Saturday, March 1, 2025

"No Deal" is better than a "Bad Deal"

Zelensky went "weasel" in front of TV cameras while negotiating with Trump. It did not end well for Zelensky.

From Zelensky's standpoint, he is running out of road to kick the can down. He is running out of Ukrainian cannon-fodder (to be expanded upon later) to feed the Russian killing machine. He is living hand-to-mouth on war-time consumables.

The US green-lighted the Russian invasion when Biden told the Russians the US would tolerate minor incursions by Russians on Ukrainian soil. The Russians did not need any encouragement. Then the US media and politicians acted all surprised and horrified as it happened.

Zelensky knows that he will likely have a short lifespan after he gives up the reins-of-power and have his Trotsky moment. At this point, he is a one-trick pony. He bet all of his poker chips on the war and he has to keep the war going. 

Both he and Trump know that if American combat boots hit Ukrainian soil and one soldier or Marine dies, then it will be almost impossible for the US to gracefully extricate itself from the war on the Asian land-mass. That would be very much in Zelensky's favor. It would suck for all Americans.

Committing US troops is a "sticky decision". Once made it is very complicated to reverse.

So, at the last seconds in the Rare-Earths-for-Munitions deal, Zelensky DEMANDED American combat troops.

I am not sure Zelensky had any other viable options. The "demand" was probably floated early in the negotiations for the deal and instantly shot-down. Zelensky NEEDS those troops, so he thought he could bull-through at the last moment, figuring that Trump would cave to save the deal (and face). Zelensky rolled the dice and didn't get lucky, this time.

Regarding running out of cannon-fodder. I was surprised to learn that the Ukrainian military draft applies to men 25 years of age (and older). The idea of lowering the age to fill the manpower gap has been floated but not acted upon. So Zelensky is unwilling to commit HIS country's 18-through-24 year-olds but he has no qualms about demanding that the United States sacrifice OUR 18-through-24 year-olds to save his skin. Pretty bad optics there, Volodymyr.

One a more cheerful note

Nicotiana rustica "Limonka"