It was everybody's expectation that when Anti-Skid Braking became standard equipment in virtually all US automobile production, that there would be a large drop in traffic accidents.
It did not happen.
Drivers normalized-the-risk in the sense that their driving habits changed such that the overall gain from ABS technology was absorbed by driving more quickly on slippery surfaces and leaving less space between the vehicle with ABS and the vehicle in front of it.
There was virtually no gain from going from zero air-bags to one-to-two to a half-dozen. The big gain was from mandatory seat-belt wearing and baby-seats.
Similar things happen with drugs. A person who is struggling to control their blood-sugar goes on metformin or some other drug...and some of them don't show the improvement that was expected. They "swooned" and said "Catch me, catch me..." and stopped watching their diets or exercising.
Ditto for statins.
The reason I bring this up
This is a giddy time for conservatives. It is pretty easy to just assume that things will turn out fine because we ended up with the more conservative of the two candidates.
But the cold reality is that a lot of can-kicking is running out of road in the next four years.
Eaton County Sheriff's department eliminated their midnight shift of parols a couple of years ago and is eliminating their second-shift in the November-December 2024 time-frame. They are staggering the start of their day-shift so they have twelve hours of coverage from 6:00AM-to-6:00PM. But if the SHTF after 6:01PM, we will have to wait until a State Trooper shows up.
The primary driver in this is the unfunded healthcare liabilities for early retirees. According to Unfunded Michigan Eaton County has $60.4M in projected healthcare benefits and $10.1M in assets to cover those benefits for a funding ratio of 16.7%.
Let me point out the obvious: Public sector employees retiring after 25 years can be "pulling" $23,000 in healthcare benefits a year from age 45-to-65 AND NOT WORKING.
Another point that should be obvious is that retirees are not dues-paying-members of the union and don't get to vote on the contract. The cost of those generous benefits are causing voting union members to be laid-off. That will create an interesting tension.
Another source of tension is that legal action must be initiated at the county level and the judges are employees of the county and get benefits from the county. They are very unlikely to recuse themselves due to conflict-of-interest. It seems improbable that judges close to retirement will support changes in contractual language that cuts benefits to retirees (even if they are renegotiated every contract cycle).
Pro-tip
In the summer, keep at least forty pounds of ice cubes in your freezer. That way you can keep the home intruders' remains from putrefying overnight while you wait for the cops to show up to collect evidence and take a report.
Biggggg fan and I love your blog, but man you hit a nerve.
ReplyDeleteI know this wasn't the main point of your article but,
I worked 15 years doing that stuff, retired healthy, and with semi sound mind.
I do not have any medical benefits.
The only ones who retired with medical benefits from our department are the ones whose injuries were so bad the were forced to retire.
I have watched my coworkers die of cancer from the days when we went into active or burning meth labs, I have seen my partners pulled out of wrecked cars, injured in fights with suspects. Mental health issues from trauma at homicide or violent crime scenes, not to mention the time lost with family and friends while working holidays and nights.
And all this while the state provided the inmates with free food, housing, medical and dental care, sex changes, schooling, training, lawyers to file repeated appeals, lawsuits, on and on.
Instead of cutting officers shifts, try cold balogne sandwiches, no cable, work crews maintaining roads, and infrastructure.
I apologize but it certainly isn't your deputies fault. Plenty of cuts could be made elsewhere, rope is cheap and reusable.
Anon, you don't live in Rhode Island. There, a huge number of guys scam "disability" retirement for bogus injuries and then take other jobs that require excellent physical health.
DeleteI don't blame the deputies.
DeleteThe county is making cuts where it will hurt the residents them most because we "failed" to pass a millage increase.
It is like when the State ALWAYS closed the highway rest stops when they had budget problems. It didn't save any money but it punished the citizens for not writing bigger checks to their "betters".
In accordance with Anon 1918 hours observations, I certainly comprehend your point. Well states, and on topic. OTOH, I guar-an-darn-tee you that should (say...not that I, personally, would have any experience relevant to the following point...) a medic be unable to retire with medical after (if a medic actually GOT retirement!) 30 years, said medic would (a) be on medicaid, and (b) absolutely NOT work out his/her/xir 30 years.
ReplyDeleteNot, of course, that there is a medic in Michigan who does, indeed, work 30 years on the road. Those that do, sort of, are
firefighters, and have firefighter pensions.
