Communication Part II (What if you are wrong?)

So what are some of the "tells" of communicating in the Adult ===> Adult mode?

Adults acknowledge that there is a real possibility that they might be "wrong". Work done by Fischoff, Slovic and Lichtenstein in the mid-1970s showed that nearly all humans are fairly well calibrated for when we are 50% likely to be right. But nearly all humans are grossly miscalibrated when the actual likelihood is 80% or higher. That miscalibration manifests as Absolute (but inappropriate) Certainty that we are right.

80% certainty implies that one-time-in-five when we think we are right, we will actually be wrong. The feeling that you are 100% SURE you are right is a systemic error and the prudent negotiator will hedge his bets and not burn the bridges behind him...because there is a one-chance-in-five* that he will need to use them.

Example:

If I join two 96" long 2-by-4s together, end-to-end, how far apart will the opposite ends be?

A: 192"

B: 185"

C: 135"

D: None of the above

E: Any of the above

*****

What certainty do you assign to your answer:

99.99% (One chance in 10,000 that you are wrong)

95% (One chance in 20)

90% (One in 10)

80% (One in 5)

If you were to ask a carpenter, he would ask if he was allowed to use a third piece of 2-by-4 to scab them together. If he was allowed a 14" piece of 2-by-4 then the answer is (A). If he is not allowed the third piece then he has to overlap them by 7" so he has room to shoot 5 deck-screws to join them "end-to-end" and the answer is (B which is 192" - 7").

If one of the 2-by-4s is a vertical stud and the other is a horizontal header then the answer is approximately 135". That would be of interest to an engineer "hardening" the structure for seismic loading with diagonal bracing.

If you were an electrician, you might use the the taxi-cab distance of 192" (even though the studs are at right angles to each other) and then add 6" at each end to comply with the National Electric Code (so defective or worn-out equipment can be replaced).

You can have impeccable logic and a brilliant intellect but if your starting premises are tainted or incomplete or lacking context then your conclusions will also be tainted. It is not that you are damaged or worthless or stupid. Prideful people might assume that...which will impale them upon the stakes of minutia. You just need to be able to keep an open mind and be able to inexpensively revise your direction. Don't go down with the ship!

*Like most bell-shaped curves, the population at 80% certainty will be several orders of magnitude higher than the population at the extreme end 99.99% certainty. There is no need for fancy math. Just plan on one-bean-in-five making you fart.