Is Iran playing 3-D Chess?

The Iranians have a network of thuggish terrorist groups throughout the Arabic speaking world, from Lisbon-to-Jakarta.

Somalia imports 75% of the food (on a calorie basis) in a normal year. Droughts and accelerating environmental degradation from over-grazing and civil-war put the 25% they do grow into free-fall. When compared to other very-poor nations, Somali corn (maize) yields are 20% of their median yields on a per-area basis.

The Iranians, through their proxies (Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi in Yemen) virtually shut-off the Suez canal. Lloyds of London will only tolerate so much of an ass-whipping with regard to piracy and damaged ships.

World prices for Wheat.

Wheat which is primarily purchased from Ukraine and Russia and shipped from the Black Sea through the Suez Canal to Mogadishu spiked in 2022 and is jumping up again due to the increased shipping costs. 

Another concern is that there is a shortage of ships that can move the grain. If it takes five times longer to ship around the Horn of Africa then it takes five times as many ships to carry the grain. So not only is the price rising but the flow is choked to a trickle.

Over 70% of the typical Somali income is spent on food. They cannot absorb a doubling in the cost.

Link

So what happens next???

Minnesota. Europe.

Probably something on the order of 12 million refugees who cannot even get along with other Somali (civil war, don't you know).

Bank on it.