. By then more immediate needs pop up and I forget about my itch.

One of the items on my bucket list is to get one, or more, firearms that is chambered for 5.56mm NATO ammo.  5.56mm ammo is easy to come by as are reloading components.  In spite of what the mass media outlets say it is a cartridge of very modest power.

Its strength lies in the firearms it is packaged in and the ability of those platforms to send many round downrange with little trauma to the shooter.

Handguns are all well and good, but if you are serious about hitting a target you want a long gun.

Shotguns throw a lot of lead downrange with each pull of the trigger but ammo is bulky, heavy and reloading is tedious.  Studies of shootings suggest that a hit rate of 1-in-10 is pretty common.  A typical shotgun holds five rounds.  You do the math.  The popular press also contends that shotguns have a limited range.  This is less of an issue that it first appears.  Virtually any shotgun will put Foster Slugs into a paper plate at 40 yards.  Virtually any court in the country will convict you of manslaughter if you shoot a goblin at 40 yards unless he is actively shooting back.

Attempting to be clinically realistic here, there is probably a 25% chance that semi-automatic, centerfire rifles will be "illegal" in 10 years.  I don't want that to happen but the possibility is somewhere north of zero.

I know that sounds defeatist and I know that some of my readers are thinking "When they pull it out of my cold, dead hands." but there are some other things to think about.

If you accept that the human is the weak link in the system and that it might become unwise to practice outside with a semi-automatic weapon, what are the other options for the thousand repetitions that you will need to grease-in* the muscle memory that will pull you through sensory distortions caused by a massive adrenalin dump?  How are you going to be able to maintain that muscle memory?

The magic of the Mossberg MVP series is that they are designed to accept AR style magazines.

It is not semi-automatic but it is not very long, not very heavy and will accept a Red Dot scope.

20 rounds of 5.56mm is nothing to sneeze at in the hands of even a moderately competent shooter.  To give you a sense of perspective, the .44 Remington Magnum (Dirty Harry's handgun) maxes out at 24 grains of powder and the 5.56mm round comfortably holds 25 grains of powder.

The .44 Magnum holds the edge when you have grizzly bears coming through the window that that is rarely the problem.  The 5.56mm NATO round certainly it has more than enough power to readjust the priorities of Hominid goblins at ranges of 5-to-500 feet especially when loaded with a tough +55gr soft-point or a mono-metal bullet.

I don't have the budget to buy the entire rifle but I had enough extra in my checking account to buy a few magazines.  I figured I better pick them up while things are calm. And I did pick up a few 10 round magazines, just in case.

*"grease-in" is a term that is rarely used any more.  Presumably from the application of "elbow grease", another term you don't hear much anymore.  If any of my worldly readers have a better explanation for the origin of the term "grease-in" I would love to hear it.

Trends in terror attacks

1987

Significant terrorism from Panama-through-Peru, centered on Columbia.  Also seen is some activity in southern India due to violence against the Tamil minority precipitated by competition for resources.

2015

Columbia still a hot-spot.

Enormous increases in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan and eastern India and the Philippines.  Also a swath from Kenya, across the Sahel to Togo/Benin.

The Ukraine and the trans-Caucus have some "action".

Notable "cool" spots are the interior of western India, Iran and Indonesia.  Iran and Indonesia's coolness might be due to deficiencies in reporting while the increases in the Sahel might be to improved reporting.

Animation HERE

Emptied out the hazelnut nursery

28 hazelnuts planted along the old barn foundation...about one every 20 inches.

Two of them had egg masses.  I think they are Praying Mantis eggs.

Three of them had catkins.

This is how mass selection works.  You plant them very close together.  In fact, you plant them so close together that they are almost too close to bear.

Then you cull, and cull and cull some more.  Any excuse is good enough to give them a dose of Chainsaw-a-mycin.  Two years of average or below average production?    Slow to come into bearing?  Unpleasant membrane around the kernel?  Small nuts?  Disease problems?   Ying-ying-ity-ying.