And, that is another occupation that doesn't hit 30 years on-the-road.
None of which changes your point about unfunded liabilities.
If public safety folks need, and deserve (for whatever value of "deserve" works for you) a pension and medical, after X years on the job, then the city council/county board/state legislature has an affirmative duty to fully fund that benefit.
Unless, they are so retarded (no offense intended to folks who are, honestly, retarded) that neither the charlatans enumerated in the previous paragraph, nor their staffs, can comprehend the concept of "actuarial table".
Which (in my view) ought to be both a civilly as well as criminally actionable tort/criminal offense. With the perps having their personal assets at risk.
I think that in many cases unfunded, Federal mandates ate the budget that COULD have been pumped into funding those promised benefits.
Delete"Here, take these 4500 immigrants who speak Nepali or Pashtun or Palaung or Haitian Creole, hire interpreters and supply them with all of their physical and emotional needs"
"Hey, these kids think they are monkeys. Provide them with safe spaces..."
"Paint the street crossings with expensive, exotic colored paint"
Why keep ice?
ReplyDeleteI have a backhoe.
And no one knows they were at my house....
Just sayin'
theoretically.
Plant an endangered species over the burial site to make exhumation a felony.
DeleteLarge breed pigs like Old Spot will enjoy the overnight snack.
DeleteThat much ice is problematic for some. Would a liberal covering of salt work just as well? Asking for a friend.
DeleteQuick-lime
DeleteBut bury them standing up. Then plant that endangered tree. but surround it with lots of endangered plants also.
DeleteSafety devices, on their own, make little difference - it is training and surveillance to use them properly and to enforce their use that make the difference.
ReplyDeleteIn recent years, I've seen a decline in seat belt use as part of a decline in obeying laws and regulations seen as arbitrary or purely revenue generators.
It's part of the continuing societal breakdown...
You are right, lots of things are coming soon that MUST be dealt with.
One is that the country has been in a recession for the last couple years, masked by massive government spending; if Trump doesn't deal with it quickly and get the pain over with, it'll pull Republicans down in 2028 (and it's effects will be worse when it does hit).
Jonathan
What cannot continue will not. The profligate spending by both governments and people for the past half century or more has placed the US at a point where our currency and therefore our economy has to collapse. It's now unavoidable. Not an if....but a when. And that when is very soon. That is If the left doesn't succeed in kick starting a nuclear war during the lame duck season.
ReplyDeleteWinner winner chicken dinner!
DeleteWhy do you THINK they're starting WW3? What does EVERY Government ever in the history of history do when things are so bad it's going to collapse all around them?
They start a war...
Half of me thinks Cheeto Jesus is in on it. Let the lame duck take all the blame, we'll make hay out of what's left.
"The primary driver in this is the unfunded healthcare liabilities for early retirees"
ReplyDeleteEverything connected to the government is a scam.
With the looting in Valencia, Spain I wondered why the death toll wasn’t higher. More bodies to pull out of the mud and try to identify. That’s more difficult if no one reports them missing.
ReplyDeleteRetired firefighter here. Worked two jobs so my wife could stay home and school the kids and to get a little social security boost on retirement. No medical coverage when I retired. Signed up for social security, found out that because I was a public service retiree with a pension social security was cut by at least 2/3. Then medicare comes along and takes another 1/3 of that. I'm doing okay, but man do I hate government! Oh, and about the statins - I wouldn't take one of those if my life depended on it, and the doctors are trying to convince me it does. No chance! Do your own research and you'll see.
ReplyDeleteAnon 8:26 - Looked up my county's retirement plan.
ReplyDeletePolice and Fire Retirement Fund (PFRF)
A retirement and benefit fund for sworn members of the Divisions of Police and Fire and Emergency Services. Benefits include a monthly annuity, health benefits, survivor benefits, family insurance programs, and dental insurance programs.
While we don't have the highest paying jobs in our area we also have low housing, rent and general cost of living. Live in 2 bd, 2bath, 1300 sqft home. Rent is $650. We are staffed 24/7 and with 25 policemen and they are looking for more with a $4,000. bonus. In 2023 we had 2 murders along with a year or so prior we had none. So not at all a violent town. No street corners with gangs, no spray paint on bldgs. One place to drink. We did have two but the other had to go out of business due to lack of customers. Nice little town to live and retire to.